June 3, 2021
The center of circulation of strong upper level high pressure is directly above central California, for the second day in a row. Yesterday, Taft hit 107 followed by 106 at Bakersfield and Lemoore for the hottest readings in the valley. The air aloft remains midsummerlike with the freezing level at 16,200 feet. This time of year, I always monitor the marine layer. The sounding at Fort Ord put the depth of the marine layer at 1,600 feet. There is enough difference in pressure between the coast and the interior for a very shallow intrusion of marine air into the Delta and possibly into western Merced County below Pacheco Pass. Yesterday, Los Banos hit a cool high of 99 courtesy of the marine influence. Currently, the winds at Pacheco Pass are west at 17 while at Travis AFB, winds are out of the southwest at 17 MPH, gusting to 23, which is not impressive at all. Therefore, temperatures in the 102 to 107 degree range can be anticipated again today.
The high will begin to break down over the Pacific Northwest Friday, but it will be a slow process. By early next week, that trough will be sagging into southern California, ,finally pushing the high far enough south for a more significant cooling trend. On Sunday, a much stronger push of modified sea breeze will move down the valley with temperatures returning to near seasonal levels by Tuesday.
The pattern for later next week is rather undecided on models. Yesterday, a fairly strong trough of low pressure was depicted along the west coast. This morning, some models are showing a large high over the western states with a return to above average temps. Also, models are hinting at the beginning of the first monsoonal flow around the 13th. Theoretically, this would move moisture into New Mexico and eastern Arizona. It will be interesting to see how that pans out.
Models for late next week through the following weekend are indicating a stronger trough of low pressure will move through the western US, possibly lowering temperatures below average.
Forecast: Mostly clear and hot through Saturday. Mostly clear Saturday night through Wednesday with a slow cooling trend. Mostly clear Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 103/64/102/63/99 | Reedley 105/65/103/62/100 | Dinuba 104/63/103/62/99 |
| Porterville 105/65/104/63/100 | Lindsay 104/63/103/63/100 | Delano 106/66/104/64/101 |
| Bakersfield 106/75/104/73/101 | Taft 106/77/104/75/101 | Arvin 106/69/104/68/101 |
| Lamont 106/70/104/68/100 | Pixley 105/65/104/63/100 | Tulare 104/63/103/62/99 |
| Woodlake 104/63/103/62/99 | Hanford 106/65/104/64/100 | Orosi 103/63/102/62/99 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 61/99 |
Monday
Mostly clear 58/96 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 54/90 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 53/89 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 52/89 |
Two Week Outlook: June 10 through June 16: This model indicates a ridge of high pressure will be over the western states with a trough just off shore, resulting in near to marginally above average temperatures with dry conditions. This model is also hinting at the beginning of the monsoon season with a southerly flow moving into the Desert Southwest.
June: This model is indicating a ridge of upper level high pressure will be more dominant over the Desert Southwest and, to a lesser extent, California, resulting in above average temperatures for the month with the usual dry conditions prevailing.
June, July, August: This model mimics the pattern of recent years, indicating high pressure over the Desert Southwest being the most dominant feature, resulting in above average temperatures. Theoretically, this pattern blocks monsoonal moisture from moving northward. Typically, there’s little to no precipitation anyway, and that will be the case this summer.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds during the night and morning hours will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, through Sunday.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA%/NA% Porterville, 68%/15%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford 2.11, Parlier 1.96, Arvin 2.11, Orange Cove 2.15, Porterville 1.96, Delano NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 74, Parlier 80, Arvin, 78, Orange Cove 80, Porterville NA, Delano 79.
Record Temperatures: 107/44. Average Temperatures: 88/58
Cooling Degree Days This Season:. 278 +55 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 84.5 +11.5 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 6.59 or -4.11 or 62% of average. Month to Date: .00 or -03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 2.77, +or- -3.50 or 44% of average. Month to date .00 or -.01
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Belridge, Shafter, Stratford, Delano, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 5:41 am Sunset: 8:14 Hours of Daylight: 14:33
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 100 / 63 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 102 / 62 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 104 / 72 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 105 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 106 / 60 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 106 / 76 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DHM / 103 / 65 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / 105 / 67 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 107 / 70 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 98 / 65 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 7.88 59 8.35 63 13.28 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 7.12 59 6.88 57 12.07 12.27
MERCED 0.00 7.00 60 0.00 0 11.65 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 10.62 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 6.59 62 0.00 0 10.70 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.29 54 0.00 0 8.01 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.77 44 0.00 0 6.27 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 1.62 37 2.25 52 4.36 4.84
SALINAS T 5.75 46 9.16 74 12.43 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 6.74 56 11.37 95 11.97 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.87 52 10.53 80 13.16 13.32
Next report: June 4/am