January 13, 2019
Summary: Outside of some patchy fog, skies are mostly clear at this early morning hour. Satellite imagery early this morning shows the next system looking eerily similar to the storm that moved through southern California yesterday with locally heavy rain. This system, like its predecessor, is being blocked by a strong ridge over the northern Rockies which extends into the Pacific Northwest. As the main center of circulation draws closer to the coast, there will be a distinct difference in pressure at the surface from Nevada and southern California compared to falling pressures off shore. This will set the stage for strong winds over the Kern County mountains later this afternoon through Monday.
The configuration appears to be set for some of these winds to dive downslope and out over the Kern County portion of the valley floor. The strongest difference in pressure will occur during the late night and early morning hours when winds could potentially gust to 50 to 60 MPH in places like the bottom of the Grapevine and possibly 40 to 50 MPH elsewhere with gusts to 40 MPH as far north as Bakersfield. North of Kern County, winds will be considerably lighter.
That storm will squeeze into southern California tonight and Monday where they will enjoy the benefits of locally heavy precipitation over the mountains and potentially elsewhere. Models finally show the westerlies breaking through late Monday through Wednesday. There are numerous impulses of low pressure over the eastern Pacific which will be allowed to move inland from the west. Any one of these systems has the potential for locally heavy rain, especially along the Sierra Nevada where orographic lift comes into play.
An intense Pacific storm will be off the Oregon coast Wednesday night and Thursday. Models place the center of circulation a bit further north than previous models had. Even so, a powerful west to east jet stream will be flanked underneath this storm and into central California. It now appears southern California may be less likely to pick up the heavy precip early models had depicted.
Upper level high pressure will be building northward and eastward over the eastern Pacific Friday for a return to dry weather. On Saturday night and Sunday, a dry cold front will move through with little fanfare.
We’ve been discussing for several days that a polar air mass will be invading much of the lower 48. Models have moved up this bitterly cold air mas to this coming weekend from the northern Rockies and eventually swallowing the eastern 2/3 of the lower 48 with possibly another blast of air from the Arctic Circle about the 24 or 25. Some models are now showing an upper low trying to develop over northern Baja during this time frame. In theory, this would create a strong off shore flow which typically leaves the valley alone. My main concern is modified arctic air being entrenched within this system, but for now that possibility seems quite low.
Forecast: Mostly clear this morning with patchy fog. Partly cloudy this afternoon. Increasing cloudiness tonight. Mostly cloudy Monday with a small chance of showers by noon. The chance of rain will increase along the west side of the valley late Monday afternoon then periods of rain can be expected Monday night through Wednesday. Rain, possibly heavy at times, Wednesday night through Thursday night with a chance of showers Friday, mainly during the morning. Partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday with increasing amounts of night and morning valley fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 61/44/58/47/57 | Reedley 61/46/57/47/57 | Dinuba 59/44/57/48/57 | |
| Porterville 62/44/59/47/60 | Lindsay 62/43/60/46/61 | Delano 62/46/57/48/61 | |
| Bakersfield 66/51/62/49/62 | Taft 65/52/61/50/62 | Arvin 66/53/61/50/62 | |
| Lamont 65/51/61/50/61 | Pixley 62/45/60/49/60 | Tulare 60/43/57/46/57 | |
| Woodlake 62/43/58/47/57 | Hanford 62/45/59/48/61 | Orosi 60/43/60/46/59 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Rain, locally heavy 52/62 |
Thursday
Rain, locally heavy 53/62 |
Friday
AM showers possible 45/58 |
Saturday
AM fog/partly cloudy 37/60 |
Sunday
AM fog/partly cloudy 37/62 |
Two Week Outlook: January 19 through January 25: This model indicates strong upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the western one-fourth of the U.S. Temperatures above the fog and low clouds will be above average. Temperatures on the valley floor will be determined by how widespread and persistent the fog and low clouds are. The chance of rain during this period will be quite low.
