April 6, 2019
Summary: A flat zone of upper level high pressure covers the waters off the central and southern California coast. From there, it extends inland over both regions. The northern portion of the growing area will observe variable cloudiness today from a fairly significant low moving into Oregon and northern California. The weak southerly flow ahead of this system will warm temperatures today and, as the high strengthens a bit Sunday and Monday, readings will respond accordingly, reaching 80 degrees in many areas Monday.
The next weather system will sweep inland Tuesday with precipitation over the northern half of California. Light showers are possible as far south as Fresno County but for now appear insignificant with dry weather continuing south of Fresno County. Another ridge will then build inland Tuesday night through Thursday morning, continuing the basically dry pattern.
Models this morning are quite different on handling a potential low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Thursday night and Friday. The storm appears considerably weaker and some models actually show it moving southward overland which, of course, would greatly reduce the potential for a good rain event. Instead of the likelihood of rain, I feel it necessary to back off and use the term “chance of showers” now that models are getting a better grip on this system and its dynamics.
A fairly unsettled pattern for northern California will continue from the 10th through the middle of the month with small chances of periodic showers for central California, mainly over the Sierra Nevada.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness at times from Fresno County north today and tonight. South of Fresno County, expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday through Monday and warmer. Increasing cloudiness late Monday night leading to a small chance of light showers from Fresno County north Tuesday. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night leading to a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday and Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 73/49/78/53/80 | Reedley 75/50/79/53/80 | Dinuba 73/49/77/52/78 | |
| Porterville 75/49/78/52/81 | Lindsay 74/48/79/52/80 | Delano 75/50/79/54/81 | |
| Bakersfield 75/55/80/57/81 | Taft 74/55/78/57/80 | Arvin 75/51/80/55/80 | |
| Lamont 75/53/79/55/80 | Pixley 74/49/78/53/81 | Tulare 73/48/79/52/79 | |
| Woodlake 74/48/79/52/79 | Hanford 75/49/79/53/80 | Orosi 73/48/78/52/79 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 54/70 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 44/70 |
Thursday
Increasing clouds 45/69 |
Friday
Chance of showers 52/71 |
Saturday
AM showers 41/68 |
Two Week Outlook: April 13 through April 19: The eastern Pacific high will be several hundred miles off the Pacific coast during this period, putting California in a northwest flow aloft. This will result in somewhat below average temperatures and at least a chance of showers from time to time.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Tuesday, generally northwesterly in the afternoons and early evenings. Periods of near calm conditions are possible, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Dry conditions will prevail through Monday night. on Tuesday, the next weak weather system will move through northern and central California with little fanfare. There will be a small chance of light showers in Fresno and Madera Counties and a sprinkle or two farther south would not be a total shock. Dry weather will return Tuesday night, continuing through at least Thursday. Models are showing a completely different option for late Thursday night through early Saturday. Some are indicating a low will drop southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California. However, some are showing an overland trajectory which would reduce the chance of a significant precipitation event. Also, the low does not appear to be nearly as robust as early depicted. So, instead of showers likely for Thursday through Saturday we’ll back off and call it just a chance. We’ll study model projections over the next few days to try to get a better handle on it. Once we get to the middle of the month, periodic chances of precipitation will be there. We are moving deeper into April and we’re into the time of year when the storm track naturally moves further north. The medium range outlook would be for just a chance of precipitation from time to time. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/80%
Actual Humidity April 5, 2019: Delano, 83%/36% Porterville, 91%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.10, Parlier .1.01, Blackwell 1.08, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.10, Orange Cove .9, Porterville 1.00, Delano 1.11 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 61, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 63, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 63, Delano 66
Record Temperatures: 92/36. Average Temperatures: 72/46
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 0 -4
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 61.0 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.22 season. or -.71. Month to Date: .14 -.07
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.90, or +.20. Month to Date: .01 -.12
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:36 am Sunset: 7:26 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:46
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 70 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 69 / 53 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 70 / 45 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 70 / 54 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 68 / 48 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 67 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 68 / 50 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 66 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 53 / 0.01 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.14 15.68 127 7.38 60 12.39 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.03 106 5.78 51 11.31 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.84 110 5.66 53 10.73 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.75 95 6.51 63 10.28 12.02
FRESNO T 9.22 93 6.09 61 9.93 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.49 86 4.41 51 8.66 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.90 104 3.73 65 5.70 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 184 0.82 20 4.11 5.18
SALINAS 0.18 12.25 107 5.29 46 11.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 14.00 120 9.42 81 11.67 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.47 114 5.60 44 12.67 13.95
Next report: Monday morning/April 7