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Forecast

March 16, 2022/report

March 16, 2022

Most of the valley has cleared out with the exception of much of Kern County and eastern Tulare County where upslope clouds are regenerating against the foothills. These clouds will be slow to clear this morning but drier air will eventually have its way with these clouds later today. The northwesterly flow we are currently under will become westerly as a flat zone of high pressure stretches from the mid Pacific Ocean to the west coast of north America. The storm track will steer weak disturbances into British Columbia and Washington and Oregon from time to time through Friday. The high will buckle Saturday, allowing a much stronger system to stretch from the Gulf of Alaska to off the southern California coast. It appears that late Saturday afternoon through roughly midmorning Sunday will be the best window of opportunity for widespread precipitation to spread over central California. This will be an elongated trough which will form a second low over southern California on Saturday, spreading showers all the way down into Baja. The precipitation should be fairly substantial, although I wouldn’t call it a full blown winter storm. Even so, six to twelve inches of new snow is certainly welcome over the high Sierra. This will be the last winter storm we’ll see for at least the next week. Models show a large high building in behind this system with a ridge extending into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest. This will provide at least a week’s worth of dry weather for central California. The new two week model doesn’t hold out much hope for rain for California as it’s calling for generally dry weather and above average temperatures through at least the 29th of the month.

 

Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy in Kern County and eastern Tulare County through mid morning with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Mostly clear this afternoon through Friday night with occasional high clouds. Increasing cloudiness Saturday morning, leading to a chance of rain Saturday afternoon. Rain likely Saturday night into Sunday morning. Clearing Sunday afternoon. Mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday with the exception of Kern County and southeastern

Tulare County which will remain mostly cloudy Sunday morning.  

 

Short Term:        

Madera 71/40/73/40/75 Reedley 73/39/73/40/76 Dinuba 72/38/73/40/75
Porterville 72/39/73/41/76 Lindsay 72/38/73/40/75 Delano 72/41/73/42/75
Bakersfield 71/46/74/47/75 Taft 68/51/71/52/73 Arvin 73/43/74/42/77
Lamont 72/43/74/42/76 Pixley 72/40/73/41/75 Tulare 70/38/73/40/75
Woodlake 72/39/73//41/74 Hanford 73/40/74/42/76 Orosi 72/38/73/40/75

 

Seven Day Forecast

Saturday

Pm rain

44/75

Sunday

Am rain

41/68

Monday

Partly cloudy

37/63

Tuesday

Mostly clear

42/71

Wednesday

Mostly clear

45/80

                                     

Two Week Outlook:  March 22 through March 28:  Upper level high pressure will build into the western ¼ of the US, resulting in a period of dry weather with temperatures rising to above average.

 

March:  The 30 day outlook for the month of March really does not show much guidance for either precipitation or temperatures. Essentially what it says is near average temperatures with near average precipitation.

 

March, April, May: The March, April, May period moves us into the traditional beginning of the dry season. This model is showing below average precipitation for most of the state. Guidance is fairly flat as far as temperatures are concerned as it indicates near average temperatures.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings will be out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph through Saturday. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions,

 

Rain:  dry weather will continue through Friday night. There will be a chance of rain as early as Saturday afternoon, but it still appears likely that Saturday night and early Sunday morning will provide us with the best opportunity for measurable rain.

 

Rainfall amounts from this system will range from a quarter to a third of an inch along the east side of the valley north of roughly a Porterville/Tipton line and a tenth to a quarter of a inch along the west side of the valley with perhaps a tenth or two over the valley portion of Kern County. This will be the last rain event we’ll see for a while as all of the medium range models show a protective shield of high pressure over the eastern Pacific, driving future storms to our north.

 

Frost:  Expect above freezing temperatures indefinitely.

 

Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 87%/36%  Porterville, 96%/35%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Mid to upper 30s.  Kern: Mid to upper 30s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 88%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 60%/. Tomorrow, 90%.

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.11, Parlier .98, Arvin 1.13, Orange Cove 1.04, Porterville .99, Delano 1.00. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 52, Parlier 56, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 55, Delano 51. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 68/44.  Record Temperatures: 88/33

Heating Degree Days This Season.  2036 -96. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.43 or -2.85.  Monthly  .18 -.79

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 4.35 or  -.52.  Monthly,  .68 +.07

Average Temperature this month: 54.0 -1.4 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129,  Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157.  courtesy UC Davis  

Sunrise. 7:07, Sunset, 7:08, hours of daylight, 11:59

Yesterday’s weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  72 /  48 /  0.03 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  70 /  49 /     T /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  71 /  54 /     T /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  73 /  51 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  74 /  48 /     T /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  75 /  53 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  73 /  50 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  74 /  47 /  0.00 /

IYK   : Inyokern AP     2455 :  77 /  51 /  0.00 /

MHV   : Mojave AP       2785 :  70 /  54 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                      24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave             365

STOCKTON                      0.14    8.35    78    7.60    71    10.68    13.45

MODESTO                       0.06    8.23    86    6.95    73     9.56    12.27

MERCED                        0.03    5.91    65    6.80    75     9.09    11.80

MADERA                           T       M     M    1.47    18     8.30    10.79

FRESNO                           T    5.43    66    6.02    73     8.28    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    5.29    85    3.86    62     6.19     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    4.35    89    2.32    48     4.87     6.36

BISHOP                           T    4.50   123    1.62    44     3.67     4.84

SALINAS                          T    6.26    62    5.50    54    10.14    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    7.37    74    6.53    65     9.97    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.35    60    6.82    64    10.67    13.32

Next report: March 16 pm

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.