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Forecast

August 17, 2019/report

August 17, 2019

Summary: the valley’s natural air conditioning vents are turning wide open this morning.  Already, temperatures are anywhere from 5 to 8 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago.  The marine layer at last report at Monterey had deepened to 2,200 feet and satellite imagery is indicating coastal low clouds are almost moving through Pacheco  Pass and into the valley.  Currently, winds at Pacheco Pass are sustained at 20 MPH, gusting to 31.  Even in Kern County, Lost Hills was reporting gusts to 23 MPH as that modified sea  breeze surges inland.

 

Upper level high pressure which resulted in the recent heat wave has migrated to the south/southwest and is now centered off the Baja, California coast.  This high links up with another weaker high over eastern New Mexico.  All this has allowed a weak trough of low pressure to develop over the Pacific Northwest.  That trough will move into the interior western U.S. over the next 48 hours.  Readings may still reach into the lower 100s in Kern County today, but most of the remainder of the valley should see temperatures lower into the upper 90s today and the mid 90s Sunday and Monday.

 

The flow aloft has now turned westerly which will keep skies cloud free through at least the middle of next week.  This cooling trend will be short lived. Models show upper level high pressure cranking up over the Desert Southwest, expanding westward again into California beginning Tuesday.  On Wednesday, temperatures will again be reaching into the lower 100s with readings soaring into the 104 to 107 degree range Thursday and Friday of next week.

 

One thing we haven’t seen for a while is the monsoon.  Some models show minimal amounts of monsoon moisture moving into southern California Thursday or Friday of next week.  Also, some models are portraying a tropical system off the Baja, California coast beginning around Friday or Saturday of next week.  This is always something we keep a close eye on this time of year.  Interestingly enough, the two week  model out this morning indicates above average precipitation for western Arizona and southern California from the 24 through the 30.  The monsoon has been absent the past few weeks so the law of averages would point to a return.

 

Forecast: Clear and cooler through Monday.  Clear with a warming trend Tuesday.  Mostly clear and hot Wednesday through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 97/59/93/56/93 Reedley 99/60/94/57/93 Dinuba 98/59/93/56/93
Porterville 100/59/94/58/93 Lindsay 100/58/94/56/92 Delano 100/62/94/60/94
Bakersfield 100/66/94/65/93 Taft 99/71/95/67/94 Arvin 101/64/95/61/93
Lamont 101/65/95/62/93 Pixley 100/59/94/57/94 Tulare 99/59/93/56/92
Woodlake 99/59/94/57/93 Hanford 100/59/94/57/93 Orosi 100/59/93/56/93

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

60/96

Wednesday

Mostly clear

63/100

Thursday

Mostly clear

66/102

Friday

Mostly clear

67/105

Saturday

Mostly clear

67/104

 

Two Week Outlook: August 24 through August 30:  Above average temperatures can be expected during this time frame.  There is indication on this  model that we could see a visit from the monsoon or even the possibility of tropical moisture moving into at least southern California.  The chance of rain will remain very low with the exception of the mountain areas.  Nevertheless, eyes to the south would be wise as we move into the latter part of the month.

 

August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest.  The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley.  The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.

 

August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months.  This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally out of the northwest today at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts exceeding 30 MPH possible along the west side, especially along the Interstate 5 corridor, continuing on and off through Sunday.  Winds Monday and Tuesday will be generally out of the northwest afternoons and evenings at 5 to 12 MPH with generally light winds during the night and morning hours.

 

Rain: Currently, the forecast remains dry.  We will have to watch the possibility of a tropical system moving up the Baja coast late next week or next weekend and even the chance of monsoon moisture working in from the Desert Southwest.  The current forecast calls for dry weather, but there are indicators that point to possible moisture from the south late next week and possibly even the following week.

 

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Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/85% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 20%/60%

Actual Humidity range August 16, 2019: Delano, 68%/17% Porterville, 59%/11%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.85, Parlier 1.82, Blackwell 1.97, Arvin 2.00, Orange Cove 2.00, Porterville 1.92, Delano 1.85. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 80, Blackwell 90, Arvin, 80, Orange Cove 80, Porterville 91, Delano 81

Record Temperatures: 111/53. Average Temperatures: 97/64

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1394 +264

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for August so far: 82.2 +3.2

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.53.  Month to Date: .00 -.00

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.44.  Month to Date: .00 -.01

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:18 am  Sunset: 7:46 pm. Hours of Daylight:  13:30

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 / 107 /  65 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 108 /  75 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 107 /  66 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 107 /  66 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    / 108 /  78 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 104 /  69 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DHM    /   M /   M / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1658 / 105 /  83 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 / 104 /  73 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   104    8.17    64    12.84    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    97    7.22    61    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   105    6.73    59    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    96    4.70    47     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   123    3.95    62     6.36     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.47   173    3.02    62     4.90     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   109    7.16    57    12.64    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   119    9.62    77    12.48    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.79    13.95

 

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Next report:  Monday, August 19