December 11, 2021pm
Other than some high, thin clouds, we are enjoying a mostly sunny afternoon. A weak ridge of high pressure currently covers the eastern Pacific off the California coast, stretching inland to the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. We are now monitoring the progress of an intensifying storm moving out of the Gulf of Alaska which will drop south/southeast into California Sunday night from at least Fresno County north and over the remainder of the valley Monday. This system has a nice trail of moisture from well out over the Pacific Ocean. The main dynamics will sag southward into central California Monday. Precipitation estimates by some of these high resolution forecast models continue to be most impressive, both for the valley floor but also for the Sierra Nevada. If these models have it correct, anywhere from .75 to 1.50 could be picked up north of Kern County. Along the Sierra Nevada foothills from Tulare County north, 3 to 5 inches of rain can be expected Sunday night through Tuesday night with 4 to 6 feet of new snow at the 8,000 foot elevation with locally more.
Again, this will be a slow moving storm, which is one of the reasons precipitation totals will be so high. We will receive a brief break from the rain Wednesday and Wednesday night before the next Pacific storm rolls out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California Thursday. even though this system will be weaker than its predecessor, it will still have some pretty generous rainfall amounts with possibly .50 of an inch on the valley floor.
A ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west Friday. The air mass behind the second system will be cold, so it’s possible we could see some frost nights by next weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. A chance of rain Sunday night, mainly from Fresno County north. Rain likely Monday through Tuesday. Showers Tuesday night. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness again Wednesday night with showers likely Thursday. mostly to partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday morning. Becoming mostly clear Friday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 31/56/46/56 | Reedley 31/56/44/55 | Dinuba 29/55/44/55 |
| Porterville 30/57/46/55 | Lindsay 29/57/44/56 | Delano 31/57/45/57 |
| Bakersfield 38/57/46/59 | Taft 45/57/45/59 | Arvin 34/59/44/60 |
| Lamont 34/58/46/59 | Pixley 30/58/45/59 | Tulare 29/56/45/55 |
| Woodlake 30/57/43/57 | Hanford 31/57/45/55 | Orosi 29/57/45/56 |
Wind: Winds will be generally at or less than 5 mph tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Sunday through Sunday evening will be mainly at or less than 10 mph and mainly out of the southeast. Winds Sunday night through Monday night will be mainly out of the southeast at 15 to 25 mph. Winds Tuesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Rain: The chance of rain will begin to increase from Fresno County north Sunday night. It will then spread slowly southward Monday. Precipitation will continue at times through Tuesday night. By Wednesday we can put this in the history books.
Precipitation amounts continue to be most impressive on model information. From Sunday night through Tuesday night, areas north of Kern County are estimated to range from .75 to upwards of 1.50 inches of rain. Expect .33 to .75 along the west side with about .50 and possibly more over the valley portion of Kern County. This system will finally slide into the Great Basin Wednesday, giving us a slot. Rain will again spread down the valley Thursday. it’s really too far out to outguess modeling information, but model suites are showing what would be seen as an average winter storm. By Friday afternoon, this precipitation siege will come to an end as upper level high pressure noses in from the west.
Frost: Lows tonight will be similar to last night unless the cloud shield entering California moves over the growing area during the early morning hours. Lows this morning were generally in the lower 30s with a few upper 20s. If skies do remain generally clear, temperatures could actually be a degree or two colder as there’s virtually no wind. Lows Monday morning through Thursday morning will be above Thursday due to a powerful winter storm affecting the region.
I will be taking a closer look at the pattern for Friday through next weekend. The air mass that will slide in behind Thursday’s low pressure system is cold. Currently, it doesn’t look like a hard freeze event, but rather another round like our current one.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 12