October 23, 2019
Summary: A strong ridge of upper level high pressure is centered just west of San Francisco this morning and is building a ridge northward through the Pacific Northwest and into British Columbia. Along the eastern side of the high is a strong north/northeast flow which is aiding in creating a strong off shore flow. The other element of this is a surface high located over the Great Basin. With pressure considerably higher over the interior than off the southern California coast, strong winds will buffet the Tehachapi Mountains. It’s possible localized gusty east to southeast winds could affect portions of the Kern County region of the valley from later this morning through this evening. It’s always a tough call, but at the very least temperatures will be driven well above average with warmest locations approaching the 90 degree mark today and Friday.
Beginning Saturday, a strong trough of low pressure will sweep southward from western Canada then into the Pacific Northwest. Models this morning push this trough further to the west than had previously been indicated with the western fringe of this trough moving through California. No active weather is anticipated. It will, though, result in much cooler temperatures and also will create another robust off shore flow. This time, however, it will be accompanied by a much cooler air mass.
We could see temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in some of the colder locations Monday morning. With an anticipated dry air mass, temperatures for much of next week will warm into the mid 70s but good radiational cooling will drop temperatures into the mid 30s to the lower 40s, especially north of Kern County. Low to mid 40s are anticipated for Kern County’s portion of the valley floor.
This trough will shift eastward by Monday night, allowing a weaker high at the upper levels of the atmosphere to build in from the west and remain anchored over the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the U.S. for most of next week. The bottom line is, no precipitation is on the horizon for now.
Forecast: Clear skies through Saturday night. mostly clear Sunday through next Thursday and considerably cooler.
Short Term:
| Madera 86/48/86/49/82 | Reedley 87/50/87/50/83 | Dinuba 85/48/85/48/81 |
| Porterville 87/49/87/49/83 | Lindsay 86/47/86/48/82 | Delano 87/51/87/52/83 |
| Bakersfield 88/57/88/57/84 | Taft 86/58/87/59/85 | Arvin 88/53/88/53/85 |
| Lamont 87/52/87/52/84 | Pixley 86/50/86/49/82 | Tulare 85/48/85/49/82 |
| Woodlake 86/49/85/49/82 | Hanford 87/50/85/50/83 | Orosi 86/48/85/48/81 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 44/73 |
Monday
Mostly clear 38/77 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 39/76 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 38/77 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 39/76 |
Two Week Outlook: October 31 through November 6: This model shows a massive area of cold low pressure east of the Rockies where temperatures will be below seasonal average. California is about the only exception to this. An off shore flow will nudge temperatures above average. The chance of precipitation appears to be very low.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday. It’s possible portions of the Kern County region of the valley floor could experience gusty east to southeast winds to about 30 MPH, especially near the base of the Tehachapi’s. if these winds occur at all, the time frame would likely be late morning through this evening with light winds returning Friday night through Saturday. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with possible gusts to 25 MPH, mainly in western Fresno and Kings Counties.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Mid Upper 20s to lower 30s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/70% at Hanford. Bakersfield 15%/35%
Actual Humidity range October 23, 2019: Delano, 86%/33% Porterville, 92%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.00, Parlier .81, Blackwell Corner .93, Arvin .97, Orange Cove .92, Porterville .80, Delano .82. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 63, Blackwell 73, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 71, Delano 62
Record Temperatures: 95/36. Average Temperatures: 76/48
Heating Degree Days this Season: 56 +1
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 63.5 -1.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.39. Month to Date: .00 -.39
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.17. Month to Date: .00 -.17
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:16 Sunset: 6:10 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:57
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 83 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 84 / 53 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 84 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 86 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 48 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 83 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 83 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 278 0.46 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 3 0.40 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.39 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.42 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 28 0.36 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 16 0.25 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.16 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 211 0.19 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 191 0.35 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 9 0.35 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 109 0.32 13.95
Next report: Friday, October 25