March 10, 2020
Summary: As of 1:00pm, radar was pretty quiet over the valley floor. However, numerous showers and thunderstorms were moving through Santa Barbara and southern San Luis Obispo Counties. Widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm activity continue over southern California with the heaviest activity over the Imperial Valley and southward through northern Baja. The center of circulation is now roughly 100 miles west of Santa Barbara. The counterclockwise circulation around the low is rotating showers and thunderstorms from southeast to northwest across central California.
The best chance for any significant precipitation will be tonight and early Wednesday when the center of the storm will be closest to the coastline. Models then show the storm moving slowly southeastward just off the southern California coast, continuing the shower and thunderstorm activity over southern California through at least Friday morning. most of the action over the valley floor will end by Wednesday evening as the low continues to pull off to the southeast.
Thunderstorms will be possible tonight with another minimal chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Dry weather will return Wednesday night as a weak high pressure system begins to fill in from the west. The low will finally move inland through southern California and northern Baja Thursday night and Friday morning.
While that’s happening, a new low will develop over western Canada, sliding southward and possibly centering near northwest California early Sunday morning. it may make it down to Monterey by Sunday evening. This will increase the chance of light showers Sunday well into Monday. Some models place the center of circulation just west of LA Monday morning. some models show the low pressure system opening up into a broader trough of low pressure covering California and much of the Desert Southwest. A northerly flow will be flanked right along the coast between high pressure off shore and the low over the western U.S. for a prolonged period of below average temperatures.
Forecast: Periods of showers tonight through Wednesday morning with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday with increasing cloudiness Saturday night. a chance of showers Sunday through Monday night. a slight chance of showers Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 50/69/45/72 | Reedley 51/62/46/72 | Dinuba 49/69/44/71 | |
| Porterville 52/69/45/73 | Lindsay 50/68/44/72 | Delano 51/70/46/72 | |
| Bakersfield 53/68/50/73 | Taft 53/68/51/73 | Arvin 51/68/50/73 | |
| Lamont 52/69/50/73 | Pixley 51/70/45/72 | Tulare 49/69/44/71 | |
| Woodlake 50/69/44/72 | Hanford 51/69/46/72 | Orosi 48/69/43/71 | |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the east or southeast at around 5 to 12 MPH through Wednesday with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers. Winds Wednesday night through Friday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly in the night and morning hours.
Rain: All of the action thus far, outside of a few light showers, has been over the Coast Range and just off shore. As of 1:00pm, numerous shower and thunderstorms were rumbling through Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties. The best chance of significant rain will be tonight into early Wednesday morning when the center of the low will be nearest. The south valley has a considerably higher chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The chance of showers will diminish Wednesday afternoon, however daytime heating may be enough to trigger isolated thunderstorms before the precipitation ends by Wednesday evening.
Rainfall amounts in southern Kings, southern Tulare, and Kern Counties could still tally up to .25 to .50 with no more than a tenth or two from Fresno County north.
Dry weather will prevail Thursday through Saturday night. a very different type of storm will affect central California during the second half of the weekend and early next week in the form of a cold low with origins in western Canada. The chance of light showers will increase Sunday, continuing through Monday, although models continue to indicate this system will be lacking moisture. Some models indicate the low will open up into a much broader trough of low pressure next Tuesday and Wednesday, continuing the risk of showers by mainly over the mountain areas.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next 7 to 10 days.
Next report: March 11/morning