Summary: A zone of upper level high pressure extends from off shore California into the interior western U.S. The freezing level this morning above Vandenburg AFB was 13,100 feet, indicating a warm bubble of subsiding air remains above California. As of 1:00 this afternoon, most locations were again at about the 80 degree mark. Well above average temperatures will continue through Thursday.
By Thursday evening, a strong low pressure system will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Some models are showing different outcomes as compared to past model runs. Instead of showing the parent low diving into Nevada, the low is shown moving right over northern California Friday night. the GFS model places the center of circulation right near Yosemite Saturday morning. This would definitely increase the chance of showers, even over the valley floor, late Friday night and at times through Sunday. Models show the backside of the low now over California as late as Monday.
All of this would definitely mean milder temperatures Sunday through Tuesday mornings. Considering the differences in models, not only from model to model, but from model run to model run, much will have to be nailed down over the coming days. I do feel more comfortable now in increasing the chance of light showers in the forecast beginning late Friday night with even a chance at times through Sunday evening.
Medium range models are also more encouraging as they show another possible shot at precipitation around Wednesday or Thursday of next week. The newest two week model is also showing an active pattern for California, so perhaps some prayers are in order to begin to tug these storms inland.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday night. increasing cloudiness, breezy and much cooler Friday. Mostly cloudy Friday night through Sunday evening with a chance of light showers after midnight Friday night through Sunday night. partly cloudy and cool Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 43/78/43/77 | Reedley 43/79/42/78 | Dinuba 42/77/42/76 | |
| Porterville 43/79/43/78 | Lindsay 42/78/42/77 | Delano 44/79/43/78 | |
| Bakersfield 53/79/53/78 | Taft 57/79/55/78 | Arvin 47/79/46/78 | |
| Lamont 47/78/47/78 | Pixley 43/79/43/78 | Tulare 42/77/42/76 | |
| Woodlake 42/78/42/77 | Hanford 44/79/44/78 | Orosi 42/77/42/77 | |
Winds: Winds during the afternoons through Thursday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Friday, especially during the afternoon and evening, will increase out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts, especially along the west side.
Rain: There are models this afternoon that point to a higher possibility of measurable rain on the valley floor beginning after midnight Friday night. these models are showing the low we’ve been discussing dropping further west right into northern California Friday evening. Some models show the storm centering right near Yosemite Saturday morning, meaning the strongest dynamics would not go into Nevada, but into northern and central California. Still, models indicate this is a drier event than we would like, but the chance of showers is certainly better than I believed even as late as this morning. also, additional impulses are projected to move through the low Saturday night through Sunday night, keeping that chance of light showers alive with light snow along the Sierra Nevada possibly as low as 3,500-4,000 feet. Dry weather will return Monday through Wednesday. some models are suggesting another chance of rain about Wednesday or Thursday of next week. The two week model going out through mid-November is now showing an active pattern for California, so we’ll see.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing through Sunday morning. Some models this afternoon definitely are showing milder temperatures for Sunday and Monday mornings. Unlike previous model runs, the main parent low is now shown moving right over central and northern California Saturday. with further impulses moving through the area of low pressure Saturday night through Monday morning, the chance of rain will be increased but it would also allow for a considerable amount of cloud cover over the valley. Theoretically, this would keep temperatures above freezing. I must emphasize, however, that if projections revert back to what they have been, the below freezing possibility would return.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
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Porterville
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Ivanhoe
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Woodlake
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| Strathmore
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Mcfarland
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Ducor
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Tea Pot Dome
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| Lindsay
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Exeter
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Famoso
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Madera
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| Belridge
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Delano
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North Bakersfield
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Orosi
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| Orange Cove
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Lindcove
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Lindcove Hillside
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Sanger River Bottom
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| Root Creek
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Venice Hill
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Rosedale
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Jasmine
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| Arvin
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Lamont
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Plainview
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Mettler
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| Edison
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Maricopa
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Holland Creek
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Tivy Valley
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| Kite Road South
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Kite Road North
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AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 4/morning