February 14, 2022
The beginning of a major cooling trend is underway even though readings in the south valley are only cooler by a degree or two.
The marine layer along the coast is rapidly deepening and is gushing through Pacheco Pass and through the Delta. As a result, Travis AFB is 16 degrees cooler than yesterday, Sacramento is 10 degrees lower and Stockton’s temperature is down by 7. That modified sea breeze will soon penetrate all the way down the valley. A compact low pressure system is now moving into northern California. Radar is showing very little precipitation anywhere rip north. By Tuesday morning, the center of circulation of this storm will be roughly over Merced County and over Kern County by nightfall. Even though this system is lacking moisture, the fact that it is tracking virtually overhead means we need to keep a small chance of light showers in the forecast for Tuesday, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. The main impact in all this will be drastically cooler temperatures as tomorrow’s highs will only warm into the mid to upper 50s. as soon as this air mass settles in, local areas of frost will definitely be on hand for Wednesday through Friday mornings. More on this below. A dome of upper level high pressure off shore will begin to push inland beginning Wednesday. It will dominate our pattern through the weekend. Models seem to be trending towards another low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska, affecting northern and central California late Sunday through Tuesday of next week. It also appears to lack moisture, but we may have a better shot at precipitation than we do from the current storm.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy today. Increasing cloudiness tonight with a slight chance of showers after midnight. Variable cloudiness Tuesday with a small chance of scattered light showers, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Clearing Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 42/57/34/62 | Reedley 44/57/35/61 | Dinuba 42/58/32/63 |
| Porterville 42/59/32/63 | Lindsay 42/58/31/63 | Delano 44/59/34/63 |
| Bakersfield 45/55/39/62 | Taft 47/55/40/59 | Arvin 44/59/35/60 |
| Lamont 45/59/34/61 | Pixley 43/58/32/62 | Tulare 41/57/31/61 |
| Woodlake 43/59/33/63 | Hanford 43/58/34/62 | Orosi 41/57/31/63 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally light and variable today, increasing out of the west/northwest this evening at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts as strong as 35 MPH possible with areas of blowing dust over freshly plowed fields. Winds will continue out of the northwest Tuesday at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Decreasing by early Tuesday evening. Becoming light after midnight Tuesday. Winds Wednesday and Thursday will be generally at or less than 8 mph and variable in nature with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the overnight hours.
Rain: Some models this afternoon track a compact, moisture starved low right overhead Tuesday. The center of circulation about sunrise will be near Merced County and over the Kern County mountains about sunset. Even though it has little moisture, there may be enough dynamics to squeeze sprinkles or scattered light showers during the day Tuesday. I must emphasize the chance of anything measurable at any given location remains less than 20%. The possibility will end Tuesday evening with dry weather the remainder of the week. Models are beginning to trend towards another low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California late Sunday through Tuesday of next week. On paper, it appears likely that some precipitation could occur, but keep in mind,, we’re a ways out. Still, the prospect is mighty pretty.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. A much colder air mass will arrive over the next 24 hours. Highs Tuesday will only be in the mid to upper 50s. lows Wednesday through Friday mornings will be widespread in the low to mid 30s. The threshold of this air mass appears to be 27 to 28 degrees in dry, low lying, frog pond terrain with low to mid 30s elsewhere. Some modification of the air mass will take place during the day Wednesday through Friday but I do anticipate similar temperature thresholds for Thursday and Friday mornings. Most locations Saturday and Sunday will range in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. We may get enough cloud cover Sunday morning for milder temperatures, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get there. The first part of next week looks unsettled for now so we’ll go with above freezing temperatures for that time frame.
Next report: February 15