January 6, 2019
Summary: Storm number one has already moved into eastern Nevada and southeast California. In the meantime, storm number two is spreading precipitation over northern California. Doppler radar indicates precipitation is as far south as Salinas with even a few sprinkles down to Merced County. During the later morning and afternoon hours, periods of light rain will spread over central California. On and off precipitation will continue tonight and possibly into Monday morning along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley. There are fairly significant isobars on the surface weather models this morning. This will create some fairly strong, gusty winds from Fresno County northward and along the west side. Gusts to 40 MPH would not be a shock along the Interstate 5 corridor. There’s also a small chance of strong, gusty winds at the bottom of the Grapevine, possibly gusting to 40 to 50 MPH tonight through Monday night.
A short lived upper level high pressure will follow Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. another rapidly moving trough will move in Wednesday and Wednesday night. the latest models show the stronger dynamics moving just north of our region, so only light amounts of precip are expected, especially south of the Fresno/Tulare County line.
Models have really changed the outlook for Friday through Sunday. A strong trough is projected to move through with at least a chance of precipitation and possibly significant precipitation Saturday through early Monday. Next week may be active as the two week model continues to point towards above average precipitation, especially over the southern half of the state and into the Desert Southwest.
Recently, this parade of storms has acted somewhat similar to an El Nino year, which we are in, though it is weak.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this morning. Periods of light rain will spread over the valley later this morning an dinto the afternoon. Periods of mainly light rain tonight into Monday morning. Mostly cloudy Monday afternoon. Becoming partly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with light rain becoming likely Wednesday and at times Wednesday night into Thursday, especially from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Thursday through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday. Rain at times Friday night through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/48/62/46/62 | Reedley 56/47/62/47/63 | Dinuba 54/46/62/47/62 | |
| Porterville 56/47/62/47/64 | Lindsay 55/46/63/47/64 | Delano 56/48/62/49/63 | |
| Bakersfield 57/50/62/49/65 | Taft 57/51/62/50/65 | Arvin 57/50/62/49/66 | |
| Lamont 56/49/62/49/63 | Pixley 56/49/62/49/63 | Tulare 55/47/62/46/62 | |
| Woodlake 55/47/62/47/63 | Hanford 55/48/62/48/63 | Orosi 56/46/62/46/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Light rain likely 48/62 |
Thursday
Showers possible 47/61 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 42/62 |
Saturday
Rain likely 50/63 |
Sunday
Periods of rain 49/62 |
Two Week Outlook: January 12 through January 18: This model continues to indicate above average precipitation during this period, especially over the southern half of California and the Desert Southwest. Generally speaking, the flow aloft during this period will be out of the west or southwest, resulting in above average temperatures.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast through late tonight at 5 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH along the west side with gusts to near 35 MPH possible. Winds will decrease Monday afternoon with winds of generally at or less than 15 MPH Monday night through Tuesday night. winds Wednesday will again be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts possible.
Rain: Periods of rain will spread in from the west/northwest as the day progresses. Expect periods of rain to continue tonight through at least Monday morning. The chance of shwoers will decrease by late Monday afternoon with dry weather Monday night through Tuesday night. rainfall from this system will be quite significant over northern California and possibly from Fresno county northward as much as .33 could fall. The west side of the valley will be in a rain shadow, reducing amounts there to probably less than .20 in most locations. The eastside from roughly Lindsay north may tally up .25 or so.
Dry weather will return Monday night through Tuesday night.
The next system will drive most of its stronger dynamics into northern California. Light precipitation will be likely Wednesday and Wednesday night with amounts north of Tulare County probably no more than .25 or so. Dry weather will return Wednesday night through Friday night. a more dynamic Pacific storm will move in Saturday for the possibility of significant rain, especially over the mountains and, to a lesser extent, over the valley floor. The chance of on and off rain will continue at times through next Monday.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 tonight and will be above freezing through the coming week and more than likely beyond.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 80%/100%, Bakersfield: 65%/100%
Actual Humidity January 5, 2019: Delano, 95%/30% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .35, Parlier .34, Blackwell .42, Lindcove .33, Arvin .38, Orange Cove .36, Porterville .NA, Delano .37 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 46, Blackwell 49, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 49, Orange Cove 51, Porterville NA, Delano 44
Record Temperatures: 73/17. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 933 -304
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 42.8 -1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 2.63 season. or -1.20, Month to Date: .30 -.06
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.40, or -.75. Month to Date: .10 -.09
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 513, Parlier, 504 , Arvin, 486 Shafter, 506 Stratford, 472, Delano 496, Lindcove, 684, Porterville, 881
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:59 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:45
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 44 / 0.15 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 40 / 0.18 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 33 / 0.09 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 32 / 0.20 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 62 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 58 / 39 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 61 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 56 / 36 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1516 / 61 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.01 5.89 115 1.25 24 5.14 14.06
MODESTO 0.11 4.60 103 1.33 30 4.46 13.11
MERCED 0.16 4.03 99 1.35 33 4.06 12.50
MADERA 0.15 3.14 73 0.55 13 4.29 12.02
FRESNO 0.18 2.51 66 0.48 13 3.83 11.50
HANFORD 0.09 1.96 54 0.80 22 3.62 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 1.30 60 0.07 3 2.15 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.57 85 0.16 9 1.84 5.18
SALINAS 0.10 4.87 113 1.07 25 4.30 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.27 3.87 95 0.37 9 4.08 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.57 3.31 74 0.43 10 4.47 13.95
Next report: Monday morning, January 7