February 16, 2022
The low pressure system that spawned some light showers in the south valley yesterday has raced eastward and is now centered near the Arizona/Mexico border. The air mass in the wake of this storm is quite chilly with widespread low to mid 30s this morning. Low to mid 30s will also be widespread tonight and again Thursday night. More in the frost discussion below. A large upper high will build inland over California via the eastern Pacific Ocean beginning today. This will allow daytime highs to begin to warm to above average beginning Thursday, continuing through Saturday. a cold low will develop in the Gulf of Alaska then will move southeastward into the western US beginning late Sunday and lasting through Tuesday of next week. Unlike yesterday’s system, this will be a very large low. It does have one characteristic similar to yesterday’s event and that is a lack of moisture. Even so, a chance of light scattered showers is appropriate to put in the forecast beginning Sunday night and lasting through Tuesday. Upper level high pressure will build in from the west again by the middle of next week for several days of dry weather. This system is also a cold one, so frost will be in the forecast once again Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Forecast: Variable clear skies through Saturday night. Increasing cloudiness late Sunday leading to a chance of scattered light showers Sunday night through Tuesday. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Becoming mostly clear Wednesday afternoon.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/32/68/33/69 | Reedley 63/32/67/33/68 | Dinuba 61/31/67/31/68 |
| Porterville 63/31/68/32/70 | Lindsay 62/30/68/31/69 | Delano 62/33/68/35/69 |
| Bakersfield 61/38/68/40/70 | Taft 61/45/65/44/65 | Arvin 63/35/68/37/70 |
| Lamont 62/34/68/35/71 | Pixley 61/32/68/33/69 | Tulare 61/30/68/32/69 |
| Woodlake 61/31/67/33/69 | Hanford 62/32/64/38/69 | Orosi 61/31/67/32/68 |
Seven Forecast
| Saturday
Mostly clear 37/70 |
Sunday
Increasing clouds 40/71 |
Monday
Chance of showers 40/68 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 33/58 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 31/57 |
Two Week Outlook: February 22 through February 29 This model looks completely different than in the recent past. A cold trough of low pressure will be along the west coast for below average temperatures and at least a chance at unsettled weather.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry conditions through Sunday. A chance of light scattered showers will begin Sunday night and last through Tuesday. Unlike yesterday’s event, this system is large in scope. But like yesterday’s event, it lacks moisture. Even so, I need to include a chance of light scattered showers in the forecast for the period. Dry weather will begin again Wednesday and will last for several days thereafter.
Frost: Upslope clouds mixed out during the course of the night. However there was a considerable amount of mixing in the atmosphere which maintained variable conditions from place to place. Tonight and again Thursday night will be stable with light to calm winds and clear skies with dew points generally in the low to mid 30s. Radiational cooling will be a factor, leading to widespread low to mid30s both nights. The threshold of this air mass in the very coldest terrain will be down to 27 to 28 for short durations with most locations, especially north of Kern County, ranging from 30 to 35. Hillsides will generally be above freezing. The inversion tonight will be stronger with temperatures at 34 feet generally 5 to 7 degrees lowers. With highs near 70 over the weekend, overnight lows will also moderate with generally above freezing conditions. The next system to affect central California Sunday night through Tuesday. The air mass behind this system will also be cold with another round of low to mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday with upper 20s possible.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
323 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
32 |
North bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
30 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/41% Porterville, 91%/46%. Midafternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 40%/. Tomorrow, 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .75, Parlier .73, Arvin .81, Orange Cove .69, Porterville .71, Delano .73. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 53, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 54, Delano 49. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 61/40. Record Temperatures: 80/27
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1669 -154, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.21 or 1.17. Monthly .00 -1.00
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.56 or -.13. Monthly, .00 -.61
Average Temperature this month: 52.8 -+2.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 832, Parlier, 970, Arvin, 815, Belridge, 875, Shafter, 834 Stratford, 971, Delano, 955, Porterville, 986. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:45, Sunset, 5:41, hours of daylight, 10:55
Yesterday’s weather
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 60 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 59 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 59 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 61 / 35 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 58 / 43 / T /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 57 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 57 / 36 / 0.00 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 55 / 47 / 0.00 /
MHV : Mojave AP 2785 : 48 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 96 6.86 81 8.51 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.15 107 6.37 84 7.59 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.85 83 5.91 84 7.07 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.19 19 6.28 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.21 82 5.11 80 6.38 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.61 97 3.05 64 4.73 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 3.56 96 1.81 49 3.69 6.36
BISHOP T 4.50 154 1.61 55 2.92 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.11 77 4.68 59 7.90 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.34 99 5.96 80 7.44 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 6.26 79 6.08 77 7.94 13.32
Next report: February 16 PM