October 30, 2019
Summary: The extremes in temperatures and dew points are amazing this morning. North of Kern County, all of the ag stations are in the low to mid 30s with a temperature of 31 at Navalencia and Fowler. In Kern County, strong Santa Ana winds are moving down slope and onto the Kern County portion of the valley floor. The last report at Bakersfield had a temperature of 57. The dew point was -6 with a relative humidity of 7%. Winds are out of the southeast at 26 MPH, gusting to 39 with blowing dust.
The current barometric pressure at Salt Lake City is 30.38 inches of mercury while at LAX the pressure is 30.03, a difference of .35. That, coupled with a north/south Jetstream aloft, is creating the strongest off shore event of the season. Grapevine Peak near the top of the Grapevine reported gusts of 58 MPH. pressure differences will remain very tight for the rest of the day then will begin to relax overnight, allowing the winds to calm down. With a rather chilly air mass in place, along with very low dew points, overnight temperatures in river bottom and similar locations could drop to 28 to 30 degrees with widespread low to mid 30s elsewhere. In Kern County, the winds will determine overnight lows.
The overall pattern indicates strong pressure over the Great Basin with upper level high pressure off shore. The surface high will weaken beginning tonight as the upper high shifts a bit further eastward into California. The high will remain pretty much in place through the weekend, allowing daytime highs to warm marginally above average. Overnight lows, though, will continue to be well below average due to the very dry air mass settling to the valley floor.
Medium range models indicate the dry pattern will continue through the first week in November. A couple of models are pointing to a possible change beginning about the 9th which could, theoretically, bring rain back to central California. It has piqued my interest some as this is the third model run in a row pointing in that direction.
Forecast: Clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/31/69/32/72 | Reedley 70/32/69/32/71 | Dinuba 68/30/68/31/71 |
| Porterville 69/32/70/32/73 | Lindsay 69/31/69/31/72 | Delano 70/34/70/34/73 |
| Bakersfield 71/38/70/37/73 | Taft 71/45/70/40/73 | Arvin 69/34/70/33/73 |
| Lamont 69/35/70/34/73 | Pixley 69/32/69/32/72 | Tulare 68/30/69/31/71 |
| Woodlake 69/32/69/32/71 | Hanford 70/32/69/32/72 | Orosi 68/30/69/31/71 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 34/76 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 37/78 |
Monday
Mostly clear 38/75 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 37/75 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 39/76 |
Two Week Outlook: November 6 through November 12: This model shows more of a zonal or westerly flow across the Pacific and into north America. Unfortunately, the storm track remains to our north, so the chance of precipitation will remain low. Temperatures will run at least marginally above seasonal averages.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: In Kern County, strong, gusty Santa Ana winds will continue for much of the day, averaging 20 to 30 MPH at times with gusts over 45 MPH possible, especially near the base of the foothills. The winds will diminish this evening in Kern County, becoming light after midnight. Elsewhere, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper teens. Kern: single digits. Humidity values ranging from 15%/55% at Hanford. Bakersfield 10%/30%
Actual Humidity range October 29, 2019: Delano, 79%/21% Porterville, 86%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .99, Parlier .80, Blackwell Corner .93, Arvin .99, Orange Cove .89, Porterville .79, Delano .80. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 64, Blackwell 72, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 70, Delano 62
Record Temperatures: 91/27. Average Temperatures: 73/46
Heating Degree Days this Season: 84 -7
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for October so far: 63.0 -0.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -.56. Month to Date: .00 -.56
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.26. Month to Date: .00 -.26
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:21 Sunset: 6:03 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:43
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 70 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 70 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 72 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 71 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 71 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 65 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 70 / 49 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 178 0.72 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 2 0.61 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.70 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 18 0.56 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 T 0 0.04 9 0.44 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.26 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 148 0.27 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 129 0.52 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 5 0.55 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 66 0.53 13.95
Next report: Thursday, October 31