November 14, 2019
Summary: The first of two waves of low pressure is moving through this morning, marked by variable amounts of mid and high level clouds. The marine layer along the coast has certainly responded as it has jumped from about 1,600 feet yesterday to well over 4,000 feet this morning. With an on shore flow, it’s feeding the modified sea breeze into the valley. Temperatures will begin to come down from the unseasonable warm conditions of the past several days with most locations dropping into the lower 70s, still above average, however.
The second wave of low pressure will move through tonight and Friday morning. Skies will briefly clear ahead of this system this afternoon then clouds will increase again tonight with mostly cloudy conditions Friday morning. The air mass associated with this trough is somewhat cooler and will drop temperatures tomorrow afternoon into the mid 60s, briefly returning us to near average temperatures for the date.
The cooling trend will not last long. Behind that final system, upper level high pressure will begin to build in from the west. An upper low will develop off the southern California coast, but it will drift southward off the coast of Baja, meaning no impact for us. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will easily jump back into the mid to upper 70s, a good 11 to 15 degrees above average.
A pattern shift will occur Tuesday night and Wednesday as an elongated trough of low pressure will stretch from British Columbia to southern California. Models are in a great deal of variance on the timing and strength of this storm. I do feel it’s necessary to place a small chance of showers in the forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly over the mountain areas, as some models are showing decent dynamics. Others, though, show it as nothing more than a weak trough.
From late next week into the following week, most models show a zonal flow across the eastern Pacific and into the western U.S. with the storm track aimed at the Pacific Northwest and clipping northern California from time to time. Central California is left out.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness this morning. Mostly clear this afternoon and evening. Increasing cloudiness later tonight. Mostly cloudy Friday morning. Becoming mostly clear Friday afternoon. Mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday with a warming trend. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. mostly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday with a slight chance of showers Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/45/65/40/68 | Reedley 72/46/66/39/69 | Dinuba 71/44/64/38/68 |
| Porterville 73/46/66/40/68 | Lindsay 72/45/65/38/69 | Delano 73/46/66/42/70 |
| Bakersfield 74/50/65/45/70 | Taft 74/50/65/49/70 | Arvin 75/48/64/42/71 |
| Lamont 74/46/65/43/71 | Pixley 72/45/66/40/69 | Tulare 72/43/65/38/68 |
| Woodlake 72/45/66/39/69 | Hanford 72/45/66/40/68 | Orosi 72/43/66/39/68 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 43/76 |
Monday
Mostly clear 42/78 |
Tuesday
Increasing clouds 44/77 |
Wednesday
Slight chance of showers 48/65 |
Thursday
Mostly cloudy 43/65 |
Two Week Outlook: November 21 through November 27: This model actually shows a chance of above average precipitation over the southern half of California and especially the Desert Southwest with below average rainfall over the northern half of the state. Projected temperatures on this model are marginally above average.
November: The greatest possibility of above average temperatures will stretch from Texas westward to southern California with somewhat above average temperatures expected for central California. This model also projects a drier than average month, especially over the northern half of the state.
December, January, February: This model, as it always does, indicates above average temperatures for much of the lower 48, especially over the southwestern U.S. This model also dashes somewhat the hope for a good rainfall season as it shows below average precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and much of California.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: I am holding onto the ideal of at least a slight chance of showers for Wednesday and Wednesday night. considerable differences are apparent on models, but some kind of low pressure system will move through California. The best chance of showers will be over the Sierra Nevada and, to a lesser extent, the Kern County mountains. If precipitation does occur, anticipated amounts are very light. For now, we place the chance of showers at around 20% or so. But, considering the pattern of this fall season, 20% almost sounds like a small miracle. After next Wednesday, the storm track will migrate further north to return us to a dry weather pattern.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next 7 to 10 days.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 45%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/90%
Actual Humidity range November 13, 2019: Delano, 80%/30% Porterville, 91%/27%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .69, Parlier .64, Blackwell Corner .72, Arvin .83, Orange Cove .72, Porterville .69, Delano .67. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 59, Blackwell 66, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 64, Delano 58
Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 66/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 180 -54
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for November so far: 59.3- +4.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 0.00 season. or -1.07 Month to Date: .00 -.44
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 0.00, or -.55. Month to Date: .00 -.25
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 51, Parlier 106, Arvin 49, Shafter 73, Stratford 59, Delano 70, Lindcove 63, Porterville 107,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:37 Sunset: 4:50 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:15
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 77 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 77 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 79 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 79 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 78 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 78 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 80 / 45 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 78 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 75 / 49 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.28 85 1.50 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 1 1.20 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.37 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 1.43 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.10 9 1.07 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 4 1.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.55 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.40 80 0.50 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.67 63 1.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.03 3 1.06 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.35 31 1.12 13.95
Next report: Thursday, November 14/pm
Be sure to swing by John Hibler Weather Forecasting on Facebook and take our poll regarding the chance of rain next week.