March 6, 2020
Summary: Temperatures, as expected, are trending downward this afternoon. Most locations are 4 to 6 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, generally ranging in the mid 70s. From Stanislaus County north, temperatures are only in the mid 60s as marine air is gushing through the Delta. The latest sounding at Monterey indicated the marine was 3,000 feet deep. This is all in response to a weak trough of low pressure and its associated cold front which is just now entering northwest California. For now, it appears the front will move through the valley from mid to late afternoon Saturday with only a minimal chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County northward. The chance of showers will exist into the late evening hours Saturday with dry weather Sunday and Sunday night.
Much cooler weather will begin Saturday with most locations only in the mid 60s both Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
Some of the modeling information has moved up the timing of the precipitation shield to Monday morning. a nice swath of subtropical moisture is projected to be flanked along the low, moving into northern Baja and southern California. The parent low will be centered just west of Santa Maria Wednesday morning then will take an interesting jog southeastward, finally ending up on the southern California coast. It will eventually move into northern Baja later Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. so, we will have a good shot at precipitation from Monday through at least Monday morning. the chance of rain will steadily decline later Wednesday afternoon with dry weather Thursday through the remainder of next week.
Models still show a trough of low pressure moving through late Friday night and Saturday, but have backed off on the potential for precipitation this far south.
Forecast: Increasing clouds tonight. mostly cloudy Saturday and Saturday night with a minimal chance of showers, mainly late Saturday afternoon and mainly from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Sunday. Mostly cloudy Sunday night. rain spreading in from the southwest Monday. Periods of rain Monday night through Tuesday night. showers Wednesday, mainly during the morning. a slight chance of showers Wednesday night. partly cloudy Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 43/63/42/64 | Reedley 44/63/41/65 | Dinuba 42/62/42/64 | |
| Porterville 43/64/44/65 | Lindsay 42/63/42/65 | Delano 45/64/46/66 | |
| Bakersfield 48/65/47/66 | Taft 51/65/48/67 | Arvin 45/65/46/66 | |
| Lamont 45/65/46/67 | Pixley 44/64/43/64 | Tulare 42/62/42/64 | |
| Woodlake 43/64/44/65 | Hanford 44/63/45/65 | Orosi 43/63/44/65 | |
Winds: Winds will be light and variable tonight then will be out of the northwest later Saturday and Saturday night at 5 to 15 MPH. Winds Sunday will be variable to 12 MPH. winds Monday will be out of the east to southeast at 10 to 15 MPH. local gusts to 35 MPH will be possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.
Rain: Models this afternoon are roughly the same as they have been for several days on there being just a minimal chance of rain Saturday afternoon and night, mainly from Fresno County north. Where rain does occur, less than .10 is anticipated. Dry weather will temporarily return Saturday night through Sunday night. models have moved up the timing of potential precipitation to possibly as early as sometime Monday morning. as the low slowly approaches the coast, a pineapple connection will move mainly into southern California and northern Baja. Some models are showing significant precipitation along the central coast and along the Sierra Nevada from Tahoe south. As the low approaches the central coast near Santa Mara, models show it moving southeastward along the southern coast, eventually moving inland near northern Baja Thursday night. bottom line is: there will be the likelihood of rain later Monday through Tuesday night with a good chance of showers Wednesday, mainly during the morning. the chance of showers will dwindle by Wednesday night with dry weather after that, lasting for the rest of the week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Next report: March 7/morning