August 31, 2019
Summary: Strong upper level high pressure continues to be centered over southern California and Arizona this morning. The freezing level has again risen to 16,600 feet over Vandenberg this morning. The flow of marine air into the valley, which has maintained double digit temps the past couple of days has ended. Winds through Pacheco Pass this morning are light with light winds also being reported at Travers Air Force Base. The main heat belt will remain over southern California and Arizona. Even so, readings topping the century mark will begin again in the hotter locations this afternoon and will level off into the lower 100s Sunday through Tuesday. In another 24 hours, the high center will set up shop over the Four Corners region of the Desert Southwest, turning the winds over southern California south/southeast and south/southwest over central California.
After an extended absence, the monsoon will begin creeping into the lower deserts of southern California Sunday and as far north as the Kern County mountains Monday. The chance for isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase over the mountains and deserts of southern California Monday through Thursday and possibly up the Sierra Nevada Tuesday through Thursday with occasionally partly cloudy skies over the valley floor.
In the medium term, a tropical system will be well off the Baja peninsula by midweek. By next weekend, some models indicate a trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest and California about a week from now. Theoretically, it could draw that tropical moisture in from the southwest. This is just a low possibility for now, but something to keep an eye on as we move into September.
Temperatures will warm a bit over the weekend with hottest readings around the century mark through Tuesday. By mid week, the low of the north coast will move northeastward into Oregon by Friday. This should push some marine air over the valley for our next cooling trend.
Forecast: Clear and hot through Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Thursday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy and cooler Friday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 99/65/101/67/101 | Reedley 100/65/101/68/101 | Dinuba 99/65/100/67/100 |
| Porterville 99/65/101/67/100 | Lindsay 99/64/101/67/101 | Delano 100/68/101/70/101 |
| Bakersfield 101/74/102/75/102 | Taft 100/77/102/78/102 | Arvin 101/70/102/72/102 |
| Lamont 101/70/102/72/102 | Pixley 100/66/102/68/101 | Tulare 99/65/100/67/100 |
| Woodlake 99/66/100/67/100 | Hanford 100/67/101/69/101 | Orosi 99/65/100/67/100 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Partly cloudy 67/100 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 68/97 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 67/95 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 63/94 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 61/92 |
Two Week Outlook: September 7 through September 13: This model is not indicating strong trends for either above or below average temperatures. This model indicates average precipitation, which, this time of year, means the chance of precipitation will remain quite low.
August: This model projects fairly persistent upper level high pressure over the Desert Southwest. The monsoon shows up, as it typically does this time of year, but it generally produces little to no precipitation over the valley. The bottom line, temperatures will be marginally above average with typically dry conditions.
August, September, October: The 90 day outlook doesn’t really give strong indicators one way or the other. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model is projecting near average totals for the next three months. This model also projects above average temperatures for much of the western U.S.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH through Tuesday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: Dry conditions will continue through at least Friday of next week and more than likely beyond. I hedge a little for later next weekend and possibly into the following week as a tropical system is expected to move northwestward well off the Baja coast. While that’s occurring, a trough may move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California which could, in theory, drag some of that moisture up from the southwest. For now, I consider that possibility to be quite low, but this is September weather we’re discussing, so we’ll keep an eye on it in the coming days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 50s. Kern: : Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/65% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/50%
Actual Humidity range August 30, 2019: Delano, 87%/34% Porterville, 82%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.68, Parlier 1.71, Blackwell 1.89, Arvin 1.98, Orange Cove 1.85, Porterville 1.72, Delano 1.72. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 81, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove 78, Porterville NA, Delano 78
Record Temperatures: 107/50. Average Temperatures: 95/62
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1666 +347
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for August so far: 82.4 +4.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.52. Month to Date: .00 -.01
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.80, or +1.41. Month to Date: .00 -.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:30 am Sunset: 7:27 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 94 / 64 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 96 / 66 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 96 / 66 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 95 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 93 / 70 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 92 / 63 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 94 / 72 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 91 / 61 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 133 9.22 67 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 104 8.17 64 12.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 109 7.06 58 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 97 7.22 61 11.77 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 105 6.73 59 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 96 4.70 47 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.80 122 3.95 62 6.39 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.47 170 3.02 61 4.97 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 109 7.16 57 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 119 9.62 77 12.55 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.81 13.95
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Next report: Tuesday, September 3