December 6, 2020
A low center is developing over southeast Oregon and will dive into Nevada this afternoon. Models track the low directly across central California tonight and Monday morning on a journey to its position off the northern Baja coastline Tuesday morning. as this system moves over the Sierra Nevada late tonight and Monday, a considerable amount of wind energy will affect the higher elevations, possibly resulting in a Mono wind event.
As the low tracks towards the southwest, the winds will move southward as well with strong gusty, easterly winds over the Kern County mountains later Monday into Tuesday. There’s a slight chance of these winds reaching the extreme southeastern portion of the valley, although the exact configuration is not quite as favorable for strong winds as last week’s wind event in Kern County. We may see enough cloud cover and mixing tonight to keep lows a tad milder. That will a bit more clear in the afternoon report.
By Thursday, a weak trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern California will kick the Baja system eastward. A cooler air mass will overspread central California late Thursday and Friday, lowering daytime highs closer to seasonal averages. Even though the flow aloft will be out of the north/northwest, dew points will probably be low enough to continue this endless series of frosty nights for the remainder of the upcoming week.
Forecast: Mostly clear with occasional high clouds today. Variable cloudiness at times tonight through Monday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/30/62/29/63 | Reedley 63/30/62/28/64 | Dinuba 62/29/61/28/63 |
| Porterville 64/30/62/29/65 | Lindsay 63/29/62/28/64 | Delano 64/31/62/29/65 |
| Bakersfield 64/38/61/37/65 | Taft 63/44/61/45/64 | Arvin 63/35/61/33/65 |
| Lamont 63/34/62/33/64 | Pixley 64/30/62/28/65 | Tulare 62/29/61/28/63 |
| Woodlake 63/30/62/28/63 | Hanford 64/31/62/29/65 | Orosi 63/29/62/28/63 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 30/61 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 30/59 |
Friday
Mostly clear 29/58 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 28/59 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 30/60 |
Two Week Outlook: December 13 through December 19: This model has reverted back to showing strong upper level high pressure over much of the western U.S. The chance of rain appears very low during this time frame with above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Wednesday during the late morning and afternoon hours will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature. During the night and early morning hours, winds will generally be at or less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. I still want to keep at least a small chance of Santa Ana winds blowing downslope off the extreme southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains in the forecast for late Monday into Tuesday. If these winds develop, gusts in excess of 40 MPH would be possible. The configuration this time around is not quite as favorable for these winds developing as they were for last week’s event, but I still want to keep this in the forecast.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: In and out cloud cover last night nudged temperatures up a bit milder than what we’ve become accustomed to of late with most locations in the lower 30s. The coldest as of 6:30 this morning was Reedley at 28 followed by Exeter and Lindcove at 29.
After midnight tonight, an upper low which will slide into Nevada this afternoon will move southwestward virtually right overhead. It’s possible we may see enough cloud cover during the early morning hours to be of some help. Also, a strong off shore flow off the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains may add enough mixing to hold temperatures up, as well. If these factors do end up working in our favor, expect mostly low to mid 30s tonight. if not, coldest unprotected frost pockets will drop down to 27 to 28 with most flatland locations ranging from 29 to 32.
For Tuesday morning, a strong easterly flow will be evident above the valley floor. We may see some cloud cover on Tuesday, as well, from the same low which by that time will be off the extreme northern Baja coastline. However, on the flip side, drier air may once again mix down to the valley floor, setting the stage for subfreezing temperatures Wednesday through the weekend. The flow aloft from Thursday through Saturday will be out of the north/northwest, which is an onshore flow. Theoretically, this would nudge dew points up.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for December 5, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for the growing area is.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 65%/16% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .53, Parlier .49, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .70, Orange Cove .53, Porterville .NA, Delano .50. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 50, Blackwell 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 51, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 70/28. Average Temperatures: 57/36
Heating Degree Days This Season: 487, -104
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.6 +3.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.63, Month to Date: .00, -.21
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.68. Month to date .00, -.13
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 249, Parlier, 313, Arvin, 230, Shafter, 260, Stratford, 287, Delano, 298, Lindcove, 270, Porterville, 346
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:59 am Sunset: 4:42 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:45
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 67 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 69 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1500 / 69 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 70 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 70 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 73 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 3 3.27 116 2.82 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 4 2.47 107 2.31 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 51 4.28 201 2.13 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 7 1.61 74 2.19 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 15 1.82 95 1.91 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 8 1.36 84 1.61 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 36 1.27 119 1.07 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 1.04 114 0.91 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 16 3.22 143 2.25 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 15 3.62 193 1.88 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 11 2.32 106 2.19 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 6/pm