trudyhibler@johnhibler.com
573-707-3787
January 18, 2020
Summary:As of 1:00pm, Madera and Porterville were each reporting 44 degrees, Hanford 45, Bakersfield 46, Fresno 47, and both Avenal and Lost Hills were reporting 48 degrees. Visible satellite imagery this afternoon clearly shows low clouds stretching from the Lower Sacramento Valley southward to the base of the Tehachapi Mountains with few signs of erosion along the edges. It appears little if any clearing will occur this afternoon with temperatures remaining in the 40s.
It’s possible the fog may return to the ground tonight for reduced visibilities, at least in some areas, but many locations will more than likely remain under a cloud deck based at around 200 feet or so. For Sunday and possibly Monday, the low clouds may not clear at all for a repeat performance which would at least give groves out there some chilling hours. Currently, a ridge of upper level high pressure is moving through California, a process that will peak on Sunday. The freezing level is just under 11,000 feet so there is a nice warm air inversion which fog and low clouds simply relish. The high will temporarily give way Tuesday into early Wednesday as a trough of low pressure moves into the west coast. The parent low will move into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday afternoon, however, models are still showing a split off the California coast which will greatly reduce the chance of anything significant (if rain occurs at all).
From Wednesday through next weekend, models clearly show a dominant ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and much of the western U.S. Beginning Thursday, the main challenge will again be clouds and fog nights and mornings and the potential affects on temperatures , both for daytime highs and overnight lows. A mild westerly flow will continue all the way through the week so certainly no cold weather is on the horizon. In fact, on any day where sunshine is dominant, warmer locations could very well move into the 60s. we could actually see some 60s, mainly in Kern County, as early as Monday afternoon as a weak southerly flow begins to move downslope off the Kern County mountains, potentially warming the south valley.
Forecast: Low overcast and fog through Monday morning. areas of clearing are possible Sunday afternoon. Mostly cloudy Monday afternoon. Mostly cloudy Monday night leading to a chance of light showers Tuesday into early Wednesday. becoming partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon and night. Areas of night and morning fog with afternoon clearing Thursday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/51/38/57 | Reedley 31/54/39/60 | Dinuba 30/55/39/59 | |
| Porterville 30/53/39/61 | Lindsay 30/55/39/61 | Delano 31/55/39/62 | |
| Bakersfield 38/57/44/65 | Taft 40/62/44/65 | Arvin 34/63/40/65 | |
| Lamont 33/61/42/66 | Pixley 31/54/39/61 | Tulare 30/54/38/59 | |
| Woodlake 31/55/38/60 | Hanford 32/55/38/61 | Orosi 30/55/38/60 | |
Winds: Winds will be at or less than 6 MPH through Tuesday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: It appears our only chance of measurable rain will be later Tuesday into early Wednesday and even then the chance is not that great. A weather system will approach the California coast early Tuesday morning but then split. Typically, when the winds at the upper levels of the atmosphere split, the necessary dynamics for a storm are reduced. With that in mind, only a chance of light showers is anticipated. Later Wednesday morning and all the way through next weekend will be dry. Some models show a weak system approaching the coast again next Sunday night or Monday, but for now it doesn’t appear very impressive.
Frost Discussion: It is possible some areas may stay above freezing tonight due to a persistent low overcast which is having trouble burning off in some areas this afternoon. The temperature/dew point spread is very narrow this afternoon so where skies have cleared, fog will have no problem forming and becoming widespread. In areas where the low overcast remains persistent, readings will no doubt end up above freezing. Just in case, however, for my individual numbers, I will forecast readings similar to last nights with the coldest locations down to 28 to 29 and all other locations in the low to mid 30s.
This should be the last frost night we’ll see for a while as we will enjoy the benefits of increasing mid and high level clouds Sunday night and Monday morning for above freezing conditions. Heavy cloud cover will also do the job Tuesday and Wednesday. a weak trough of low pressure will move through later Tuesday and early Wednesday. the air mass behind this system will be quite mild so we will enjoy a week with above freezing temperatures.
Currently, there’s still nothing on paper suggesting a pattern that would interfere with the trend of this winter of unusually mild weather.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
31 |
Mcfarland
30 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside | Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
34 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
33 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: January 19/morning