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Forecast

February 5, 2022/report

If you recall, December of last year saw precipitation at least twice the amount of average, and in some cases was more than twice. We all thought we were off to a stellar water year then came January with no rain. Now it appears the first half of February will also be dry. Welcome to California!

 

Currently, we have strong upper level high pressure anchored roughly 600 miles to the west of the Golden Gate. We also have an upper low roughly 450 miles to the southwest of San Diego. The strong high off shore covers the eastern pacific and the far western portion of the US, putting us in a north/northwest flow aloft. At the surface, pressure remains higher over the interior than off shore. The current altimeter reading at Boise, Idaho is 30.50 inches of mercury while at LAX, the reading is currently 30.21.

 

Over the next several days the high will build inland for a warming trend. By the middle of next week, the center of circulation of the high will be off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, creating a northeasterly flow. Downslope heating will occur, driving readings on the valley floor into the low to mid 70s, especially over the Kern County area.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday. Mostly clear skies will continue Tuesday night through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                     

Madera 64/34/67/37/71 Reedley 65/34/67/35/71 Dinuba 64/32/66/34/69
Porterville 66/33/66/34/70 Lindsay 66/31/69/34/71 Delano 66/35/69/35/71
Bakersfield 64/44/68/42/72 Taft 65/45/68/48/70 Arvin 66/36/70/37/72
Lamont 65/37/70/38/72 Pixley 64/35/67/37/71 Tulare 63/31/66/33/70
Woodlake 64/33/66/34/69 Hanford 64/34/67/35/69 Orosi 64/32/66/35/69

 

Seven Forecast

Tuesday

Mostly clear

35/71

Wednesday

Mostly clear

35/72

Thursday

Mostly clear

36/72

Friday

Mostly clear

36/73

Saturday

Mostly clear

37/73

                                                 

Two Week Outlook:  February 11 through February 17: this time around, this model is reverting back to the same old thing. A large ridge of upper level high pressure will cover the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the US, meaning the chance of rain will be very low with above average temperatures.

 

February:  The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.

 

February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 MPH through Tuesday with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Frost: Daytime highs will warm to the point where they will begin to drag up overnight lows as well. From this point on, only the coldest locations will reach the 32 mark or below. In fact, models for next week indicate highs will reach into the low to mid 70s, dragging up overnight lows into the mid to upper 30s despite the low dew point. From Monday on, very little change will occur night to night with low spots dipping into the lower 30s and most locations coming in between 33 and 38. There is still nothing on longer range projections that would suggest a significant change longer term.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

31

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

30

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

31

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

32

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

29

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamong

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

33

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 88%/24%  Porterville, 100%/37%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Upper 20s the lower 30s..  Kern: Mid to upper 20s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100%/. Tomorrow, 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .55, Parlier .50, Arvin 55, Orange Cove .45, Porterville .47, Delano .48. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 51, Parlier 49, Arvin, 50, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 48, Delano na. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 59/39.  Record Temperatures: 76/24

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1552 -106, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.21 or -.27.  Monthly  .00 -.07

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 3.56 or  +.40. Month to date  .00 -.16

Average Temperature this month: 45.4, -3.4 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 760, Parlier, 879,  Arvin, 712, Belridge, 812, Shafter, 787 Stratford, 892, Delano, 870, Porterville, 893.  courtesy UC Davis 

Sunrise. 6:57, Sunset, 5:29, hours of daylight, 10:31

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  65 /  35 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  67 /  33 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  68 /  39 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  66 /  33 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  69 /   M /     M /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :   M /   M /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  66 /  36 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  67 /  34 /  0.00 /

 

 

CLIMATE STATION            TOTAL    2022     PON  2021     PON  NORMAL   NORMAL

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.21   109    6.43    85     7.53    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    8.15   121    5.90    88     6.72    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    5.85    94    5.62    90     6.25    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M    1.05    19     5.53    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    5.21    92    4.82    85     5.65    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    4.61   110    3.03    72     4.18     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.56   110    1.72    53     3.24     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    4.50   174    1.30    50     2.58     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    6.11    88    4.47    64     6.96    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    7.34   113    5.93    91     6.49    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.26    92    5.90    87     6.82    13.32

Next report: February 5 PM