January 7, 2020
Summary: Every location from a Hanford/Visalia line north is reporting ¼ mile visibility or less. Porterville and Bakersfield are reporting a low overcast at around 500 feet above the valley floor. Temperatures this afternoon will be governed by the amount of clearing at any given location. Mid to upper 40s can be expected as highs where it does not clear with mid to upper 50s where the sun breaks through.
The low clouds and fog will no doubt last into at least Wednesday morning then two weather disturbances will move through central California. The first system will lose its dynamics as it moves through with showers confined mainly to northern California. The second will slide southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska and will move through northern and central California Thursday and Thursday night. this is by no means the storm of the century, however it may have enough punch for light showers over the valley floor with the likelihood of snow showers up and down the Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains.
A weak ridge of high pressure will bulge in from the west Friday and Friday night for a slot of dry weather.
The pattern for Saturday through Sunday is expected to be a ridge of high pressure just off shore with disturbances moving out of the Gulf of Alaska, moving south/southeast right along the coast line then through the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin just to the east of the Sierra Nevada. This makes for a tricky forecast. It’s possible these systems will track southward far enough to the west for a chance of light showers Saturday and Saturday night then possibly Sunday night and Monday.
The forecast models for the period of the 16th through the 19th are still quite interesting. If they come to pass, significant amounts of precipitation will occur, especially over the Sierra Nevada.
Forecast: Widespread fog and low clouds this morning. clearing is possible in some areas this afternoon. Widespread fog and low overcast tonight. variable cloudiness Wednesday through Thursday night. there will be a chance of light showers Thursday and Thursday night. mostly cloudy Friday morning with areas of night and morning fog. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon and night. increasing cloudiness Saturday leading to a chance of showers Saturday afternoon and night. a slight chance of shower Sunday through Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday with areas of night and morning fog Tuesday morning.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/34/55/37/52 | Reedley 56/34/55/39/51 | Dinuba 53/34/55/39/51 | |
| Porterville 58/34/55/39/52 | Lindsay 57/33/54/38/52 | Delano 56/35/55/40/51 | |
| Bakersfield 58/39/55/41/53 | Taft 60/41/55/42/53 | Arvin 59/37/55/40/52 | |
| Lamont 57/36/55/40/53 | Pixley 57/34/55/40/52 | Tulare 54/34/54/39/51 | |
| Woodlake 56/35/55/38/52 | Hanford 55/35/55/39/51 | Orosi 56/33/55/37/51 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
AM fog/partly cloudy 34/56 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 37/56 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 40/51 |
Monday
Chance of showers 39/56 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 34/57 |
Two Week Outlook: January 14 through January 20: This model is indicating a much higher than average risk of below average temperatures during this time frame with the possibility of precipitation from time to time.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through tonight. Winds Wednesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH, continuing Wednesday night. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at or around 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly in western Fresno and Kings Counties. Light to near calm winds will return later Thursday night through Friday.
Rain: The first of two weather systems will move through central California Wednesday, but it will be dry. A colder low pressure system will move quickly south/southeast from the Gulf of Alaska Thursday and Thursday night. this one may have enough dynamics for light showers over the valley floor. Any precipitation that does occur will be light with most locations recording at or less than .10. Dry weather will return Friday and Friday night. There will be a series of disturbances sliding south/southeast from the Gulf of Alaska Saturday through Monday. The bulk of the energy from these weak waves of low pressure will move into the Great Basin just to the east of the Sierra Nevada. There are models that show these system tracking southward far enough to the west for a chance of light showers at any time from Saturday through Monday. If precipitation occurs at all, only light amounts are anticipated. Dry weather will return Tuesday and Wednesday.
If models are correct, we could see very significant amounts of precipitation about the 16th. Some models are actually showing an atmospheric river of air moving into central California.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight, but only slightly above in the colder low lying locations. Above freezing conditions can be expected Thursday morning, as well. Lower 30s are possible Friday morning if skies clear behind an exiting low pressure system. My feeling is that plenty of upslope clouds will bank up against the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada for above freezing conditions at most locations. Generally above freezing conditions can be expected Saturday morning through Monday morning due to cloud coverage and a chance of light showers. These disturbances moving into central California are quite cold so several hours of clear skies on any night into early next week would see lows in the low to mid 30s.
Dry weather is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday for a chance of low to mid 30s, depending upon cloud cover. A very active and wet weather pattern will possibly set up about next Thursday for above freezing conditions.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 80%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 75%/100%
Actual Humidity range January 6, 2020: Delano, 100%/84% Porterville, 98%/64%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .31, Parlier .42, Blackwell Corner .35, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .32, Porterville .29, Delano .32. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 51, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 49, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 71/20. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 945 -313
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 48.7+4.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 2.88 season. or -1.02. Month to Date: .00 -.43
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.59, or +.40. Month to Date: .00 -.23
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 442, Parlier 508, Arvin 361, Shafter 428, Stratford 431, Delano 497, Lindcove 566, Porterville 792
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:12 Sunset: 4:59 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:47
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 54 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 53 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 53 / 40 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 52 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 43 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 54 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 54 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 52 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 4.33 84 6.03 117 5.14 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.23 72 4.64 104 4.46 13.11
MERCED 0.00 4.96 122 4.06 100 4.06 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.26 53 3.20 75 4.29 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 2.88 75 2.63 69 3.83 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.31 64 2.10 58 3.62 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.59 120 1.40 65 2.15 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 60 1.57 85 1.84 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.06 118 4.91 114 4.30 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.01 147 3.97 97 4.08 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.16 93 3.59 80 4.47 13.95
Next report: January 7/PM