October 21, 2019
Summary: Today will see the beginning of a new pattern which will bring us into a classic Indian Summer regime. Upper level high pressure is centered off the northern California coast with northern and central California on the eastern flank of the high under a north/northwest flow aloft. The freezing level is bumping upwards now with the overnight reading at Vandenberg at 14,600 feet. A weak surface offshore flow is also developing. It has peeled back the marine layer almost to the beaches. The latest sounding at Monterey indicates a depth of just 400 feet.
The off shore high will shift further east over the next 72 hours, driving temperatures into the mid 80s as early as Tuesday afternoon with mid to upper 80s likely Wednesday through Friday. Not a cloud will be found during this time frame. Most models place the high almost directly overhead Friday with Friday possibly being the warmest day of the week.
Models do vary somewhat, but it appears a radical change in the pattern will begin Saturday night, lasting through the first few days of next week. This is a bit of a heads up, but it’s possible local frost could occur as early as Monday morning. I hesitate to put that in the forecast yet, but models do indicate a strong cold low will dig southward from western Canada and will dive into the midwestern U.S. with a strong north to northeast flow into California. Currently, precipitation looks unlikely as the main dynamics will be east of the Sierra Nevada, but a dry cold front will move through, issuing in that colder air mass.
Forecast: Mostly clear and warmer through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night and Saturday. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday night through Monday, cooler Sunday and much cooler Monday with occasional gusty winds.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/46/84/48/84 | Reedley 78/46/85/49/85 | Dinuba 76/45/83/47/83 |
| Porterville 78/47/85/49/85 | Lindsay 78/46/84/48/84 | Delano 79/48/84/50/84 |
| Bakersfield 79/54/85/57/86 | Taft 78/58/85/58/85 | Arvin 80/51/85/52/85 |
| Lamont 79/51/85/53/86 | Pixley 79/49/84/50/85 | Tulare 77/47/84/49/84 |
| Woodlake 77/46/84/48/84 | Hanford 78/47/84/50/85 | Orosi 77/46/84/48/84 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 51/87 |
Friday
Mostly clear 53/88 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 53/82 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 48/79 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 41/71 |
Two Week Outlook: October 28 through November 3: This model shows a massive cold air outbreak over much of the lower 48 with California being on the western fringe of this air mass. This is not a pattern that would be conducive for precipitation, but possibly well below average temperatures may occur.
October: This model is indicating below average precipitation for Oregon and northern California and above average precipitation over Arizona and extreme southern California. Central California comes into the “near average” category. Generally, below average rainfall over northern California is duplicated in central California. As usual, this model projects above average temperatures.
October, November, December: I never put much credence in the 90 day forecast, but nevertheless, we’ll put on paper what NOAA is projecting. This model is projecting near average precipitation over central and southern California and below average rain once you get near the Oregon border. So, going by this guide, one would think precipitation would be near average with above average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 10 MPH through Thursday with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours. It’s possible localized gusty winds could occur Thursday and Friday near the base of the Tehachapi mountains but a high wind event is not expected.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/70%
Actual Humidity range October 20, 2019: Delano, 92%/46% Porterville, 89%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.02, Parlier .NA, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin 1.02, Orange Cove .94, Porterville .85, Delano .86. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 65, Blackwell 74, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 71, Delano 62
Record Temperatures: 93/35. Average Temperatures: 77/48
Heating Degree Days this Season: 54 +9
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 63.3 -2.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.32. Month to Date: .00 -.32
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.14. Month to Date: .00 -.14
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 Sunset: 6:17 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:04
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 78 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 75 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 76 / 53 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 77 / 53 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 75 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 71 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 74 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 73 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 73 / 59 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 320 0.40 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 3 0.36 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.34 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.36 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 31 0.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 19 0.21 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.14 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 222 0.18 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 216 0.31 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 10 0.31 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 125 0.28 13.95
Next report: Tuesday, October 22