March 16, 2020
Summary: A strong winter storm is located roughly 150 miles to the west of the Golden Gate this morning. A wide swath of precipitation is moving up the eastern side of the low, moving on shore from Ventura County to Santa Clara County. Precipitation is widespread over the northern half of the San Joaquin Valley with showers finally overtaking the rain shadow and moving into the south valley. This wide area of rain will slowly move inland today with the potential for significant precipitation, especially north of Kern County or away from that rain shadow. Models are also pointing to the chance of embedded thunderstorms this afternoon. The back side of this precipitation shield will move into Nevada later tonight.
The area of low pressure will also shift into Nevada by Tuesday, but interestingly enough models are picking up on a secondary low developing over western Nevada and eastern California Tuesday into Wednesday. the back side of this unusual feature will be over the San Joaquin Valley Tuesday and Wednesday. some models are indicating the possibility of another round of showers and possibly thunderstorms Tuesday and again Wednesday afternoons. If this occurs, the chance of strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out which would be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. The secondary low will finally shift eastward Wednesday evening, allowing a weak area of high pressure to shift eastward into California Thursday through Friday night.
The pattern for the weekend indicates a new low will drop into the Pacific Northwest Saturday, forming a cold trough of low pressure down into California Sunday for another chance of showers. Models for at least the first half of next week are indicating a cold area of low pressure will be over the western U.S. for periods of precipitation from time to time with well below average temperatures.
Forecast: Rain today and tonight with a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Showers Tuesday with a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. A small chance of showers Tuesday night and Wednesday with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy Wednesday night through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. mostly cloudy Saturday. a chance of showers Saturday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/38/58/38/60 | Reedley 57/39/59/39/61 | Dinuba 56/37/58/37/60 | |
| Porterville 61/39/59/37/61 | Lindsay 58/37/59/37/60 | Delano 61/41/59/39/61 | |
| Bakersfield 65/41/60/40/62 | Taft 62/41/60/40/60 | Arvin 65/41/59/40/59 | |
| Lamont 63/40/60/40/59 | Pixley 59/39/59/38/61 | Tulare 56/37/58/36/60 | |
| Woodlake 59/37/59/37/61 | Hanford 58/39/59/37/61 | Orosi 58/37/60/36/60 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 38/63 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 40/63 |
Saturday
Mostly cloudy 43/66 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 45/65 |
Monday
Chance of showers 42/63 |
Two Week Outlook: March 21 through March 27: this model continues to show a broad trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska over the western U.S. This pattern favors below average temperatures and a greater than average possibility of precipitation from time to time.
March: This model does not portray a break in the dry winter we’ve experienced thus far. Generally speaking, a ridge of upper level high pressure is projected to be the primarily feature just off the central coast, resulting in above average temperatures and drier than average conditions.
March, April, May: This model indicates above average temperatures in a swath from the west coast all the way into the southwestern U.S. Precipitation is also expected to be below average from California through the Desert Southwest.
Winds Discussion: Models are showing significant differences in pressure between that low west of San Francisco and southern California. There is a chance of strong, gusty winds over the Kern County portion of the valley floor today, although as of 7:00am they’ve yet to materialize. If they do, gusts in excess of 40 MPH are possible, especially near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains with gusts in excess of 30 MPH as far north as Bakersfield. Elsewhere, winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds tonight through Tuesday will be out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH. Winds Wednesday night and Thursday will generally be light.
Rain Discussion: A wide area of precipitation is moving on shore from Ventura county all the way up to Santa Clara County and is moving from south to north. The rain shadow continues in Kern County, however the lower level of the atmosphere is finally moistening up enough for precipitation elsewhere. Expect rain today through much of the night with even a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
The forecast for Tuesday through Wednesday is a tricky one. Models are showing the development of a secondary low over western Nevada and eastern California with the western side of this feature hanging back over the San Joaquin Valley. This could potentially produce scattered showers or even isolated thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Some models go so far as to show the development of isolated strong storms.
Dry weather will finally return Wednesday night through at least Friday night and probably Saturday. rainfall amounts north of Kern County from now through Wednesday should tally up to between .50 and 1.00 with locally heavier amounts along the east side from central Tulare County north. Over the valley portion of Kern County, anywhere from a few tenths to a third of an inch is possible.
The next chance of rain will arrive during the second half of the weekend. In fact, models are indicating there will be a reasonably good chance of precipitation from time to time through the first half of the week next week.
Frost Discussion: The pool of cold unstable air will move across the valley through tonight. locations that observe a few hours of clearing during the early morning hours will drop into the mid to upper 30s. there is a chance of lower 30s in river bottom and similar locations. There is a minor risk of lower 30s Wednesday morning as skies begin to clear. Widespread mid to upper 30s are anticipated with the coldest locales possibly down to 30 to 32. Some moderation will occur Thursday and Friday, however, mid 30s are certainly possible in the coldest locations. Over the weekend, clouds will increase ahead of the next cold Pacific storm for above freezing temperatures Saturday and well into next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 75%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/90%
Actual Humidity range March 15, 2020: Delano, 92%/35% Porterville, 87%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 50%. Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .86, Parlier .82, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .86, Orange Cove .77, Porterville .78, Delano .81. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 60, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 60, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 61, Delano 57
Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 68/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1841 -473
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 57.1. +2.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average + or – 3.74 or -5.03. Month to Date: .20 -.88
Since Oct 1, 2019, Bakersfield: 3.52, or -1.48. Month to Date: .68 +.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967, Parlier 1035, Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:07, Sunset: 7:08 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:00
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 58 / 49 / 0.21 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 61 / 48 / 0.01 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 64 / 51 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 64 / 47 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 65 / 44 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 69 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 65 / 48 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 57 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 70 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 64 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr season % last year % Ave. 365 day ave.
STOCKTON 0.50 6.35 57 14.00 125 11.19 14.06
MODESTO 0.30 4.27 42 10.76 105 10.21 13.11
MERCED 0.22 6.09 63 11.05 114 9.66 12.50
MADERA T 3.15 33 8.66 92 9.44 12.02
FRESNO T 3.70 42 8.90 101 8.77 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.41 43 7.23 92 7.88 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.52 70 5.80 116 5.00 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 1.53 40 7.41 193 3.83 5.18
SALINAS 0.36 6.59 64 11.51 113 10.23 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.32 7.63 73 13.34 128 10.45 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.13 6.00 53 13.56 120 11.27 13.95
Next report: March 16/afternoon