March 24, 2020
Summary: A cold low pressure system is centered just to the west of the Oregon coast this afternoon. Its associated cold front is moving through northern California. Light showers have spread as far south as a Monterey/Merced line. The air aloft is quite telling as the freezing level early this morning over Vandenberg was 8,600 feet. However, over Oakland the freezing level had dropped to 4,400 feet. Obviously, an invasion of very cold air aloft is underway. We’ll be prone to periods of showers tonight through tomorrow night. the coldest and most unstable portion of this storm will be right overhead late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. the combination of cold, unstable air aloft and daytime heating should result in a chance of thunderstorms both Wednesday and again Thursday afternoon.
The weather will begin to improve by Friday morning as a flat zone of upper level high pressure begins to fill in from the west behind the exiting trough, moving in warmer air aloft for the beginning of a warming trend. That trend will continue well into next week.
Models still indicate a weak trough of low pressure will move through northern California Saturday night and Sunday, but for now it appears any active weather will be confined to the Sierra Nevada and northern California. Medium range models for next Wednesday and beyond show the possibility of a large low developing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, eventually resulting in a trough all the way southward into California for the possibility of more rain about 7 or 8 days down the road.
Forecast: A chance of scattered showers south of Fresno County tonight with showers likely from Fresno County north. Periods of showers Wednesday through Thursday night. there will be a threat of isolated thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons and evenings. Partly cloudy Friday morning. mostly clear Friday afternoon and night. variable cloudiness Saturday through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night. mostly clear Monday and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 44/57/36/58 | Reedley 44/58/37/58 | Dinuba 42/57/34/57 | |
| Porterville 43/58/36/58 | Lindsay 43/59/35/58 | Delano 45/59/37/58 | |
| Bakersfield 47/59/40/57 | Taft 46/60/39/58 | Arvin 44/60/39/57 | |
| Lamont 45/59/39/58 | Pixley 44/59/36/58 | Tulare 43/57/34/57 | |
| Woodlake 43/58/36/58 | Hanford 45/58/37/58 | Orosi 43/57/34/58 | |
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west or northwest at 8 to 15 MPH tonight through Wednesday with stronger gusts near showers. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Thursday night with light winds returning Friday.
Rain: Light showers have spread as far south as a Monterey/Merced line. There is a high risk of light showers from Fresno County north tonight with less of a chance further south. There will be periods of showers Wednesday through Thursday night and a risk of isolated thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons and evenings. Any thunderstorms will of course be accompanied by locally heavy rain and small hail. This storm will shift into the interior west Friday, ending the chance of precipitation. Rainfall amounts from now through Thursday night will generally be just a tenth or two to possibly about a quarter of an inch. If isolated thunderstorms occur, a few spots could tally .50.
Dry weather will prevail from Friday through the weekend, although a weak trough will move through northern California Saturday through Sunday. At this point, it appears any active weather will be confined to the Sierra Nevada.
For the second model run in a row, one of the medium range models is suggesting a strong low will develop off the coast of the Pacific Northwest about Wednesday of next week, possibly digging a cold trough of low pressure back into central California for the possibility of rain.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. there is a minimal risk of lower 30s in isolated river bottom or other low lying regions Thursday and Friday mornings if skies clear for an extended period of time. Even under ideal conditions, most locations will remain in the mid to upper 30s to possibly even lower 40s where cloud cover is dominant.
Above freezing conditions will prevail Saturday and beyond.
Next report: March 25/morning