February 6, 2019
Summary: Tonight will definitely be one of the coldest nights of the winter with widespread mid to upper 20s. strong radiational cooling will occur under a clear sky tonight and with little to no wind and dew points in the low to mid 30s, a very cold night is a given. Currently, we’re under a northerly flow aloft. The latest balloon sounding over Oakland showed a freezing level of just 3,200 feet and 3,800 feet over VAFB. I noted Tehachapi at an elevation of 4,000 feet was reporting a temperature of 32 at 1:00pm. The winds aloft will become more northwesterly Thursday and Friday under a weak ridge of upper level high pressure.
That high will quickly give way to another very cold low which will drop southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska and center a few hundred miles to the west of the Golden Gate Saturday morning. This system will not have a tropical connection and rainfall amounts will be light beginning Friday night and lasting through probably Saturday night. the way it appears now, another more dynamic low will form over the Yukon Territory of Canada then will move west/southwest just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Saturday night and into Oregon and northern California Sunday night and Monday. This storm is potentially even colder with snow levels possibly down below 2,000 feet Sunday night and Monday morning. By late Monday night, this system will be headed east with dry weather returning Tuesday and Wednesday with the possibility of local frost both mornings.
Thursday through Saturday of next week could be even more interesting from my chair as a deep low well off the California coast shows up on models. With a rich subtropical feed of moisture from Hawaii all the way into the southern half of California. Remember the good ol’ days when we called that the Pineapple Connection? But we currently call it an atmospheric river of air. I personally prefer Pineapple Connection. Anyway, if this does occur, another round of heavy precipitation would be the result, especially over the mountains.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday morning. Increasing cloudiness by Friday evening. Showers becoming likely later Friday night and at times through Saturday. A chance of showers Saturday night. a small chance of showers Sunday morning, becoming likely again by late Sunday afternoon through Monday with snow down to low elevations. A chance of showers Monday night, becoming partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 26/53/29/58 | Reedley 27/54/30/58 | Dinuba 26/52/28/57 | |
| Porterville 27/54/29/59 | Lindsay 26/53/28/58 | Delano 27/55/30/60 | |
| Bakersfield 31/57/33/61 | Taft 31/57/34/62 | Arvin 28/57/30/62 | |
| Lamont 28/56/30/61 | Pixley 26/53/29/58 | Tulare 26/52/28/57 | |
| Woodlake 27/53/29/57 | Hanford 28/54/30/58 | Orosi 26/53/28/56 | |
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 8 MPH through Friday with extended periods of near calm conditions. Winds Friday night and Saturday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north and along the west side.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Friday. The chance for light showers will increase later Friday night and continue on Saturday. This is a very cold system with snow levels along the Sierra Nevada dropping to 2,000 to 3,000 feet. It appears there will be a short break late Saturday night through Sunday morning, although the timing of all this is tentative. The chance of showers will increase later Sunday through Monday from an even colder low with the potential for the snow level to drop below 2,000 feet, meaning snow on the coast range and in the Sierra Nevada foothills and the Kern County mountains. For now it looks like dry weather will return late Monday night through Wednesday night. for the second day in a row, models are showing a low pressure system several hundred miles to the west of the northern California coast and the possible development of a pineapple connection running underneath the low from southwest to northeast. The heaviest precipitation would be over central and southern California. This is more than a week away, but that some models are showing a minor trend, it does look interesting.
Frost Discussion: Tonight may be a rough night for some as the very coldest locations will drop down to 23 to 25 with most other locations between 26 and 29 degrees. Hillsides will be in the lower 30s. coldest unprotected locations will drop to near 32 degrees between 9:00 and 10:00pm and 28 around roughly 2:00am. Temperatures won’t rise to above freezing until about 8:30am to 9:00am Thursday. The inversion tonight will be moderate at best with temperatures at 34 feet around 3 to 6 degrees warmer at most locations.
I do look for many locations to drop into the upper 20s Friday morning as most locations should see 1 to 3 degrees of moderation. Fortunately, this is just a three night event as lows Saturday through Monday, even though chilly, will be above freezing due to heavy cloud cover and showers. It’s possible local frost could again occur Tuesday and Wednesday mornings of next week. That low pressure system that will affect us later Sunday and Monday could drop snow levels down to two to three thousand feet, to give you an idea of the potential air mass.
After Wednesday, we should be okay as a possible very active weather pattern returns.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
26 |
Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
27 |
| Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
25 |
Ducor
28 |
Tea Pot Dome
26 |
| Lindsay
25 |
Exeter
25 |
Famoso
27 |
Madera
26 |
| Belridge
26 |
Delano
27 |
North Bakersfield
27 |
Orosi
26 |
| Orange Cove
26 |
Lindcove
25 |
Lindcove Hillside
31 |
Sanger River Bottom
23 |
| Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
27 |
Rosedale
27 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
28 |
Lamont
28 |
Plainview
27 |
Mettler
31 |
| Edison
28 |
Maricopa
26 |
Holland creek
28 |
Tivy Valley
25 |
| Kite Road South
29 |
Kite Road North
26 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Thursday morning/February 7