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Forecast

2/22/22 afternoon report

Periods of showers continue to run from west to east across the valley this afternoon. Evening a few lightning strikes have been observed in Kings and Tulare Counties as of 1:00pm. Snow is falling down into the foothills of the Sierra Nevada and the Coast Range. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear some reports of small hail before the afternoon is up. The center of an arctic low is over central Nevada with the western side of the low arcing over northern and central California and just off shore. the chance of showers will be with us through tonight and up through the morning commute Wednesday. By Wednesday afternoon, the low will have shifted far enough to the east to take showers out of the forecast. The flow behind the exiting low and upper level high pressure building in from the west will be out of the north, slowing the modification process. A hard freeze is coming up Thursday through Saturday mornings which is discussed below. As the high continues to build into California over the weekend, temperatures will finally warm to acceptable levels during the day. Unfortunately, overnight lows will be slower to recover. Coldest locations even Sunday morning will chill to below freezing. By Monday, the atmosphere will have modified enough for above freezing conditions. Medium range models are showing a system moving through the Pacific Northwest and northern California Sunday, but it will be too far to the north to benefit us. However, some increase in clouds will be noted. At this point, all the medium range models point to dry conditions.

 

Forecast: Periods of showers tonight. A chance of showers through midmorning Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Mostly clear Thursday night through Saturday night. Variable cloudiness Sunday and Sunday night. Mostly clear Monday through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 30/52/26/55 Reedley 31/51/26/57 Dinuba 29/51/25/56
Porterville 31/52/26/55 Lindsay 29/51/25/55 Delano 33/52/27/57
Bakersfield 38/50/29/54 Taft 37/48/34/51 Arvin 34/51/28/54
Lamont 34/52/27/55 Pixley 31/52/26/56 Tulare 30/51/25/54
Woodlake 31/52/26/54 Hanford 31/53/26/58 Orosi 30/52/25/55

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph at times through early Wednesday evening with stronger gusts near showers or thunderstorms. Winds Wednesday night through Friday will be generally at or less than 8 to 15 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Radar is depicting a few thunderstorms out there this afternoon, no doubt with some small hail. Showers continue to rotate from west to east across the valley. This will continue tonight with a chance of showers through roughly mid morning Wednesday. Expect dry weather Wednesday afternoon and for the next seven days thereafter.

 

Frost: I mentioned a few days ago that I was hoping to get enough rain to wet the ground and that has happened, but only in certain areas. As of  the time of this writing, a line of heavier showers and a few thunderstorms was tracking from Exeter down to Porterville with scattered showers elsewhere. I’m not really worried about tonight, although a few low lying areas could, if skies clear and winds die off, easily drop into the upper 20s. For the fourth model run in a row, using Porterville as my pilot station, blended model information pegs Porterville with a low of 27 Thursday morning, 28 on Friday, and 30 Saturday. Other models are similar in giving a bleak picture for this time frame. this will put those traditionally cold spots down to 23 to 25 degrees Thursday and Friday mornings and 25 to 27 Saturday morning. Most flatland locations will range from 25 to 29 degrees Thursday and Friday mornings with hillsides in the low to mid 30s. durations below 32 Thursday and Friday mornings may add up to 8 to 10 hours with readings at or below 28 from 2 to 4 hours in the coldest unprotected regions. Conditions will modify Saturday somewhat with coldest locations at 27 to 30 and 29 to 34 Sunday morning. After Sunday morning, we should be home free.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

31

Ivanhoe

30

Woodlake

31

Strathmore

32

McFarland

30

Ducor

31

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

29

Exeter

30

Famoso

32

Madera

30

Belridge

30

Delano

32

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root Creek

30

Venice Hill

31

Rosedale

31

Jasmine

32

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

30

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

32

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: February 23