February 27, 2022
Cloud cover finally put an end to four nights of sub freezing weather. Most of the clouds are now moving into the southern part of the state. The air mass is moderately warmer with freezing levels up near 9,800 feet. High temperatures this afternoon will actually climb to a tad below average with above average temperatures Monday through Thursday. As a flat zone of high pressure extends from the eastern Pacific over California, the main storm track runs from southwest to northeast into the Pacific Northwest. The high will give way Thursday to a trough of low pressure extending from British Columbia to central California. For the second model run in a row, showers show up as far south as Kern County. If precipitation does occur, no more than a tenth or two is anticipated.
Behind this system, a large ridge will build northward into the Gulf of Alaska. Models show several disturbances riding southward along the eastern periphery of the high and into California, possibly offering up another small chance of showers Saturday and possibly again about Monday night or Tuesday. The flow will remain out of the north, driving temperatures below average again this weekend and for much of the following week. Currently, this pattern doesn’t appear as cold as the one from earlier this week, but local frost will again be possible on any night with clear skies.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today. Mostly clear tonight through Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. A chance of light showers Thursday and Thursday night. Partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. A slight chance of showers, mainly near the mountains, Saturday. Partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/34/72/38/75 | Reedley 69/34/73/38/75 | Dinuba 67/33/72/38/74 |
| Porterville 69/34/73/39/76 | Lindsay 68/33/72/38/75 | Delano 68/38/72/40/76 |
| Bakersfield 68/41/72/44/76 | Taft 65/46/70/50/73 | Arvin 69/38/73/41/77 |
| Lamont 70/38/73/41/77 | Pixley 69/35/73/39/75 | Tulare 67/33/73/37/74 |
| Woodlake 68/34/73/37/74 | Hanford 69/35/73/39/75 | Orosi 68/34/72/37/73 |
Seven Forecast
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 40/76 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 44/75 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 40/65 |
Saturday
Slight chance of showers 34/61 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 34/60 |
Two Week Outlook: March 6 through March 12: This model is indicating a trough of low pressure may be stretching from the Gulf of Alaska into the western US. The signature for rain, however, is small with temperatures returning to below average.
February: The guidance on this model does not show any particular pattern that would favor temperatures or precipitation. Basically, what it’s saying is there’s equal chances of above or below average rain as well as above or below average temperatures. Flip a coin.
February, March, April: There are no dominant trends on this model favoring above or below average precipitation. Temperatures during this period should be fairly close to seasonal values.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours, through Wednesday.
Rain: This is the second model run in a row suggesting at least a chance of light showers Thursday and Thursday night. If precipitation occurs at all, it will be quite light and more than likely not more than a tenth or two. A series of disturbances will rotate from north to south along the back side of high pressure over the eastern Pacific. Another slight chance of showers will occur Saturday and again around Tuesday of the following week. These types of systems are cold with a chance of showers over the mountain regions, but only a minor chance on the valley floor.
Frost: all locations will be above freezing tonight but near or only slightly above in the coldest locations. Above freezing conditions will continue through Friday morning. Low to mid 30s will become possible Saturday and for several days thereafter as a big high develops over the eastern Pacific and a cold low over the interior west causes the flow to become north to south. This will pump relatively cold air into California. Disturbances will be embedded within this system from time to time, causing occasional periods of unsettled weather. Any clear morning during this time will result in widespread low to mid 30s with a slight chance of upper 20s. we’ll have to tweak this as we go along.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 89%/28% Porterville, 99%/36%. Midafternoon dew points: Mid to upper 20s. Kern: Mid to upper 20s.
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 20%. Bakersfield: Today: 60%/. Tomorrow, 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .72, Parlier .63, Arvin .67, Orange Cove .61, Porterville .58, Delano .64. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 51, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 50, Delano NA. *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 64/42. Record Temperatures: 79/26
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1853 -110, Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 5.25 or -1.93. Monthly .00 -1.76
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, 3.67 or -.51. Monthly, .00 -.99
Average Temperature this month: 50.2 -0.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 944, Parlier, 1097, Arvin, 920, Belridge, 980, Shafter, 913 Stratford, 1089, Delano, 1082, Porterville, 1123. courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise. 6:31, Sunset, 5:52, hours of daylight, 11:20
Yesterday’s weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 30 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 60 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 62 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 63 / 27 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 62 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 60 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 61 / 31 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24h Seas % LY % Ave 365
STOCKTON 0.00 8.21 87 6.86 73 9.42 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 8.16 97 6.38 76 8.40 12.27
MERCED 0.00 5.87 74 5.92 75 7.91 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.19 17 7.04 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 5.25 74 5.11 72 7.11 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 4.78 91 3.05 58 5.28 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.67 89 1.81 44 4.13 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 4.50 138 1.61 49 3.26 4.84
SALINAS 0.00 6.18 70 4.73 54 8.78 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 7.37 88 5.96 71 8.36 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 6.33 70 6.08 68 9.00 13.32
Next report: February 27 PM