Most locations yesterday saw a bit of hazy afternoon sunshine, but not all. Where it cleared, dense fog reformed overnight. In fact, every location from Bakersfield to Sacramento is reporting a visibility of ¼ mile or less, so it’s one of those days. The valley is simply capped by upper level high pressure aided by surface high pressure centered over Utah. A moderate Santa Ana wind configuration is in place. We can illustrate that by showing the current altimeter reading at Salt Lake City is 30.45 inches of mercury while at LAX, the reading is 30.06. that’s enough of a difference to crank of Santa Ana winds. These winds blow over the top of the valley, leaving a moist layer of air on the valley floor. We will have a better chance of clearing beginning Wednesday as a weak trough of low pressure moves through, just in time for holiday travels.
There’s a weak low center off the California coast which will move through northern Baja, as well. It’s a dry system, but the air behind the trough is marginally colder so, assuming this system is strong enough to mix out the fog and low clouds, overnight low temperatures will have a chance to drop into the low to mid 30s as early as Wednesday morning with a greater risk Thursday and Friday. It’s also possible, though, that the fog will re-form quickly, bringing us back to square one.
Beginning Thursday, a high center off the central coast will ridge into the Pacific Northwest, generating another off shore flow. The high will be persistent and will dominate our weather for the remainder of the month.
Models are showing a change for the first week in December. In fact, the two week model is hinting at a much greater chance of precipitation as the high moves off shore.
Forecast: Widespread fog and low clouds this morning, lifting into a low overcast by late morning with a chance of clearing in some areas during the afternoon. Low overcast and fog tonight and Tuesday morning. Clearing Tuesday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. For Wednesday night through Monday, expect widespread night and morning fog and low clouds with clearing during the afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/40/65/35/61 | Reedley 63/41/65/36/60 | Dinuba 62/40/65/34/61 |
| Porterville 66/40/65/35/61 | Lindsay 65/39/65/35/60 | Delano 61/41/65/37/61 |
| Bakersfield 65/47/66/43/61 | Taft 68/52/67/43/61 | Arvin 68/44/66/38/62 |
| Lamont 67/43/66/38/63 | Pixley 62/40/65/37/60 | Tulare 61/39/65/34/60 |
| Woodlake 62/40/65/35/61 | Hanford 63/41/65/37/61 | Orosi 63/40/64/34/60 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thanksgiving
AM fog/PM sun 34/62 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 35/64 |
Saturday
AM fog/PM sun 37/65 |
Sunday
AM fog/PM sun 39/67 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 41/68 |
Two Week Outlook: November 29 through December 5: More and more, the two week model is indicating the storm track will move southward into California. The chance of rain during this period now appears pretty high with above average temperatures.
November: This model indicates November has roughly a 60% chance of above average precipitation with above average temperatures being the dominant theme. If this occurs, it will have to be during the second half of the month as current models show dry conditions through mid November.
November, December, January: Well, at least this model doesn’t show the continuance of the blocking ridge of high pressure of recent winters. It indicates an equal chance of below or above average precipitation for central California. Temperatures will remain somewhat above seasonal average.
Wind Discussion: Winds tonight through Thanksgiving will be generally variable at no more than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather to continue for the remainder of the month. More and more, models are indicating the storm track will move southward into California the first week in December. It’s much too early to try to discern timing, but at least the needle is pointing in the right direction.
Frost: A weak trough of low pressure will move through Tuesday and Tuesday night. The air mass behind the trough is marginally colder. Assuming enough mixing takes place to lift the clouds and fog out of the valley, there is a reasonably good chance of low to mid 30s Wednesday through Friday mornings. If the inversion does not break up, it will be the status quo. Low to mid 30s would be a huge benefit in cranking up some chilling hours.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/82% Porterville, 100%/67%. Dew points: Upper Low Mid to upper 40s Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 20%/. Tomorrow, 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:. Stratford .30, Parlier .22, Arvin .34, Orange Cove .27, Porterville .30, Delano .22. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 61, Parlier 60, Arvin, .60, Orange Cove 61, Porterville 59, Delano 54. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 63/41. Record Temperatures: 77/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 272 -29. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .1.57 or +.44. Monthly .30. -.27
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .95 or +34. Month to date .01 -.32
Average Temperature this month: 57.2, +2.4. Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 12 , Parlier, 34 , Arvin, 27, Belridge, 27 ,Shafter, 18 , Stratford, 49 , Delano, 26 , Porterville, 40`
Sunrise. 6:45 Sunset, 4:45 hours of daylight, 10;01
NA=missing
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 67 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 67 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 65 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 60 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 64 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 65 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr season % L.Y. % Ave. Annual total ave
STOCKTON 0.00 4.32 273 0.09 6 1.58 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 3.06 253 0.10 8 1.21 12.27
MERCED 0.00 2.00 150 1.08 81 1.33 11.80
MADERA 0.00 0.65 63 0.16 16 1.03 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 1.57 139 0.28 25 1.13 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 1.24 143 0.13 15 0.87 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.95 156 0.39 64 0.61 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.78 142 T 0 0.55 4.84
SALINAS T 2.19 159 0.37 27 1.38 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.40 110 0.25 20 1.27 13.32
Next report: November 23