November 8, 2020
Summary: Quite an active afternoon in the valley. As scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving from northwest to southeast across the valley, a few locations in Fresno and Tulare Counties were nailed by some brief heavy rain and pea sized hail. Showers will continue into the evening then will taper off.
The center of the very cold low is in southern Nevada this afternoon and it will quickly move into the Desert Southwest by Monday morning. skies will begin to clear later tonight. However, with a rather robust north/northwest flow behind the low, upslope clouds will bank up against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada, especially in Tulare County.
Cold overnight low temperatures will be the main challenge over the next couple of mornings as a cold air mass settles in. the pattern from Monday through Wednesday is a broad area of low pressure over the interior west with the eastern Pacific high remaining several hundred miles off shore. Some models are indicating a very active weather pattern will set up for Oregon/northern California Friday and Saturday as a milder Pacific storm moves in from the west/northwest.
So far models are showing the rain line remaining just north of the central valley, however leaving room for error and the fact we’re still 5 to 6 days out means I feel at least a slight chances of light showers should be mentioned in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. models are also indicating an active pattern will exist next week, so hopefully precipitation has returned to central California and a favorable pattern will be with us for the next few weeks.
Forecast: Showers and isolated thunderstorms, tapering off this evening. Skies will begin to clear north of Kern and Tulare Counties later tonight but will remain mostly to partly cloudy in southeastern Tulare County and Kern County. Mostly clear Monday through Wednesday night. partly cloudy Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night leading to a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County northward Friday through Saturday. Partly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 29/54/28/58 | Reedley 29/55/28/57 | Dinuba 29/54/28/56 | |
| Porterville 32/54/29/58 | Lindsay 31/54/28/57 | Delano 33/55/30/58 | |
| Bakersfield 39/53/35/57 | Taft 36/53/38/56 | Arvin 39/54/31/58 | |
| Lamont 36/54/32/58 | Pixley 30/55/29/57 | Tulare 29/54/28/58 | |
| Woodlake 29/54/28/58 | Hanford 30/54/30/58 | Orosi 28/54/28/58 | |
Winds: Winds through early this evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts near showers and thunderstorms. Winds after midnight will be light and variable with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Monday through Wednesday will be generally less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the afternoons and at or less than 5 MPH during the night and morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring as of the time of this writing. They will continue through the evening hours, tapering off with dry weather later tonight. dry weather will continue Monday through Thursday. Models still show moisture moving into Oregon and northern California Friday through Saturday from a lower latitude Pacific storm. For now, models are showing the rain line remaining just north of Fresno County, but it’s a close enough call to add a chance of showers to the forecast for Friday through Saturday, mainly from Fresno County north. Medium range models for next week are also pointing towards an active pattern for northern and central California.
Frost: Dew points from Fresno County south are continuing in the mid to upper 30s, but have fallen into the upper 20s to the lower 30s from Merced County north. Gusty northwesterly winds continue to push down the valley, lowering dew points as we go into the overnight hours. It will be quite a tricky call tonight as it usually is on the first night of a freeze event. A strong north/northwest flow aloft will continue to regenerate upslope clouds against the Tehachapi Mountains and, to a lesser extent, the southern Sierra Nevada, especially in Tulare County. There’s a reasonably good chance of cloud cover remaining over Kern County and portions of Tulare County overnight. Should this occur, temperatures in those regions will remain in the 30s. in Fresno, Kings, and Madera Counties the risk of below freezing temps will be greater due to clearing skies. However, the atmosphere will be chaotic tonight, especially during the first half of the night. also, many locations have received a good soaking. A wet ground is always a plus during frost events. Even so, this is a very cold air mass, especially for this early in the season.
Unprotected river bottom and similar locations have the potential to dip down to 27 to 28 degrees Monday and Tuesday mornings with a few degrees of moderation Wednesday. most flatland locations tonight will range from 29 to 32 degrees with low to mid 30s expected on hillside locations. The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 2 to 4 degrees warmer, especially as sunrise nears.
On Tuesday morning, below freezing temperatures will be more widespread due to mostly clear skies and a much more stable environment. For Thursday and beyond, expect above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
33 |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root creek
28 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 9/morning