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Forecast

September 10, 2020/report

September 10, 2020

Summary:  The biggest challenge in the forecast is the amount of smoke which is inhibiting solar radiation, thus lowering temperatures just a tad during the heat of the day.  It’s also keeping temperatures up just a bit during the overnight hours.  Generally speaking, mid 90s can be expected at most locations over the next couple of days, but again that could be slightly off.

 

In the big picture, a vigorous upper low is centered over Colorado this morning and is shifting northeast while a weak ridge of upper level high pressure is over California.  The winds aloft will be out of the northwest for one more day, so even though the marine layer is almost 2,000 feet thick, the weak off shore flow will keep any marine air out of the valley for the time being.

 

Weak  high pressure will remain along the coast and over California through Sunday.  Models diverge on a particular pattern for next week.  One  model shows a rather vigorous upper low off the northern California coast by Tuesday night, drifting over southern California during the middle and latter part of next week.  Others continue to show weak high pressure over the region.  One even suggests a chance of light showers next Wednesday through Friday, but others show a dry forecast.  For now, we’ll go with a dry forecast with the possibility of cooler temperatures later next week.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear through Sunday. Mostly clear Monday through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 92/56/92/59/95 Reedley 93/57/93/60/94 Dinuba 92/57/92/59/94
Porterville 93/57/93/59/95 Lindsay 93/56/93/58/94 Delano 94/60/94/62/95
Bakersfield 95/66/95/67/96 Taft 94/70/94/71/95 Arvin 95/62/95/66/96
Lamont 94/62/94/65/95 Pixley 93/57/93/59/94 Tulare 93/57/93/59/94
Woodlake 93/56/93/59/94 Hanford 93/58/93/60/95 Orosi 92/56/92/59/94

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

58/96

Monday

Mostly clear

57/93

Tuesday

Mostly clear

57/92

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

58/89

Thursday

Partly cloudy

57/87

 

Two Week Outlook:  September 17 through September 23:  This model indicates an amplified pattern with a big high over the western U.S. and a cool trough of low pressure east of the Rockies.  This regime will keep temperatures above average with dry conditions.

 

September:  This model is indicating basically the western half of the United States will have above average temperatures, continuing the trend of the summer season into the early fall.  This model shows near average precipitation, which is minimal at best anyway.

 

September, October, November:  This model always indicates above average temperatures for the western U.S. and this time around is no exception.  As we head into the autumn season this model is indicating there will be equal chances of above or below precipitation.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds through Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and 3 to 6 MPH nights and early mornings with periods of near calm conditions.

  

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 30s.

Actual Humidity Range September 9, 2020: Delano, 92%/16%, Porterville, 91%/24%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.60, Parlier 1.29, Blackwell Corner 1.53, Arvin 1.74, Orange Cove 1.33, Porterville 1.31, Delano 1.41. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 80, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 81, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 77, Delano 76

Record Temperatures: 108/48. Average Temperatures: 93/60

Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1885 +458

Courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for September So Far: 81.9 +6.1

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno/average + or -.  7.63 or -3.72.  Month to Date: .T -.02

Since Oct 1, 2019,  Fresno, 7.63 -3.69. 7.20, or +.84.  Bakersfield, 7.20 +.80. Month to Date: .T -.01

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:38   Sunset: 7:11 pm   Hours of Daylight:  12:35

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  93 /  58 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  93 /  55 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  91 /  72 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  95 /  63 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  94 /  60 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  98 /  77 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  93 /  65 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /  72 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  94 /  64 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  89 /  65 / 0.00 /

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.35    61   18.37   133    13.80    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    6.94    54   13.35   104    12.88    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    9.54    78   13.27   108    12.26    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    6.02    51   11.42    97    11.81    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    7.63    67   11.85   104    11.35    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    6.62    67    9.50    95     9.95    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.20   113    7.82   122     6.40     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    2.25    45    8.48   169     5.01     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    9.18    72   13.80   109    12.67    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   11.47    91   14.88   118    12.57    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   10.66    77   15.68   113    13.83    13.95

 

Next report: September 11/morning