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Forecast

March 24, 2020/report

March 24, 2020

Summary: Scattered showers are currently spreading over northern California and along the sierra Nevada from Fresno County northward.  A very cold low is centered just to the west of Portland, Oregon this morning.  its associated trough is oriented from northeast to southwest from southern British Columbia to off the northern California coast.  This trough will swing inland Wednesday through Thursday.  The jet stream will align almost west to east across central California, resulting in good lift along the Sierra Nevada.  Typically, this type of storm does not carry significant amounts of precipitation, however as the colder sector of the storm arrives late Wednesday through Thursday, thunderstorms will be possible from roughly noon through the early evening hours.  These storms will be accompanied by their good buddies, localized heavy rain and small hail.

 

Most of the rain activity today will be from Fresno County north and along the Sierra Nevada foothills with the action spreading over the remainder of the valley tonight.  the origins of this storm are north of the Aleutian Islands, so obviously it’s very cold.  Snow levels along the Sierra will drop to between 3,000 and 4,000 feet.

 

Thursday and Friday mornings will be chilly.  If skies clear for several hours at any location, widespread mid to upper 30s will be likely.  This is discussed below.

 

Models continue to show this storm moving into the interior west Friday, ending precipitation for what should be the beginning of a prolonged period of dry weather.  However, there are a couple of models this morning showing a weak trough of low developing and moving through the Pacific Northwest and northern California Sunday.  This could result in showers over the Sierra Nevada.  We’ll watch to see if this trend continues.

 

Medium range models are still pointing towards dry weather with above average temperatures for virtually all of next week.

 

Forecast: A chance of scattered showers today, mainly from Fresno County north and mainly along the Sierra Nevada foothills.  Periods of showers tonight through Thursday night.  isolated thunderstorms will be possible both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons and evenings.  Partly cloudy Friday morning.  mostly clear Friday afternoon through Saturday.  partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night.  mostly clear Monday through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 60/43/58/35/57 Reedley 61/44/59/36/57 Dinuba 60/42/57/34/57
Porterville 62/42/59/35/58 Lindsay 62/41/59/34/57 Delano 62/44/59/37/57
Bakersfield 63/45/60/40/57 Taft 63/46/60/41/57 Arvin 63/43/59/38/58
Lamont 62/43/59/39/57 Pixley 62/43/58/35/57 Tulare 60/41/57/34/57
Woodlake 61/42/58/35/58 Hanford 62/43/58/36/57 Orosi 61/41/58/34/57

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Partly cloudy

35/63

Saturday

Mostly clear

39/64

Sunday

Partly cloudy

41/68

Monday

Mostly clear

42/72

Tuesday

Mostly clear

45/75

 

Two Week Outlook: March 31 through April 6:  For the first time in two weeks, this model is indicating that high pressure will dominate the pattern over California.  Temperatures will range near seasonal averages with drier than average conditions prevailing.

 

April:  Typically, these models really do not offer a good handle on a weather direction.  This particular model is even muddier than most.  It simply indicates near average temperatures with near average rain over the next 30 days.

 

April, May, June  Like most longer range forecasts, above average temperatures are indicated over the next 90 days for most of the lower 48, including central California.  This  model gives equal chances of above or below average precipitation, but considering we are now into the dry season, it’s pretty much a moot point anyway.

 

Winds Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH through Wednesday with stronger gusts possible.  Winds Thursday and Thursday night will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts with light winds returning Friday.

 

Rain Discussion:  Most of the shower activity today will be fairly widely scattered and mainly along the Sierra Nevada foothills, especially from Fresno County north.  As the main body of cold low pressure begins to  move overhead, the chance of showers will increase throughout the valley tonight, continuing on and off through Thursday night.  with a pool of very cold, unstable air overhead coupled with the strong spring sun, thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.  Localized heavy rain and small hail, as is usual, would be the result of thunderstorms.

 

Rainfall amounts from today through Thursday night will range from only .10 to .20.  A few locations, however, could pick up as much as .50 if  isolated thunderstorms develop.  Dry weather will return Friday and will last for the seven day period thereafter.

 

One model, however, is hinting at a weak trough of low pressure moving through northern California Sunday and Sunday night.  this is a new feature on models, so we’ll just have to watch it and see if adjustments need to be made to the forecast.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight.  On Thursday and Friday mornings, if skies clear for any length of time, widespread mid to upper 30s could occur.  We’ll continue to forecast a minimal chance of low 30s in isolated river bottom and other low lying locations.  For Thursday morning, there’s an excellent chance we’ll have plenty of cloud cover, keeping conditions above freezing.  Even on Friday morning, residual cloud cover could, to some extent, play a role.  The air mass will begin to modify over the weekend for above freezing conditions from Saturday through at least the following week.  For now, there’s nothing on longer range models favoring a particularly cold weather pattern.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern, mid to upper 40s.  Humidity values ranging from 65%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 60%/90%

Actual Humidity range March 23, 2020: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/53%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 0%, tomorrow 20%.  Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 20%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .75, Parlier .80, Blackwell Corner .NA, Arvin .96, Orange Cove .81, Porterville .87, Delano .88. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 57, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 58, Delano 54

Record Temperatures: 85/34. Average Temperatures: 69/43

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1945 -442

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for February so far: 55.2. +0.2

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average + or –  5.51 or -3.77.  Month to Date: 1.97 +.38

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Bakersfield:  4.34, or -.97.  Month to Date: 1.50 +.55

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove 967,  Parlier 1035,  Arvin 831, Shafter 885, Stratford 938, Delano 1013, Lindcove 1171, Porterville 1531

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:54, Sunset: 7:16 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:19

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  64 /  51 / 0.18 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  67 /  51 / 0.27 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  56 /  52 / 0.46 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  66 /  50 / 0.69 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  67 /  50 / 0.33 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  67 /  49 / 0.27 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  58 /  50 / 0.62 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1648 /  64 /  49 /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  61 /  47 / 0.72 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 /  65 /  48 /    M /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  67 /  51 /    M /

 

 

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    7.05    60   15.00   128    11.71    14.06

MODESTO                       0.07    5.53    52   11.73   110    10.71    13.11

MERCED                        0.14    7.55    75   11.70   116    10.10    12.50

MADERA                        0.05    4.23    43    9.52    98     9.76    12.02

FRESNO                        0.25    5.51    59    8.99    97     9.28    11.50

HANFORD                       0.18    5.03    61    7.32    89     8.20    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.13    4.34    82    5.85   110     5.31     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    1.73    44    7.55   191     3.95     5.18

SALINAS                       0.01    7.62    71   12.00   111    10.79    12.83

PASO ROBLES                      T    9.58    87   13.77   125    11.05    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.04    8.48    71   14.01   118    11.90    13.95

 

 

Next report: March 24/afternoon