May 2, 2019
Summary: A trough of low pressure stretches from western Canada southward into Wyoming and Utah while a ridge of upper level high pressure is just off the California coast and will be moving inland over the next 72 hours. In the meantime, well out over the Pacific is a closed low which has been parked basically in the same position over the past few days. Models show it shifting eastward so by the time it reaches shore, it will be Sunday afternoon and it will be centered somewhere near Santa Barbara or possibly even the Kern County mountains.
The first shot across the bow from this storm will be a rapidly deepening marine layer which will surge into the valley possibly as early as late Saturday afternoon. As the low slowly makes its move inland, convection will begin over the mountain areas with scattered showers developing along with isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. The Coast Range should even see some activity from Sunday afternoon into Tuesday. Even though the chance of measurable rain over the valley floor will be low, it would not be at all surprising to see scattered light showers develop or even an isolated thunderstorm or two, especially Monday. As you can imagine, the combination of marine air surging inland and much cooler air aloft means much cooler air will arrive Sunday through Tuesday. One model places us in the upper 60s Monday afternoon.
By Tuesday morning, the low should be pushing into southern Nevada, finally allowing upper level high pressure to begin to build in from the west. Models are fairly uniform in their depiction of a high center parking off the southern California coast for several days, dominating the weather over California and the desert southwest. Eventually it will push temperatures above average.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday. Becoming partly cloudy Saturday night. variable clouds Sunday through Tuesday with a chance of widely scattered light showers from late Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. Partly cloudy later Monday night through Tuesday. Becoming mostly clear Tuesday night and Wednesday morning but possibly remaining partly cloudy in Kern County. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 83/51/87/54/88 | Reedley 84/51/87/54/87 | Dinuba 83/50/86/53/87 | |
| Porterville 84/51/88/54/88 | Lindsay 83/50/86/53/88 | Delano 84/53/87/55/88 | |
| Bakersfield 85/58/88/59/88 | Taft 85/59/87/60/88 | Arvin 84/54/87/55/89 | |
| Lamont 85/55/88/56/89 | Pixley 84/54/87/56/87 | Tulare 83/51/86/54/87 | |
| Woodlake 83/50/87/53/87 | Hanford 85/52/87/56/88 | Orosi 82/50/86/53/87 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
PM showers 55/70 |
Monday
Chance of showers 56/72 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 50/77 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 53/82 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 53/84 |
Two Week Outlook: May 9 through May 15: This model indicates the pattern will remain fairly active over the west. Even though the chance of rain remains low, it certainly cannot be eliminated. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through Saturday morning. Winds will begin to increase out of the west at 15 to 25 MPH Saturday afternoon with local gusts to 40 MPH along the west side. Winds Sunday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH, especially along the west side.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Sunday morning. A weakening closed low pressure system is projected to be right near Kern County Sunday night and Monday. Moisture wrapping around this storm will be limited, but showers and isolated thunderstorms will break out over the higher elevations around the valley with widely scattered light showers and isolated thunderstorms being a possibility over the valley floor with the greatest risk being from Sunday afternoon through Monday night,. the greatest risk for isolated thunderstorms will be Monday afternoon and evening.
Dry weather will return Tuesday, although some activity may continue over the mountains and foothills. Dry weather can be expected from Wednesday and will last well beyond.
Precipitation amounts on the valley floor from Sunday afternoon through Monday night will range from nothing in many areas to possibly as much as .10. if isolated thunderstorms occur, there could be pockets recording more than .25.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/85% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/60%
Actual Humidity May 1, 2019: Delano, 91%/33%, Porterville, 88%/NA%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.78, Parlier 1.63, Blackwell 1.81, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.70, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.56, Delano 1.64. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 68, Blackwell 74, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 69, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 72, Delano 70
Record Temperatures: 101/40. Average Temperatures: 80/51
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 91 +53
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 64.0 -1.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.47 season. or -1.22. Month to Date: .00 -.02
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 6.00, or -.10. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:03 am Sunset: 7:49 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 80 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 77 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 79 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 79 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 79 / 58 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 78 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 79 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 76 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 77/ 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.79 120 9.09 69 13.18 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.06 100 8.00 66 12.11 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 103 6.91 60 11.51 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.84 89 7.22 65 11.09 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.47 89 6.73 63 10.69 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.67 82 4.70 50 9.34 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.00 98 3.93 64 6.10 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 175 1.22 28 4.32 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.31 101 7.13 58 12.21 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.11 116 9.62 79 12.19 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.77 110 6.01 45 13.43 13.95
Next report: Friday morning/May 3