December 25, 2021
Currently, it is quiet over central California this Christmas morning. However, just to our north, showers are beginning to increase. Rain has spread as far south as a Monterey/Merced line and will be sweeping into central California later this morning.
This next system is a strong one and will drop significant amounts of rain on the valley floor and heavy snow in the mountains. This storm’s origins are the northeastern Gulf of Alaska, so snow levels will drop to near 3000 feet and possibly as low as 2000 feet in heavier showers. This latest round of precipitation will bring rain to about 200% of average at many locations with a huge snow pack for this early in the season along the Sierra Nevada.
A cold trough of low pressure extends from Vancouver Island to just off the central coast. Again, the latest low will sweep inland out of the trough leading to an active Christmas Day. There will be a very short lull Sunday before the next, even colder, system arrives, sweeping into central California later Sunday through Monday. High temperatures for much of next week will only range in the mid to upper 40s.
Models for much of next week still show a broad expanse of low pressure along and over the western states. Waves of low pressure will move through central California from time to time next week, meaning there will be a chance of rain any given day.
Forecast: Periods of rain through Monday. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. A chance of showers Monday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 53/38/49/39/47 | Reedley 54/40/49/39/47 | Dinuba 53/38/48/40/47 |
| Porterville 54/38/48/39/48 | Lindsay 54/38/48/38/47 | Delano 54/40/49/38/47 |
| Bakersfield 55/41/47/41/47 | Taft 52/38/48/42/47 | Arvin 54/40/49/40/47 |
| Lamont 53/39/49/40/47 | Pixley 54/39/49/37/46 | Tulare 53/38/47/38/47 |
| Woodlake 53/38/47/39/47 | Hanford 54/40/49/38/48 | Orosi 53/38/48/38/38 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will remain mainly out of the southeast at around 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno County north, through Tuesday.
Rain: As of the time of this writing, the weather was quiet over central California. Showers will begin to spread in from the northwest later this morning. This afternoon through Monday will see active weather with periods of rain at times. Expect a good half inch or more in many locations throughout the valley between now and Monday afternoon. Blended model information indicates a good .65 will fall in many rain gauges from Sunday night through Tuesday morning.
There’s a chance of rain on any given day later next week, though it appears precipitation will not be as heavy as of late. The two week model out this morning indicates above average precipitation will fall through the first week of January with below average temperatures.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. The next series of storms are quite cold with snow levels down to 2,000 feet in the surrounding mountains. The weather will continue to be active through Monday, maintaining above average temperatures. For this upcoming week, in and out unsettled weather will continue. Any night from Wednesday on with clear skies during the overnight hours has the potential to drop into the upper 20s to low to mid 30s. However, with an extremely wet valley floor, temperatures will not drop to critically cold levels for the foreseeable future.
Next report: December 26