March 9, 2020
Summary: Doppler radar is indicating light showers have reached the coast near Vandenberg and just to the west of San Luis Obispo. The center of circulation is not expected to move much over the next 8 hours or so, so precipitation will not make it into the south valley until sometime tonight. in all likelihood, the lion’s share of the precipitation will be from Kern County southward. Models continue to indicate a broken pineapple connection is involved, mainly moving into southern California from Orange County southward into Baja Tuesday and Tuesday night. the center of the low will move to a position roughly 150 miles west of Vandenberg by midday Tuesday, stalling there for about 24 hours.
The low is then projected to slowly move down the southern California coast, eventually moving through northern Baja late Thursday night and Friday morning. the best chance for significant precipitation will likely be in the south valley, especially over Kern County. South of Fresno County, .25 to .50 is possible with this event. Precipitation will lighten up further north. Thursday through Saturday will be dry as a weak area of high pressure builds in from the west.
Models are still showing the development of a cold low near western Canada, moving southward into northern California late Saturday night through Monday. There are many differences between models on this system, but considering it will take an overland trajectory, another dry system will affect central California with low chances of rain on the valley floor and just light precipitation over the Sierra Nevada.
This storm will issue in a colder pattern, however, as a north/northwest flow develops along the western side of the low for possibly a prolonged period of below average temperatures beginning Monday or Tuesday of next week. Models give little hope of a wet pattern later next week, although the two week model still indicates above average precipitation for central California.
Forecast: Cloudy today. A chance of rain this evening. Rain becoming likely at times after midnight through Tuesday night. showers Wednesday, mainly during the morning with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday. partly cloudy Saturday night. a minimal chance of light showers Sunday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/47/68/49/69 | Reedley 69/48/68/49/70 | Dinuba 67/47/68/48/69 | |
| Porterville 69/46/68/49/70 | Lindsay 68/47/68/48/70 | Delano 69/49/69/49/70 | |
| Bakersfield 70/52/68/52/71 | Taft 68/53/69/53/69 | Arvin 70/50/70/52/70 | |
| Lamont 68/50/69/51/70 | Pixley 68/49/68/50/69 | Tulare 67/47/68/49/68 | |
| Woodlake 68/48/68/48/69 | Hanford 67/49/68/49/70 | Orosi 67/46/68/48/69 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 47/71 |
Friday
Mostly clear 47/74 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 48/73 |
Sunday
Slight chance of showers 45/64 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 41/65 |
Two Week Outlook: March 16 through March 22: This model continues to show above average precipitation over the southern half of California. the general pattern aloft will be out of the north to northwest. Temperatures will generally be below average during this time frame.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally out of the east to southeast at 5 to 12 MPH. Locally gusty east to southeast winds will be possible tonight through Wednesday near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains.
Rain Discussion: The first showers to reach California have done so near Santa Barbara and southern San Luis Obispo Counties. However, the main rain canopy will remain far enough to the west today to sneak in a dry day. The chance of rain will increase this evening and become likely at times after midnight, continuing through Tuesday night. a few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Showers are likely Wednesday, mainly during the first half of the day with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. The chance of showers will decrease Wednesday night with dry weather returning Thursday.
The heaviest precipitation will be in the south valley, especially in Kern County, which is opposite of what we generally see with winter storms. Anywhere from .25 to .50 is possible south of Fresno County with less than .25 from Fresno County north. If thunderstorms occur, locally more cannot be ruled out.
Dry weather will return Thursday through Saturday.
Models continue to show a cold low developing over western Canada, sliding southward into northern and central California Sunday and Monday. Some models show it moving into Nevada instead. Either way, this system will take an overland trajectory, meaning the moisture field will be limited. Light showers will be likely over the Sierra, but there will just be a minimal chance over the valley floor. After next Monday night, it looks like dry conditions will prevail.
Frost Discussion: Expect temperatures to be above 32 degrees indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern, low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/85%
Actual Humidity range March 8, 2020: Delano, 91%/35% Porterville, 96%/36%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 0%. Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .92, Parlier .80, Blackwell Corner 1.03, Arvin .98, Orange Cove .84, Porterville .91, Delano .93. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 60, Blackwell 57, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 58, Delano 55
Record Temperatures: 86/32. Average Temperatures: 67/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1794 -450
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 56.0. +2.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 3.54 or -4.72. Month to Date: .00 -.57
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 2.84, or -1.86. Month to Date: .00 -.34
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:16, Sunset: 7:02 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:44
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 62 / 44 / 0.05 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 64 / 40 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 64 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 65 / 38 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 65 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 68 / 48 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 66 / 41 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1651 / 63 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 67 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 67 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON T 5.43 51 13.99 131 10.65 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 3.92 40 10.66 110 9.70 13.11
MERCED 0.00 5.74 63 10.91 119 9.15 12.50
MADERA 0.01 2.91 32 8.42 93 9.01 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 3.54 43 8.77 106 8.26 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.12 42 7.20 96 7.50 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 2.84 60 5.80 123 4.70 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.32 36 7.41 200 3.70 5.18
SALINAS T 6.04 63 11.03 114 9.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.01 6.64 68 13.12 134 9.78 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 4.88 46 13.56 128 10.60 13.95
Next report: March 9/afternoon