December 18, 2021pm
Skies have cleared over much of Kern County and southern Tulare and Kings Counties. However, from northern Tulare and Kings Counties north to the Sacramento Valley, the low cloud deck continues to dominate. Upper level high pressure is already beginning to break down over the Pacific Northwest. High clouds are invading the northern 1/3 of California, precursors of things to come. As we head into Monday, the high will continue to break down, but in the meantime, where it clears this afternoon, the fog will have no problem reforming as ground fog. This is one of those nights where temperature forecasting is quite speculative as it completely depends on when the fog takes over at any specific location.
The high will completely give way late Monday night and Tuesday. Precipitation will spread over northern California Monday night and into central California Tuesday, primarily in the afternoon and north of Kern County. A cold low will drop southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and park off the northern California coast Tuesday. For now, it appears the center of circulation with this storm will be roughly 500 miles off shore. Models continue to place the low off the northern California coast al week long. In fact, it will be reinforced by another low, setting the stage for lots of weather ahead.
At this juncture, it’s impossible to determine how much rain will accumulate on the valley floor. Right now, I would guess one and a half to two inches is possible. Medium range models are adamant about the high possibility of unsettled weather from Christmas Day through New Year’s. models are showing a dry period beginning the first of the year and lasting a week or so.
Forecast: Areas of dense fog and/or low clouds with hazy afternoon sunshine through Monday.. increasing cloudiness Monday night. Mostly cloudy Tuesday through Christmas Day with period of rain at times.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/54/34/56 | Reedley 31/55/32/55 | Dinuba 31/53/32/55 |
| Porterville 31/57/32/56 | Lindsay 31/55/31/54 | Delano 33/53/34/56 |
| Bakersfield 36/57/37/57 | Taft 39/53/41/56 | Arvin 34/58/35/58 |
| Lamont 33/57/34/57 | Pixley 31/54/32/55 | Tulare 31/52/32/54 |
| Woodlake 31/53/32/54 | Hanford 33/54/34/55 | Orosi 31/54/32/55 |
Wind: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH tonight through Sunday and generally out of the southeast. Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Monday night. A prolonged period of on and off wet weather will begin Tuesday. Rain will spread down the valley Tuesday afternoon, mainly north of Kern County with periods of rain Tuesday night and through the Christmas weekend. In fact, active weather will continue from between Christmas to New Year’s. hopefully many locations on the valley will pick up between 1.50 to 2.50 Tuesday through Christmas Day and possibly even a third to a half inch over the valley potion of Kern County. These waves of low pressure will be moving in from the west, meaning the rain shadow will be our nemesis along the west side but mor especially in Kern County. In all likelihood, it will zap rainfall totals there.
Frost: Skies have cleared over mich of Kern County as well as southern Tulare and Kings Counties as of the time of this writing. This will allow for radiational cooling to take place. Dew points remain in the 40s this afternoon, so ground fog will have no problem forming in areas that have some sunshine. That will be the main challenge in temperature forecasting as locations that remain overcast will have above freezing temperatures and temperatures in most areas with it clears being in the low to mid 30s with only the coldest locations dipping int the 20s for short durations. Similar conditions are expected for Monday morning. For Tuesday and beyond, heavy cloud cover and periods of rain will maintain above freezing conditions. A west to east flow into central California will also keep temperatures above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Poto Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
33 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
33 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 19