March 19, 2020
Summary: The air mass above central California remains very cold and unstable. Earlier today, the balloon sounding above Vandenberg found a freezing level of just 4,200 feet. Up at Oakland, the sounding pegged the freezing level at 4,400 feet. A cold pocket of air associated with a small upper low centered near Huntington Lake this afternoon, combined with daytime heating, is resulting in widely scattered showers and even a few very small isolated thunderstorms. One of these storms skirted Lindsay about 1:00pm. A small funnel cloud was even sighted near Selma around 1:30pm. This activity will continue through the evening hours, but as the daytime heating process wanes, the showers will dissipate.
With some luck, the valley will be dry Friday and through most of the weekend, although models are still indicating a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains during the afternoons and evenings.
A low center has already dropped southward well off the California coast. This storm will be our next challenge as most models indicate it will shift inland through central California Sunday night and Monday with widespread shower activity. Of more importance, however, is that models have been consistent in showing the development of a large trough of low pressure Tuesday through Wednesday night, stretching from British Columbia to southern California. Models indicate a strong jet stream will be flanked along the bottom of this low into central and southern California. This energy will move perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada, meaning lift could generate impressive amounts of rain and snow. This system will also be quite cold with snow levels down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet.
Thursday appears to be the transition day between the recent wet pattern and a drier pattern as the storm track shifts further north.
Forecast: A chance of widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening. Becoming partly cloudy overnight. Partly cloudy Friday through Sunday morning. increasing cloudiness Sunday afternoon. Periods of showers will become likely Sunday night through Monday. Periods of rain Monday night through Wednesday night. partly cloudy Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/64/41/68 | Reedley 37/65/41/70 | Dinuba 36/63/40/68 | |
| Porterville 36/65/40/70 | Lindsay 35/64/39/69 | Delano 37/66/41/69 | |
| Bakersfield 41/66/44/71 | Taft 40/64/44/69 | Arvin 38/67/41/70 | |
| Lamont 39/66/41/71 | Pixley 37/65/42/70 | Tulare 35/64/39/69 | |
| Woodlake 36/65/39/68 | Hanford 37/65/42/70 | Orosi 35/64/39/69 | |
Winds: Winds will be variable to 12 MPH through Sunday with periods of near calm conditions during the night and morning hours.
Rain: The chance for widely scattered showers and even a brief isolated thunderstorm will continue through the evening hours. A few brief pockets of small hail will be possible with any thunderstorm activity. From Friday through Sunday, showers will be confined to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada with a few showers over the Kern County mountains. The next Pacific storm will drive inland Sunday night and Monday with widespread shower activity anticipated. Just as quickly as that system exits stage right, a big trough of low pressure will develop from British Columbia all the way to southern California and off shore. We may see a considerable amount of energy moving from west/southwest to north/northeast across central California. This pattern is typically favorable for significant rain and snow along the Sierra Nevada and rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County. At any rate, from Sunday night through Wednesday night, we can expect a very active period of time in the world of weather with dry weather returning Thursday and lasting for several days thereafter.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. coldest low lying pockets tonight will dip down to around 34 to 36 degrees with most locations ranging from 37 to near 42 or so. More moderation will occur over the weekend, ensuring above freezing conditions. Above freezing conditions will prevail through at least next Wednesday. it’s possible that as that cold trough exits California next Thursday, that lows could drop to below 32 again next Thursday and Friday of next week. However, no widespread frost or freeze event is anticipated.
Next report: March 20/morning