October 26, 2019
Summary:Strong upper level high pressure is beginning to retrograde into the eastern Pacific Ocean, but not before we have one more Indian Summer day with readings again in the mid to upper 80s. Yesterday, the Lemoore Naval Air Station hit an even 90, which was the warmest location in the San Joaquin Valley.
Major changes are occurring and already there are little inklings of those changes in the wind. The marine layer at Monterey has gone from nothing 24 hours ago to more than 1,000 feet this morning, indicating pressures are falling aloft. A cold trough of low pressure is digging southward from western Canada and has entered the Pacific Northwest. In another 24 hours, this low will engulf the Great Basin with central California being on the far western side. At the surface, a dry cold front will move through the valley late tonight and Sunday morning, bringing with it a much cooler air mass. Some locations may drop as much as 15 degrees Sunday as compared to today’s projected highs.
As the high off shore retrogrades, it will also build a sharp ridge far to the north into Alaska, creating a north/south flow aloft down the west coast. By Monday, surface high pressure will be increasing over the Great Basin. All of the above will create yet another strong off shore flow. This time, however, the association will be with a much cooler air mass. Local frost cannot be ruled out Monday through Wednesday mornings with widespread mid to upper 30s north of Kern County and even some upper 30s in the colder locations in Kern County. Despite the chilly mornings, afternoons will be pleasant with readings in the low to mid 70s for much of the week.
By Wednesday evening, the high off shore will begin to build into the western one-third of the U.S., continuing a very dry weather pattern which will last all of next week and, barring something unforeseen, well into the following week, as well.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies today and continued very warm. Mostly clear and breezy Sunday through Sunday evening and much cooler. Mostly clear skies Sunday night through Saturday with chilly nights and pleasant days.
Short Term:
| Madera 86/47/71/38/72 | Reedley 87/47/72/37/72 | Dinuba 86/46/71/37/71 |
| Porterville 88/47/72/37/72 | Lindsay 86/46/73/36/71 | Delano 88/49/72/39/72 |
| Bakersfield 88/55/72/46/72 | Taft 88/59/73/50/72 | Arvin 88/52/73/41/73 |
| Lamont 88/50/73/42/72 | Pixley 87/48/72/39/72 | Tulare 86/46/71/36/71 |
| Woodlake 86/46/72/37/72 | Hanford 86/47/71/39/72 | Orosi 86/46/71/37/71 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 36/73 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 37/77 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 36/71 |
Friday
Mostly clear 35/75 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 37/76 |
Two Week Outlook: November 2 through November 8: This model shows a massive area of cold low pressure east of the Rockies where temperatures will be below seasonal average. California is about the only exception to this. An off shore flow will nudge temperatures above average. The chance of precipitation appears to be very low.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds through the late evening hours will be at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. During the predawn hours, winds will become out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with gusts to near 30 MPH possible, mainly in Madera and Kings Counties and western Fresno County with areas of blowing dust possible. Winds will diminish in most areas later Sunday evening with winds generally at or less than 10 MPH Monday and Tuesday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 20%/85% at Hanford. Bakersfield 20%/6-%
Actual Humidity range October 25, 2019: Delano, 84%/22% Porterville, 94%/17%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .97, Parlier .80, Blackwell Corner .93, Arvin .98, Orange Cove .92, Porterville .82, Delano .83. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 64, Blackwell 73, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 71, Delano 63
Record Temperatures: 89/35. Average Temperatures: 75/47
Heating Degree Days this Season: 56 -11
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 63.8 -0.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.44. Month to Date: .00 -.44
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.20. Month to Date: .00 -.20
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:17 Sunset: 6:07 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:53
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 87 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 57 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 88 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 90 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 88 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 89 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 88 / 48 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 87 / 66 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 87 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 229 0.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 2 0.48 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.50 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.53 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 23 0.44 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 13 0.31 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.20 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 174 0.23 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 163 0.41 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 7 0.43 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 87 0.40 13.95
Next report: Monday, October 28