April 3, 2019
Summary: Isolated thunderstorms yesterday afternoon dropped briefly heavy rain on a few locations in the valley. Tulare County received the heaviest precipitation although Huron recorded an impressive .64. Today will be quiet with high, thin clouds rolling overhead from time to time. There is, however, a considerable amount of upslope clouds crammed into southeast Tulare County and Kern County. Bakersfield is reporting a broken layer of clouds at 2,600 feet and overcast skies at 4,800 feet. These clouds will slowly dissipate later this morning and during the afternoon. Higher clouds will begin to increase tonight ahead of the next Pacific weather system which will move into the northern half of California Thursday through Thursday evening. Models do not give much hope of precipitation, but just a small chance of showers from Fresno County northward, and a slight chance in Kings and Tulare Counties.
More importantly, a stronger system will make its move on northern California Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. With this system, models are not showing very high precipitation amounts for central California. It had at one time appeared this would be a significant storm event for central California, but even in the Sierra Nevada of Mariposa and Madera Counties, a half inch or less is expected. On the valley floor, no more than a tenth or two can be expected in Madera and eastern Fresno Counties with lesser amounts further south.
The chance for showers will continue into Saturday morning then a ridge of upper level high pressure will build inland from the eastern Pacific, controlling our weather Sunday and Monday and resulting in a warming trend.
What we call an inside slider will move southeastward through the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin Tuesday into Wednesday. This will result in a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada, but for now I see no reason to introduce showers for the valley floor for this time frame.
Medium range models continue to point to the possibility of above average precipitation once we get past the 10th through the 16th.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning in the south valley with generally clear skies elsewhere. A mix of high clouds and sunshine this afternoon. Partly cloudy tonight. Variable cloudiness Thursday and Thursday night with a chance of light showers from Fresno County north. A slight chance of showers in Kings and Tulare Counties. Increasing cloudiness Friday morning. A chance of showers Friday afternoon. Showers likely Friday night through midmorning Saturday, mainly north of Kern County. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Variable cloudiness Tuesday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 72/49/68/49/69 | Reedley 71/48/69/48/69 | Dinuba 70/48/67/47/69 | |
| Porterville 72/48/68/48/70 | Lindsay 71/47/68/47/69 | Delano 72/50/69/49/69 | |
| Bakersfield 73/53/68/51/68 | Taft 73/54/68/51/69 | Arvin 73/50/69/50/67 | |
| Lamont 73/52/68/50/68 | Pixley 71/49/68/48/68 | Tulare 70/47/67/48/68 | |
| Woodlake 71/48/69/48/68 | Hanford 72/49/68/48/68 | Orosi 71/47/68/47/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
AM showers 44/68 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 45/76 |
Monday
Mostly clear 50/80 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 51/82 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 48/74 |
Two Week Outlook: April 9 through April 15: Temperatures during this time frame will be near to possibly marginally below average. This model points to a higher than normal risk of showers during this time frame.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH through Thursday night with periods of near calm conditions during the overnight hours. Winds will be out of the southeast Friday at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to near 25 MPH from Fresno County north and along the west side, especially Friday night. Winds Saturday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: The following are a few significant amounts of rainfall from yesterday afternoon and evening during thunderstorms. Clovis .36, Fresno .19, Visalia .35, Tulare .30, and Huron .64. Most other locations received generally a few hundredths of an inch with some locations remaining dry.
Dry conditions will prevail through tonight then light showers may spread as far south as Fresno County Thursday through Thursday evening with a slight chance into the south valley. A stronger storm will spread rain into northern California Friday through Saturday morning, however models this morning are backing off on potential for central California with perhaps less than .25 over Madera County and eastern Fresno County. A tenth or two is likely in Tulare County with less than a tenth over the valley portion of Kern County.
Dry weather will return Saturday afternoon and continue probably through the middle of next week. An inside slider will drop into Nevada later Tuesday and Wednesday for a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada. As of now, however, it appears the valley floor will remain dry.
Medium range models continue to hold onto the idea of above average precipitation from the 10th through the 16th. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/85% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/85%
Actual Humidity April 2, 2019: Delano, 88%/38% Porterville, 93%/33%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.19, Parlier .1.09, Blackwell 1.13, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.13, Orange Cove .98, Porterville 1.12, Delano 1.05 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 62, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 63, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 63, Delano 66
Record Temperatures: 91/33. Average Temperatures: 71/45
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 0 -4
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 64.0 +6.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.22 season. or -.58. Month to Date: .14 +.06
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.90, or +.28. Month to Date: .01 -.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:41 am Sunset: 7:24 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 75 / 55 / 0.09 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 76 / 57 / 0.14 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 76 / 54 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 77 / 52 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 77 / 57 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 73 / 55 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 72 / 52 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 76 / 53 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1648 / 75 / 56 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 70 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.21 15.54 127 7.37 60 12.26 14.06
MODESTO 0.09 12.03 108 5.78 52 11.19 13.11
MERCED T 11.84 111 5.66 53 10.62 12.50
MADERA 0.09 9.74 96 6.51 64 10.18 12.02
FRESNO 0.14 9.22 94 6.09 62 9.80 11.50
HANFORD T 7.38 86 4.41 51 8.59 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 5.90 105 3.73 66 5.62 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 186 0.82 20 4.07 5.18
SALINAS T 12.04 106 5.29 47 11.35 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.00 121 9.42 81 11.57 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.47 115 5.60 45 12.53 13.95
Next report: Thursday morning/April 4