trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 16, 2020
Summary: A powerful winter storm is slamming the Pacific Northwest with heavy precipitation and high winds. A strong cold front is now moving through northern California. As of the time of this writing, precipitation had advanced as far south as Monterey along the coast and Sacramento inland. As the front approaches later this afternoon, a sharp difference in pressure will set up between falling barometers to our northwest and higher pressure to our southeast. This will result in gusty, southeast winds up the valley, possibly gusting to 30 to 40 MPH this evening along the west side. This system is moving very fast, so most of the rain will occur from later this afternoon through the late evening hours with the precipitation rapidly grinding to a halt during the early morning hours. In fact, this system will already be over the Rocky Mountain region by midday Friday.
On Friday, upper level high pressure will quickly follow, leading to a dry weekend with seasonal temperatures. Areas of night and morning fog and low clouds can also be expected. Upslope clouds will also develop along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains later tonight and Friday, so clearing will be slow, especially in the south valley.
The next weather system of note will approach the northern California coast Monday night. each set of models that come across my desk point to a higher risk of precipitation for the valley from late Monday night through Tuesday night. some models are indicating the possibility of a tropical tap into the southern flank of the trough, in which case precipitation would become likely. Wednesday through Friday of next week will be dominated by a ridge of high pressure with the usual areas of night and morning valley fog.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this morning. periods of rain later this afternoon through the late evening hours. Mostly cloudy late tonight through Friday morning. partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning with areas of low clouds and fog Saturday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Monday with areas of night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Monday night with a chance of showers after midnight. Showers likely Tuesday and Tuesday night. becoming partly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/35/53/33/55 | Reedley 58/37/53/33/54 | Dinuba 57/36/53/32/54 | |
| Porterville 59/37/53/33/55 | Lindsay 59/36/53/32/56 | Delano 60/38/54/34/56 | |
| Bakersfield 62/40/53/37/56 | Taft 61/41/55/39/58 | Arvin 61/39/54/35/58 | |
| Lamont 61/40/54/35/57 | Pixley 59/38/53/33/55 | Tulare 57/36/53/32/54 | |
| Woodlake 58/36/53/32/55 | Hanford 59/37/53/34/55 | Orosi 58/36/53/31/54 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Am fog/partly cloudy 32/53 |
Monday
Am fog/partly cloudy 33/57 |
Tuesday
Showers likely 42/61 |
Wednesday
Am fog/partly cloudy 40/58 |
Thursday
Am fog/mostly clear 37/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 23 through January 29: This model is now indicating that a ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west during this time frame, resulting in generally above average daytime temperatures. The chance of precipitation will be low.
January: This model is rather inconclusive on precipitation and temperature trends. If anything, precipitation will be close to average with temperatures that are marginally above average. It does appear there will be potentially extended periods of dry weather, leading to episodes of fog and low clouds from time to time.
February, March, April: If this model has any kind of a grip on the situation, temperatures will run somewhat above average during the late winter/early spring period. This model would really dash the hopes of a wet winter as it does indicate below average rain for the three month period.
Winds: Winds this morning will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH this afternoon through the late evening hours with gusts over 30 MPH possible, mainly along the west side. Winds later tonight will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH. Winds Friday through Sunday will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Precipitation was rapidly advancing over northern California at this hour. A fast moving cold front will drive precipitation down the valley later this afternoon through the late evening hours. The typical rain shadows will develop along the west side of the valley and over Kern County. Rainfall amounts will generally range from .25 to .33 north of Kern County along the east side of the valley with locally more. Rain fall along the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties will range between .15 and .25. Over the valley portion of Kern County, .10 to .20 seems plausible.
Dry weather will quickly return late tonight and continue through Monday. Models seem to increase the chance of rain for late Monday night through Tuesday night. there is some indication now that this system will tap into the subtropics, in which case precipitation will become likely. From Wednesday through Friday of next week, dry conditions will prevail. Models are inconclusive for next weekend and beyond.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but only slightly above in the coldest low lying locations where skies happen to clear.
Behind the cold front which will move through this evening is relatively cold air, but certainly nothing unusual for mid January. On Saturday and Sunday mornings, if skies clear, widespread low to mid 30s are likely with a small chance of a few low lying regions dipping briefly into the upper 20s.
Fog and low clouds may become fairly widespread by Sunday and Monday mornings. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be above freezing due to cloud cover and an increasing chance of precipitation. Models show a mild westerly flow from Wednesday through next weekend, resulting in above average temperatures and above freezing conditions.
Still nothing on model information even suggesting a freeze threat on the horizon.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.. Humidity values ranging from 55%/100% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/95%
Actual Humidity range January 15, 2020: Delano, 100%/56% Porterville, 98%/54%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .44, Parlier .30, Blackwell Corner .36, Arvin .39, Orange Cove .34, Porterville .32, Delano .35. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 48, Blackwell 50, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 50, Porterville 49, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 71/20. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1128 -313
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for January so far: 46.1 +1.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2019 Fresno: 3.10 season. or -1.46. Month to Date: .22 -.87
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.64, or +.12. Month to Date: .05 -.51
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 569, Parlier 655, Arvin 478, Shafter 553, Stratford 550, Delano 611, Lindcove 727, Porterville 955
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 Sunset: 5:08 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:56
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 56 / 28 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 33 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 56 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 57 / 35 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 56 / 32 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 53 / 34 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 53 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 55 / 33 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 4.71 78 7.08 117 6.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.51 66 5.65 106 5.32 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.18 102 5.28 104 5.08 12.50
MADERA 0.00 2.57 49 3.86 74 5.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.10 68 3.54 78 4.56 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 2.61 58 2.76 62 4.47 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.64 105 1.61 64 2.52 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.10 49 1.65 74 2.23 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 5.14 100 5.14 100 5.15 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.04 121 5.45 109 5.01 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 4.25 79 5.34 100 5.36 13.95
Next report: January 16/afternoon