November 15, 2019
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Summary: The backside of the trough of low pressure will slide east of the Sierra Nevada early this evening. Already, skies are beginning to clear from the northwest. As expected, the bottom side of the trough is pinching off and will form a closed low off the southern California coast tonight. it will move southward, parking off the northern Baja coastline Saturday through Monday night. this will allow upper level high pressure to build in from the west over the weekend, giving permission for temperatures to warm from the mid 60s today to the mid to upper 70s Sunday and Monday. The high will dominate the pattern through early Tuesday then a fairly significant low pressure system will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest and into northern California Tuesday afternoon. Models are following a trend similar to that of the past few days. They show the center of circulation of the low over or near central California by Wednesday morning and somewhere over either southern Nevada or southeast California Thursday.
The fact that this system is taking an overland trajectory certainly limits the moisture field around the storm, but the mid and upper levels of the dynamics will result in the likelihood of showers over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. There will be a lighter risk of showers over the valley floor. The greatest potential for measurable rain will be over the south valley Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Temperatures will dive from the mid to upper 70s Tuesday to the lower 60s Wednesday and Thursday.
Next Friday will be a transition day as the low moves into the Four Corners region and upper level high pressure begins to build in from the west for a return to dry weather.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight through Tuesday morning with patchy night and morning fog. Becoming partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night leading to a chance of light showers Wednesday through Thursday morning. A chance of light showers Thursday afternoon, mainly in Kern County. Becoming partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/68/37/74 | Reedley 37/69/37/74 | Dinuba 36/68/36/73 | |
| Porterville 37/70/37/74 | Lindsay 36/69/37/75 | Delano 39/70/41/76 | |
| Bakersfield 45/70/45/77 | Taft 48/69/50/76 | Arvin 40/70/42/77 | |
| Lamont 44/69/45/77 | Pixley 38/70/40/75 | Tulare 37/69/38/73 | |
| Woodlake 37/69/38/73 | Hanford 39/70/41/75 | Orosi 36/69/38/74 | |
Winds: Winds will continue to be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain: Models are still pointing at at least a minimal chance of light showers Wednesday into Thursday of next week. High pressure will give way to a low over the Pacific Northwest and northern California Tuesday with the bulk of the medium range models placing the center of circulation somewhere near central California Wednesday with the likelihood of showers over the Sierra Nevada. There will be a chance of scattered light showers over the valley floor. The low will move east/southeast Thursday when the best chance of light showers will be over the south valley, the Kern County mountains, and southern California. By Friday, this system is projected to be somewhere near the Four Corners region with a return to dry weather for the valley through at least next weekend and possibly well beyond.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the next 7 to 10 days.
Next report: Saturday morning/November 16