March 21, 2020
Summary: What is left of a weak upper air disturbance is centered over Merced and Madera Counties this afternoon. Light showers continued for much of the day over Fresno and Madera Counties. Fresno has recorded .05 and Madera .09. the south valley remained dry. Models show this little feature simply dissipating this evening.
In the meantime, about 500 miles off shore is a low pressure system which is beginning to make its move towards the central and southern California coast. Models have been amazingly consistent in showing the center of circulation moving through southern San Luis Obispo and Kern Counties. In fact, that low center should be over Kern County by about sunrise Monday morning. rain will reach the central California coast Sunday morning, spreading over the valley by late afternoon. This storm will be a fairly quick mover. Even so, rainfall totals of between .25 and .50 north of Kern County will be possible.
The precipitation will wind down by midday Monday with just a chance of showers Monday afternoon and night. to our north, though, a low pressure system currently moving out of the Aleutians and into the northeast Gulf of Alaska will slide southward just off shore, centering just west of Washington state by Monday night. this very cold system will develop a trough and swing that trough through northern and central California Tuesday night through Wednesday night. the precipitation pattern will be showery and, with a 140 knot jet stream sweeping inland over central California Tuesday night and Wednesday, the typical rain shadow effect will take over along the west side and in Kern County. The flip side is lift will enhance the precipitation along the Sierra Nevada.
With strong wind energy aloft, and cold unstable air, thunderstorms will be a distinct possibility Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some models show the back side of the trough hanging back over central California through Thursday morning, but others indicate it will clear the Sierra Nevada late Wednesday night. in any case, a chance of showers for Thursday morning, especially early morning, is what I’m calling for.
Models continue to trend towards a warmer and dry pattern beginning Thursday afternoon and lasting at least through the first few days of the following week, if not longer.
Forecast: A chance of light showers this evening, mainly from Fresno County north. Becoming partly cloudy later tonight. increasing cloudiness Sunday morning. a chance of rain Sunday afternoon, especially after 3:00pm. Rain at times Sunday night and Monday morning. a chance of showers Monday afternoon. A slight chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday. Periods of showers Tuesday night through Wednesday night. a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A chance of showers for a time Thursday morning. partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. mostly clear Friday afternoon through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 43/66/49/65 | Reedley 42/67/50/65 | Dinuba 42/65/49/64 | |
| Porterville 42/67/50/65 | Lindsay 41/67/48/66 | Delano 48/67/50/66 | |
| Bakersfield 51/67/51/65 | Taft 50/66/51/65 | Arvin 45/67/49/66 | |
| Lamont 46/67/50/65 | Pixley 43/66/50/66 | Tulare 41/66/48/64 | |
| Woodlake 42/67/49/65 | Hanford 43/68/50/66 | Orosi 40/67/46/65 | |
Winds: Winds tonight through Sunday morning will be variable to 12 MPH. Winds Sunday afternoon and night will be generally out of the east to southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds Monday through Tuesday will be variable to 15 MPH.
Rain: There is still a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north, this evening with dry weather later tonight through Sunday morning. the chance of rain will begin to increase Sunday afternoon, especially after roughly 3:00pm. Expect rain at times Sunday night and Monday morning. rainfall amounts will range from between .25 and .50 north of Kern County and over the eastern half of the valley, about .25 to .33 along the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties, and generally less than .25 over the valley portion of Kern County. There’s just a chance of showers Monday afternoon through Tuesday.
A much colder storm will take over with showers spreading in from the west Tuesday night and continuing on and off through Wednesday night. there will also be a chance of showers Thursday morning. isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, which would be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Rainfall amounts between Tuesday night and midday Thursday will vary widely, but will generally range from between about .20 to upwards of about .50 or so with locally more possible should thunderstorms break out.
All of the medium range models are pointing to dry weather between Thursday afternoon and lasting for at least a week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will remain above freezing each night for the foreseeable future. A cold air mass will be overhead Wednesday through Friday of next week. A relatively clear night during that time frame could see temperatures lower into the mid to upper 30s with a slight chance of lower 30s in river bottom and like locations. No significant frost or freeze situation is anticipated.
Next report: March 22/morning