February 1, 2021
Summary: The southern branch of the jet stream responsible for the heavy cloud cover earlier today has sagged southward into southern California and northern Baja. This is allowing for mostly clear skies throughout the valley this afternoon. A southerly flow moving up the valley, combined with downslope winds off the Tehachapi Mountains, has driven temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon. Currently, winds at the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine are sustained at 17 MPH, gusting to 35 out of the south. Earlier today a brief gust to65 MPH was recorded, however that was the only location that I could find experiencing strong winds.
A trough of low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California will unfortunately split with the main chunk of energy moving through the Pacific Northwest while the other portion moves southward too far off shore to be of any benefit. The only chance I see for light showers in the valley will be later Tuesday night and Wednesday, mainly along a weak cold front. It now appears Kern County will remain dry and even as far as Madera and Fresno Counties, only a tenth or two can be expected, if that.
In the meantime, well behind this system, out over the central Pacific, a massive ridge of upper level high pressure will be approaching the coast of North America, possibly reaching as far north as the Arctic Circle above Alaska. By Friday and Saturday, the western 1/3 of the U.S will be on the eastern flank of the high, putting us under a northwest flow aloft. A surge of arctic air will plunge into the Midwestern U.S. this coming weekend, putting them in the deep freeze. However, as the high continues to strengthen above California, readings will warm above average from Saturdayu and beyond with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight. increasing cloudiness later Tuesday. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday with a chance of light showers north of Kern County. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 40/64/43/56 | Reedley 41/65/43/57 | Dinuba 40/64/43/56 | |
| Porterville 40/66/43/57 | Lindsay 40/64/43/57 | Delano 43/66/44/57 | |
| Bakersfield 47/68/48/55 | Taft 50/65/52/56 | Arvin 43/68/46/56 | |
| Lamont 43/67/47/56 | Pixley 42/66/43/57 | Tulare 41/64/43/55 | |
| Woodlake 41/64/53/56 | Hanford 43/65/44/57 | Orosi 40/64/43/56 | |
Winds: Winds tonight and Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Localized winds of 35 MPH are possible near the base of the Kern County mountains tonight and Tuesday morning. Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Wednesday night. Winds Thursday will be light and variable.
Rain: We’ll go ahead and call it 50/50 for measurable rain over Fresno and Madera Counties Tuesday night and Wednesday, sloping to unlikely over the valley portion of Kern County. It appears no more than a tenth or two is likely from Fresno County north with less than .10 if any at all in Kings and Tulare Counties. Dry weather will return Wednesday night and continue for at least the next seven days if not longer.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing through Wednesday morning. the air mass behind a weakening cold front which will move through late Tuesday through Wednesday. The air mass following the front is what I would call atypical for early February. It’s possible a few low lying river bottom and similar low spots could dip down to 29 to 31 with most locations ranging in the 30s. By the time we reach Sunday and beyond, the high will strengthen. Even though we’re at the tail end of the fog season, areas of low clouds and fog will be possible each morning with above freezing conditions beginning Sunday and thereafter. Currently there’s nothing on longer range models suggesting a menacing pattern on the horizon.
Next update: February 2/am