Periods of showers continue to run from west to east across the valley this afternoon. Evening a few lightning strikes have been observed in Kings and Tulare Counties as of 1:00pm. Snow is falling down into the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and the Coast Range. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear some reports of small hail before the afternoon is up. The center of an arctic low is over central Nevada with the western side of the low arcing over northern and central California and just off shore. the chance of showers will be with us through tonight and up through the morning commute Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, the low will have shifted far enough to the east to take showers out of the forecast. The flow behind the exiting low and upper level high pressure building in from the west will be out of the north, slowing the modification process. A hard freeze is coming up Thursday through Saturday mornings which is discussed below. As the high continues to build into California over the weekend, temperatures will finally warm to acceptable levels during the day. Unfortunately, overnight lows will be slower to recover. Coldest locations even Sunday morning will chill to below freezing. By Monday, the atmosphere will have modified enough for above freezing conditions. Medium range models are showing a system moving through the Pacific Northwest and northern California Sunday, but it will be too far to the north to benefit us. However, some increase in clouds will be noted. At this point, all the medium range models point to dry conditions.
Forecast: Periods of showers tonight. A chance of showers through midmorning Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday night through Saturday night. Variable cloudiness Sunday and Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 30/52/26/55 | Reedley 31/51/26/57 | Dinuba 29/51/25/56 |
| Porterville 31/52/26/55 | Lindsay 29/51/25/55 | Delano 33/52/27/57 |
| Bakersfield 38/50/29/54 | Taft 37/48/34/51 | Arvin 34/51/28/54 |
| Lamont 34/52/27/55 | Pixley 31/52/26/56 | Tulare 30/51/25/54 |
| Woodlake 31/52/26/54 | Hanford 31/53/26/58 | Orosi 30/52/25/55 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph at times through early Wednesday evening with stronger gusts near showers or thunderstorms. Winds Wednesday night through Friday will be generally at or less than 8 to 15 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Radar is depicting a few thunderstorms out there this afternoon, no doubt with some small hail. Showers continue to rotate from west to east across the valley. This will continue tonight with a chance of showers through roughly mid morning Wednesday. Expect dry weather Wednesday afternoon and for the next seven days thereafter.
Frost: I mentioned a few days ago that I was hoping to get enough rain to wet the ground and that has happened, but only in certain areas. As of the time of this writing, a line of heavier showers and a few thunderstorms was tracking from Exeter down to Porterville with scattered showers elsewhere. I’m not really worried about tonight, although a few low lying areas could, if skies clear and winds die off, easily drop into the upper 20s. For the fourth model run in a row, using Porterville as my pilot station, blended model information pegs Porterville with a low of 27 Thursday morning, 28 on Friday, and 30 Saturday. Other models are similar in giving a bleak picture for this time frame. this will put those traditionally cold spots down to 23 to 25 degrees Thursday and Friday mornings and 25 to 27 Saturday morning. Most flatland locations will range from 25 to 29 degrees Thursday and Friday mornings with hillsides in the low to mid 30s. durations below 32 Thursday and Friday mornings may add up to 8 to 10 hours with readings at or below 28 from 2 to 4 hours in the coldest unprotected regions. Conditions will modify Saturday somewhat with coldest locations at 27 to 30 and 29 to 34 Sunday morning. After Sunday morning, we should be home free.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: February 23