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Forecast

January 12, 2019/pm update

 

January 12, 2019

Summary:  Doppler radar precipitation estimates indicate as much as a third of an inch of rain fell over localized areas of Kern  County with a tenth of two in southern Kings and Tulare Counties.  Generally, just very light amounts fell north of that line.  All precipitation has ended over the valley but continues over the Kern County mountains as the low is moving through southern California and will trek into the Desert Southwest Sunday.  Most locations are reporting partly cloudy skies following the passage of the storm.  Dew points are still relatively high, so even though skies will be relatively clear in some areas tonight, above freezing temperatures are expected.

 

We now turn our attention to the next low pressure system which is quite strong on satellite imagery.  Initially, this system will have the same challenge as the previous one.  High pressure parked over the northern Rockies will halt the eastern progression of this system through Sunday night and possibly well into Monday.  This will force the first precipitation shield into southern California before central California receives anything.  The northern Rocky high will break down by Monday night, allowing the next storm to move inland unimpeded with periods of rain from late Monday through Wednesday.

 

Wind will also be a challenge with this system in Kern County.  As pressure falls rapidly off shore and remains relatively higher over the high desert, another round of strong, gusty winds may be spawned over the usual suspect areas, especially near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.  I would not be surprised to see this winds spread as far north as Bakersfield this time around with gusty east to southeast winds also occurring along the west side of the valley.  The risk factor for this winds will increase Sunday night and continue through Tuesday.

 

Models are still showing a very powerful winter storm off the southern Oregon/northern California coast later Wednesday night through Thursday night.  this system will have very strong dynamic attributes with plenty of cold air diving into the northwest sector of the storm and subtropical moisture feeding in from the west southwest.  Add to this a strong jet stream over central and southern California and you have the recipe for all kinds of interesting weather ranging from strong winds in some areas to potentially very heavy precipitation along the east side of the valley and especially over the Sierra Nevada.  Showers will taper off Friday morning with dry weather returning Friday afternoon and continuing through the weekend.

 

Models for the period January 21 through 26 show a massive arctic outbreak generally east of the Rocky Mountains.  However, some models are hinting at the formation of an upper low perhaps over or near northern California about the 24th.  More on this in the frost discussion below.

 

Forecast: partly cloudy tonight with possibly extensive fog and low clouds developing after midnight.  Widespread fog and/or low clouds Sunday morning.  Increasing cloudiness Sunday afternoon.  Mostly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning.  T he chance for rain will begin to increase by midday Monday with periods of rain Monday afternoon through Wednesday.  Strong gusty winds are possible Sunday night through Tuesday in the south valley.  Rain Wednesday night through Thursday night, possibly locally heavy at times along with areas of strong, gusty winds.  A chance of showers Friday morning. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.  Mostly clear Saturday afternoon.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 36/59/44/57 Reedley 38/60/45/56 Dinuba 35/59/44/56
Porterville 37/61/45/58 Lindsay 36/61/44/57 Delano 40/61/45/58
Bakersfield 42/62/49/59 Taft 45/61/50/59 Arvin 43/62/49/60
Lamont 41/62/45/58 Pixley 37/61/46/58 Tulare 36/59/45/56
Woodlake 38/60/45/57 Hanford 39/61/47/57 Orosi 36/60/45/57

 

Winds:  Winds tonight through Sunday will be variable to 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds will become out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH Sunday night.  from Sunday night through Tuesday in Kern County, there will be a chance of winds out of the east to southeast at 15 to 30 MPH with localized gusts to near 50 MPH near the base of the Kern County mountains.  Elsewhere, Sunday night through Tuesday, winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH with possible stronger gusts along the west side.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather tonight through Sunday and possibly into Monday morning.  A ridge of high pressure remains over the northern Rockies and will slow or even stop the eastward progression of the next system.  Models do show the high moving on by Monday night, allowing the system to continue to trek eastward.  There will be a chance of showers Monday morning with periods of rain becoming likely Monday afternoon and at times through Wednesday.  High resolution models are indicating the possibility of strong rain shadows along the west side and, of course, in Kern County.  This would reduce rainfall tallies there.  East of Highway 99 from Tulare County northward, there is a better likelihood of more substantial amounts of rain.  I still feel pretty amped about a system that will be off the northern California/southern Oregon coast by Monday night.  a powerful west to east jet stream will slam underneath the low into central and southern California.  Flooding will no doubt be a concern in southern California with potentially massive snowfall above 7,000 feet.  Precipitation in the valley will be determined by rain shadows, but potentially amounts could be impressive.  The low will slide east of the Sierra Nevada by Friday morning with dry weather returning Friday afternoon, starting a prolonged period of dry weather.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight but only slightly above in wind sheltered, low lying spots.

 

We will remain frost free for the next week and quite possibly longer.  Models are still pointing toward a massive arctic outbreak from the polar regions of northern Canada southward into the Midwest, southeast, and eastern U.S.  In fact, some models show this air mass moving all the way through the Gulf of Mexico, so Florida might want to stay tuned.  So far, models show this air mass remaining out of California, but some are indicating the possibility of the development of an upper low over northern California about the 24th.  That configuration could possibly feed some of this frigid air into the Pacific Northwest.  It would not, however, impact California.  It’s always these little quirky features that show up on models from day to day that drive me crazy, but by and large, the medium range forecast seems to be moving in our favor with high pressure over the western one-third of the U.S.

 

Next report: Sunday morning/January 13