January: This model shows generally above average temperatures for January over the western one-third of the United States while near to below average temperatures will prevail east of the Rockies. There is no firm indicator of really above or below average precipitation although it does forecast below average rain in the Pacific Northwest.
January, February, March: The western half of the United States is projected in a very general sense to have above average temperatures for the next 90 days. Like the 30 day outlook, it seems to want to project near average precipitation, which would be nice.
Winds: As the main center of circulation of the next system draws closer to the coast, there will be a distinct difference in pressure at the surface from Nevada and southern California compared to falling pressures off shore. This will set the stage for strong winds over the Kern County mountains later this afternoon through Monday.
The configuration appears to be set for some of these winds to dive downslope and out over the Kern County portion of the valley floor. The strongest difference in pressure will occur during the late night and early morning hours when winds could potentially gust to 50 to 60 MPH in places like the bottom of the Grapevine and possibly 40 to 50 MPH elsewhere with gusts to 40 MPH as far north as Bakersfield. North of Kern County, winds will be considerably lighter through tonight.
Later Monday through Tuesday, as the low moves inland to our south, winds will decrease in Kern County and be generally out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts. North of Kern County, there will be periods where the winds will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts, especially along the west side.
Rain: Dry weather will continue into Monday morning. The chance of rain will begin to increase along the west side of the valley later Monday afternoon with periods of rain Monday night through Tuesday night which could be locally heavy Tuesday and Tuesday night. from Wednesday through Thursday night, a powerful Pacific storm will be battering our region. Expect rain, locally heavy, especially along the east side north of Kern County. During Wednesday through Thursday night, potentially .75 to 1.50 could be tallied north of Kern County and generally east of Highway 99.
It now appears showers behind this system will last well into Friday morning with dry weather setting up shop by midday.
A cold front will move through Saturday night and Sunday, but it appears high pressure will successfully chew it up, so it will be a dry event. For now, a large ridge of high pressure is projected to dominate the western states from this weekend through the following week for a prolonged period of dry weather.
Frost Discussion: Temperatures will be above freezing tonight and each night for at least the next seven days.
Models are still projecting a massive polar outbreak from the Rockies eastward. The only real difference in models this morning is the fact that the timing has moved up to this weekend. Somewhere around the 24th, some models are showing a low center forming over northern Baja which for now appears harmless. Nevertheless, it will be worth watching, if it forms at all, as there’s always a slight chance the counterclockwise circulation could tap into some modified arctic air. For now, I consider that chance to be very low.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Porterville: 65%/95%, Bakersfield: 55%/85%
Actual Humidity January 11, 2019: Delano, 98%/52% Porterville, 96%/52%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .20, Parlier .26, Blackwell .32, Lindcove .26, Arvin .48, Orange Cove .30, Porterville .26, Delano .32 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 52, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 52, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 70/19. Average Temperatures: 54/36
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1021 -361
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 48.3 +4.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 3.34 season. or -1.00, Month to Date: 1.01 +.14
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 1.58, or -.82. Month to Date: .28 -.16
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 486, Parlier, 499 , Arvin, 438 Shafter, 517 Stratford, 482, Delano 496, Lindcove, 735, Porterville, 972
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 5:05 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 49 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 49 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 62 / 47 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 64 / 53 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 47 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 63 / 49 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 47 / 0.06 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1550 / 63 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 7.01 122 3.52 61 5.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 4.97 98 3.25 64 5.05 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.83 101 1.99 42 4.79 12.50
MADERA 0.00 3.74 75 1.31 26 4.98 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.34 77 1.23 28 4.34 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 2.61 62 1.68 40 4.24 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 1.58 66 0.88 37 2.40 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.58 75 0.20 9 2.11 5.18
SALINAS T 5.12 105 2.13 44 4.89 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.27 5.09 108 2.16 46 4.72 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.28 5.06 100 1.95 38 5.08 13.95
Next report: Sunday afternoon, January 13