March 7, 2020
Summary: What a difference a day makes! Temperatures are between 12 and 15 degrees lower than they were 24 hours ago. The temperature at Blue Canyon at roughly 5,600 feet was 31 degrees, a full 25 degrees lower than yesterday afternoon. The balloon soundings at Vandenberg and Oakland showed freezing levels earlier today had dropped considerably. Still, this trough moving through this afternoon is quite weak and presents only a minimal chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County northward, until about midnight. Dry weather will return Sunday and Sunday night.
A very large low pressure system is moving southward about 1,000 miles west of the northern California coast. This system will make a right turn with the low moving towards the southern California coast Monday. Even though this storm will be well off shore Monday morning, the precipitation shield around the low is so large, rain will likely hit the central coast early Monday morning, spreading into the southern half of the San Joaquin Valley during the day Monday.
Meanwhile, a swath of subtropical moisture will feed into the southeast sector of the storm moving into southern California and northern Baja by Tuesday morning, resulting in potentially heavy amounts of rain for southern California and, eventually, the Desert Southwest. Even at this late date, models are still not in unison in nailing down a potential path for this storm. It is a given that southern California will receive the lion’s share from this event, but with some luck, around .25 to .50 is possible, mainly south of Fresno County. It’s conceivable that no rain will fall at all north of a Bay Area/ Stockton line.
The greatest potential for precipitation will be Tuesday into Wednesday morning. the chance of rain will taper off from northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon as the low tracks eastward. Weak high pressure will take over Thursday through Friday night.
Models are still unclear on a low pressure system that wil develop in western Canada, diving southward possibly just off shore or maybe even overland into northern and central California sometime later this coming weekend. A second low may follow a similar path the following week.
Forecast: a minimum chance of light showers tonight, mainly from Fresno County north and mainly before midnight. Partly cloudy Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night. rain becoming likely at times Monday through Tuesday night. showers likely Wednesday, mainly during the morning. partly cloudy Wednesday night through Friday night. increasing cloudiness Saturday with a slight chance of showers.
Short Term:
| Madera 43/66/47/67 | Reedley 44/67/47/67 | Dinuba 43/65/46/66 | |
| Porterville 44/67/48/67 | Lindsay 42/66/45/67 | Delano 45/67/48/68 | |
| Bakersfield 48/68/48/68 | Taft 49/67/50/69 | Arvin 45/68/46/69 | |
| Lamont 45/68/47/69 | Pixley 44/66/47/66 | Tulare 43/65/46/66 | |
| Woodlake 43/65/47/66 | Hanford 45/67/47/67 | Orosi 42/65/45/67 | |
Winds: Winds tonight through Sunday night will be variable to around 12 MPH. Winds Monday through Tuesday will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH. Local gusts to 35 MPH are possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.
Rain: A weak trough of low pressure is currently moving through central California. There are light showers from mainly Merced County northward and in the Sierra Nevada from Fresno County north. There remains a minimal chance of light showers tonight, mainly before midnight with dry weather Sunday and Sunday night.
A very large low pressure system is digging southward about 1,000 miles off the northern California coast. This storm will shift to the east Sunday. The precipitation wrapping around this storm covers a great deal of territory and may reach the central coast early Monday morning. it will spread inland as the day progresses. The best shot at significant precipitation will be Monday night through Tuesday night, possibly into Wednesday morning, especially south of Fresno County. Potentially, .25 to .50 could accumulate on the valley floor with possibly one to two inches of rain from Fresno County south along the Sierra Nevada. It appears the main pineapple connection will arrive in southern California and northern Baja Tuesday morning. the bulk of this moisture feed will remain south of Kern County. Even so, the dynamics may be strong enough over the southern half of the valley for some decent rainfall amounts. The rain will taper off from northwest to southeast as the low tracks southeastward. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and continue through Friday night.
The weather for the coming weekend is quite speculative. It does appear a low will track southward from western Canada, possibly tracking overland or just off shore for a chance of rain, mainly over the mountains this coming weekend. However there are huge timing issues on models, so we’ll just leave it at that for the moment.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Next report: March 8/morning