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Forecast

January 12, 2019/report

January 12, 2019

Summary: The latest storm which is currently affecting southern California and parts of central California is centered right near Santa Barbara at this hour.  This system has been a complete wash out for much of central California with the exception of the west side, the valley portion of Kern County, and the Kern County mountains.  The east side of the valley north of Visalia was pretty much precipitation free outside of a few sprinkles.  Precipitation has been very  heavy over parts of the mountains and coastal areas of southern California where as much as three inches of rain has fallen just over the past six hours.

 

The low is projected to weaken and move slowly through southern California today and into the southwest Sunday.  The reason why precipitation did not spread into the remainder of the area is a high pressure system centered over Montana and Idaho blocked these types of systems even though the low tries to track under the high.  The bulk of the precip then moves through southern California.

 

We may very well have the same type of challenge with the next storm.  Models yesterday were indicating precipitation would spread over the area tonight, but now it appears we may be dry through Monday as the main dynamics may be squeezed south into southern California. By Tuesday, the high over Idaho is projected to break down, allowing the storm track to move back into central California.  Periods of rain will occur Monday night through Wednesday night and could be locally heavy at times, especially along the east side.  The challenge, however, may be with potential rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County.  In some cases, they can extend out over into the east valley, as well.

 

By late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, a very impressive storm system will be just west of the central Oregon coast with a moist, powerful jet stream flanked underneath the low and into central and southern California.  This flow will come in perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada which could mean impressive amounts of rain and snow over the Sierra Nevada late Wednesday night through Thursday night.

 

Models still indicate this pattern will end Friday as upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific extends northward.  It appears a dry cold front may move through Sunday, but at this time, it appears to be rainfree.

 

Models for the following week indicate the  high probability of dry weather will continue with a great deal of fog and low clouds.

 

It still looks like arctic air will dive southward from the 22 through the 26 through the Rockies and the Midwest.  As of now, strong high pressure over the western one-fourth of the U.S. would keep this air mass to the east of our region for above average temperatures, though that will depend on fog behavior.

 

Forecast: Showers this morning, mainly south of Fresno County.  Mostly to partly cloudy this afternoon.  Mostly to partly cloudy tonight and Sunday.  Areas of fog and low clouds will be possible late tonight through Sunday morning.  Partly cloudy Sunday night with areas of fog and low clouds developing.  Mostly cloudy Monday.  Periods of rain Monday night through Wednesday.  Rain, heavy at times, Wednesday night through Thursday night along with strong, gusty winds at times.  Mostly to partly cloudy Friday through Saturday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 61/37/60/43/57 Reedley 61/39/60/45/57 Dinuba 60/37/60/43/56
Porterville 61/40/60/45/56 Lindsay 61/38/61/45/57 Delano 61/41/60/47/58
Bakersfield 61/43/60/49/59 Taft 61/44/62/48/58 Arvin 60/42/62/48/58
Lamont 61/44/62/49/59 Pixley 60/39/60/44/57 Tulare 60/38/60/45/56
Woodlake 59/39/61/46/56 Hanford 60/40/60/46/57 Orosi 59/37/60/44/57

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Periods of rain

48/60

Wednesday

Periods of rain

49/64

Thursday

Heavy rain possible

51/63

Friday

Mostly cloudy

39/60

Saturday

AM fog/PM sun

42/62

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 19 through January 25:  This model indicates strong upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the western one-fourth of the U.S.  Temperatures above the fog and low clouds will be above average.  Temperatures on the valley floor will be determined by how widespread and persistent the fog and low clouds are.  The chance of rain during this period will be quite low.

 

January:  This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies.  There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.

 

January, February, March:  The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days.  Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.

 

Winds:  Winds will generally be out of the east to southeast today at 5 to 15 MPH.  there have been some locally gusty winds in Kern County over the past several hours.  The CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine had a peak gust of 32 MPH, Lamont 36 MPH, Mettler 32 MPH, Edison 21 MPH, and Bakersfield 33 MPH.  as the low off the south coast moves inland later today, these winds will subside.

 

Winds tonight and Sunday morning will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Later Monday through Tuesday, winds will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side.  There’s also a chance of gusty winds in the same areas that have been affected overnight.  Winds over 40 MPH wouldn’t be a surprise later Monday through Tuesday.

 

Rain: The behavior of this past storm has been pretty much on track with the bulk of the rain confined to the west side and the south valley.  Territory from Fresno County northward was pretty dry, as was the Sierra Nevada.  The center of circulation of this storm is currently just west of Santa Barbara.  Areas of showers are moving from southeast to northwest across portions of the south valley this morning, but will slowly end as the day progresses.  Expect dry weather from later today through probably Monday.  This next storm may have the same problem as the current one, a blocking high centered over Idaho which is forcing storms further south into southern California.  That high will not break down until Monday night.  bands of energy will move in after that with rain at times.  It is possible a strong rain shadow could develop along the west side Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly affecting rainfall totals.  By the time we get to late Wednesday night and Thursday, a powerful winter storm will be pounding virtually all of California.  This system has the potential for very  heavy precipitation along the Sierra Nevada as well as over the valley floor.  Rain will last through Thursday night.  it still appears Friday will usher in the beginning of a prolonged period of dry weather with the return of the eastern Pacific high which will build into the western states.

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight but possibly just slightly above in the coldest, low lying locations.  Temperatures under ideal conditions tonight could drop down to 33 to 36 or so but only if skies clear.  By and large, however, expect above freezing conditions for the next week and quite possibly longer.

Models this morning were still indicating an arctic outbreak over the Rockies and the Midwest beginning about the 21st.  so far, it appears a ridge of upper level high pressure will blanket the western one-fourth of the lower 48, keeping winter to our east.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Low to mid 40s.

Humidity: Porterville: 65%/95%, Bakersfield: 55%/85%

Actual Humidity January 11, 2019: Delano, 100%/71% Porterville, 98%/45%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 20%  Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 20%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .16, Parlier .22, Blackwell .31, Lindcove .22, Arvin .44, Orange Cove .26, Porterville .25, Delano .28  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 51, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 55, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 51, Delano 50

 

Record Temperatures: 67/20. Average Temperatures: 54/36

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1009 -352

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for January so far: 47.9 +3.8

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 3.34 season. or -.92, Month to Date: 1.01 +.22

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  1.57, or -.80.  Month to Date: .27 -.14

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 485,  Parlier, 499 ,  Arvin, 438 Shafter, 519  Stratford, 481, Delano 496, Lindcove, 730, Porterville, 955

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:11 am  Sunset: 5:04 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:51

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  63 /  48 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  62 /  46 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  58 /  47 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  56 /  47 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  69 /  46 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  61 /  46 /    M /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1555 /  63 /  42 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  66 /  45 /    T /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1553 /  63 /  37 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  54 /  45 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.01   124    3.52    62     5.67    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    4.97   100    3.25    66     4.96    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    4.83   103    1.99    43     4.68    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    3.74    77    1.31    27     4.88    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    3.34    78    1.23    29     4.26    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    2.60    63    1.68    40     4.16    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    1.57    66    0.88    37     2.37     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.58    76    0.20    10     2.07     5.18

SALINAS                          T    5.08   106    2.13    44     4.80    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    4.79   103    2.16    47     4.63    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    3.98    80    1.95    39     4.99    13.95

 

 

Next report:  Saturday afternoon, January 12