May 25, 2019
Summary: Even though it is a tranquil morning in central California with generally clear skies, ominous changes are taking place to our north. This new complex of actually two low pressure systems will begin to affect central California this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms spread down the Sierra Nevada and possibly out over the valley floor. This will especially hold true along the east side.
This first wave of low pressure is actually a precursor to a much stronger system which is currently intensifying nearing northwest Washington. The low will dive southward just off the northwest California coast by this evening with the center of circulation somewhat near the San Francisco Bay area Sunday morning. It will be near Kern County by Sunday evening. This means the coldest and most unstable portion of this cold core low will be right over central California during the time of maximum daytime heating.
With the very high sun angle leading to intense heating this time of year, destabilization of the atmosphere will increase as the day wears on. This will result in a high risk of thunderstorms anytime from late morning through the evening hours. The storm prediction center is predicting possible strong storms on the valley floor Sunday afternoon with heavy rain and small hail.
By Monday morning, the low will be centered somewhat near Las Vegas and will pull rapidly eastward into the Four Corners region, ending this latest bout of unusually cold wet weather for the time of year. Before it does, though, temperatures Sunday will plunge to near record low values with only minimal recovery Memorial Day.
Even though this will be the last blast of winter for the valley floor, a weak trough of low pressure will remain over the western states for the week for daily rounds of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. Temperatures will definitely warm as next week wears on, possibly finally reaching seasonal averages by Friday. For now, there’s no really hot temperatures on the horizon as this persistent trough just will not go away.
Forecast: Mostly clear this morning. Increasing cloudiness later this afternoon with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly near the foothills. A chance of showers tonight, becoming likely after midnight. Periods of showers with scattered thunderstorms becoming likely Sunday, especially from late morning through evening. Showers likely Monday night with a chance of a few lingering showers for a time Memorial Day morning. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Saturday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 81/52/62/48/68 | Reedley 82/53/61/46/68 | Dinuba 80/51/61/45/67 | |
| Porterville 82/52/61/46/68 | Lindsay 81/50/61/45/69 | Delano 82/53/62/47/69 | |
| Bakersfield 83/56/63/50/69 | Taft 83/57/65/51/69 | Arvin 83/54/63/48/70 | |
| Lamont 82/54/65/49/68 | Pixley 81/52/62/47/68 | Tulare 80/51/61/45/67 | |
| Woodlake 81/51/61/46/68 | Hanford 82/54/61/47/69 | Orosi 81/52/62/46/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Partly cloudy 54/78 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 57/84 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 58/87 |
Friday
Mostly clear 60/90 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 59/89 |
Two Week Outlook: May 31 through June 6: This model is astonishingly showing upper level high pressure finally dominating the pattern over California and off shore. This configuration could actually drive temperatures above average for a change with little, if any, chance of precipitation.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds this morning will be at or less than 12 MPH. Later this afternoon, winds will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH. Later tonight through Monday, winds will favor a northwest direction at 10 to 20 MPH at times with possible stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers and/or thunderstorms. Expect light winds to return Tuesday.
Rain: Showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada this afternoon, possibly spilling onto the valley floor by mid to late afternoon, especially along the east side north of Kern County. This will be the first phase of two waves of low pressure moving in. by far the strongest will arrive Sunday in the form of a cold core low which will trigger numerous showers with a fairly high risk of scattered thunderstorms from late Sunday morning through Sunday evening. Any thunderstorms that do occur will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Showers will continue well into Sunday night with a chance of lingering showers for a time Monday morning, mainly in Kern County.
Rainfall amounts will vary widely. Generally speaking, from about .10 to .33, however it would not be surprising for some locations to tally up more than .50. This will be possible for locations in the path of a thunderstorm.
The good news is, dry weather will return later Monday and will continue for the remainder of the week. A trough of low pressure will linger over the west for daily chances of showers over the Sierra but from Monday night on through next week and probably well beyond, dry weather will finally return.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/75%
Actual Humidity May 24, 2019: Delano, 100%/45% Porterville, 92%/38%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .93, Parlier 1.11, Blackwell 1.14, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.06, Orange Cove .98, Porterville 1.05, Delano 1.15. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 66, Blackwell 69, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 68, Delano 66
Record Temperatures: 102/42. Average Temperatures: 87/56
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 162 +20
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 66.4 -1.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.64 season. or +.62. Month to Date: 2.17 +1.82
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.48, or +1.24. Month to Date: 1.48 +1.33
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:44 am Sunset: 8:08 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:21
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 81 / 57 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 77 / 58 / 0.12 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 80 / 53 / 0.02 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 78 / 51 / 0.15 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 80 / 57 / 0.04 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 78 / 52 / 0.02 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 76 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 79 / 58 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1645 / 76 / 55 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 78 / 56 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.32 135 9.09 67 13.59 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.98 103 8.00 63 12.60 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.20 110 6.91 58 12.00 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.39 99 7.22 63 11.50 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.64 106 6.73 61 11.02 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 8.76 91 4.70 49 9.67 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.48 120 3.93 63 6.24 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.42 189 1.47 33 4.45 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.72 110 7.13 57 12.48 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.85 120 9.62 78 12.40 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 15.57 114 6.01 44 13.69 13.95
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Next report: Monday, May 27