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Forecast

March 16, 2021/update

John Hibler

 March 16, 2021

A northwesterly flow aloft continues to develop upslope clouds against the Sierra Nevada foothills.  These clouds are arching out over the eastern half of the San Joaquin Valley.  Drier air embedded within this flow will begin to cause the clouds to dissipate overnight, although some cloudiness may last into Wednesday morning.  Currently, the base of the cloud deck over Bakersfield is 4,500 feet and over Porterville and Visalia the base is at 4,400 feet.  Even though it’s a very cool afternoon by mid March standards with readings mostly in the mid 50s, it’s still anywhere from 4 to 7 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.  From 4,000 feet and above in the mountain areas, temperatures are generally 10 degrees warmer.

 

A weak ridge of upper level high pressure continues to build in from the west and will do so through Wednesday night.  in the meantime, a developing low in the Gulf of Alaska will drop southward, centering off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Thursday.  This system will drop a weak trough of low pressure into northern and central California Thursday night and Friday.  A surface cold front will move through late Thursday night and Friday morning.  there will be a chance of light showers Thursday night and Friday morning, especially from Fresno County north.  Behind this system will be a weak trough of low pressure which will remain over California through the weekend.  However, the only chance of precipitation will be over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

 

A ridge of high pressure will build in from the west beginning Monday and will dominate our pattern through at least Thursday of next week.

 

Forecast:  Partly cloudy this evening.  Gradually clearing overnight.  Mostly clear Wednesday and Wednesday night.  increasing cloudiness Thursday leading to a chance of scattered light showers Thursday night and Friday morning, mainly from Fresno County north.  Mostly cloudy in Kern County and eastern Tulare County Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.  partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday.  Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 33/66//42/68 Reedley 32/67/41/68 Dinuba 32/65/41/69
Porterville 32/67/41/70 Lindsay 31/65/40/70 Delano 33/66/41/71
Bakersfield 39/68/48/72 Taft 43/65/51/71 Arvin 37/68/43/72
Lamont 36/68/43/72 Pixley 33/66/42/71 Tulare 32/65/42/70
Woodlake 32/67/41/70 Hanford 33/66/43/71 Orosi 32/65/41/71

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally at or less than  12 MPH and variable in nature.  Winds during the night and  morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.  Winds late Thursday night and Friday will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.

 

Rain Discussion:  There will be a small chance of light showers Thursday night and Friday morning, mainly from Fresno County north.  If precipitation occurs at all, less than .10 is all that’s anticipated.  Dry weather will prevail Friday night and more than likely for the next week or so thereafter.

 

Frost Discussion: Temperatures this afternoon are running 4 to 7 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.  Even so, it’s rather chilly by mid March standards, with readings mainly in the mid 50s.  Dew points at most locations are generally in the mid to upper 30s.  a northwesterly flow aloft is causing upslope clouds to develop against the southern Sierra Nevada foothills.  These clouds are arching out over the east side of the valley.  As progressively drier air moves in under rising pressures aloft, most of this cloud cover will dissipate during the night, although some cloud cover may hang in there through Wednesday morning.

 

Expect widespread low to mid 30s tonight with a small chance of short durations of upper 20s in isolated cold spots out there.  The atmosphere will begin to modify quickly beginning Wednesday, so this will be the last day of possible frost we will see, hopefully for quite some time.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

 Porterville

33

 Ivanhoe

31

 Woodlake

32
Strathmore

33

 mcFarland

33

 Ducor

Af

 Tea Pot Dome

32
Lindsay

31

 Exeter

32

 Famoso

Af

 Madera

33
Belridge

31

 Delano

33

 North Bakersfield

Af

 Orosi

32
Orange Cove

32

 Lindcove

31

 Lindcove Hillside Sanger River Bottom

29
Root Creek

31

 Venice Hill

32

 Rosedale

Af

 Jasmine

Af
Arvin

Af

 Lamont

Af

 Plainview

32

 Mettler

Af
Edison

Af

 Maricopa

Af

 Holland Creek

Af

 Tivy Valley

32
Kite Road South

Af

 Kite Road North

32

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: March 17/am