March 14, 2022
Central California is now in the western side of high pressure which is slowly shifting eastward. Off shore, a trough of low pressure is stretched from northeast to southwest across the eastern Pacific Ocean and will move on shore Tuesday and Tuesday night. The southern portion of this trough will lose much of its dynamics so any precipitation will be mainly north of a Monterey/Merced line. Even there, less than a tenth of an inch of rain is anticipated. It’s possible a few sprinkles could penetrate as far as Fresno County Tuesday.
A flat zone of upper level high pressure will follow, providing central California with dry weather through Friday night. The storm track will move Pacific disturbances through the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern one fourth of California. A stronger trough will break down the high off the California coast Saturday and will move inland Saturday night and Sunday with widespread shower activity. It appears this storm will spread precipitation as far south as the Mexico border. Hopefully, this will turn out to be a decent precipitation producer as behind this system will be a strong ridge of upper level high pressure which will cover the eastern Pacific Ocean with a ridge building northward into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest. This will effectively block any storms, creating at least a week’s worth of dry weather, if not more.
Forecast: Mostly clear this evening. Increasing cloudiness after midnight. Variable cloudiness Tuesday and Tuesday night. Sprinkles will be possible Tuesday and Tuesday night as far south as Fresno County with a chance of light showers from Merced County north. Mostly cloudy Wednesday morning in Kern County and eastern Tulare County with clearing skies elsewhere. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Friday night. Increasing cloudiness Saturday morning. Periods of rain Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Mostly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday in Kern and Tulare Counties with clearing skies elsewhere.
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Short Term:
| Madera 43/73/43/71 | Reedley 44/73/44/73 | Dinuba 41/72/44/73 |
| Porterville 41/74/44/73 | Lindsay 39/72/43/71 | Delano 44/74/45/73 |
| Bakersfield 48/73/50/71 | Taft 51/70/54/69 | Arvin 45/74/45/73 |
| Lamont 43/74/46/72 | Pixley 41/73/43/72 | Tulare 40/72/44/71 |
| Woodlake 43/73/44/73 | Hanford 44/72/45/74 | Orosi 39/72/43/71 |
Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph through Thursday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions,
Rain: Sprinkles are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night as far south as Fresno County. A few light showers are possible down to Merced County. Any shower activity will drop less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation. Expect dry weather Wednesday through Friday night.
Models are portraying a fairly strong trough moving through California this weekend. This far out, timing and potential amounts are somewhat speculative. On paper, it does appear to be a fairly substantial storm which could potentially drop decent amounts of rain, especially in the mountain areas. For now, it looks like daytime Saturday through Sunday morning is the best guesstimate for arrival. It looks like at least a week’s worth of dry weather will follow.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and for at least the next week.
Next report: March 15