March 16, 2022
A stubborn layer of upslope clouds continues to regenerate from roughly Exeter on the north to the base of the Tehachapi Mountains on the south. Meadow’s Field is reporting a broken layer of clouds based at 3,700 feet while Porterville is also reporting a broken layer of clouds based at 3,000 feet. The remainder of the valley is enjoying abundant sunshine. It’s a bit breezier than usual this afternoon with winds generally out of the northwest in the 8 to 15 mph range, although Lemoore was reporting gusts up to 28 mph. currently, a northwesterly flow is moving over central California along the far eastern side of high pressure off shore. As that high builds inland, the flow will become west to east with weak disturbances moving inland through the Pacific Northwest, but too far to the north to affect central California. The big weather event of this week will arrive Saturday, primarily in the afternoon as the parent low in the Gulf of Alaska digs a cold trough southward all the way to southern California.
Models this afternoon continue to indicate that this system has decent dynamics so with a little bit of luck, much of central California will get a good soaking. The best window of opportunity continues to be later Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. It will be a fast mover as a ridge of upper level high pressure will cover the eastern Pacific, building a ridge into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, creating a northeast flow aloft. This off shore flow, combined with building high pressure will result in the warmest temperatures so far this spring late next week. For now, it looks like, by Thursday and Friday, widespread low to mid 80s will be possible.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday night with the exception of eastern Kern and Tulare Counties which will remain partly cloudy through the evening hours. Increasing cloudiness Saturday with rain becoming likely, especially during the afternoon. Rain at times Saturday night. A chance of showers at times Sunday morning, becoming partly cloudy Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday but remaining mostly to partly cloudy in easter Tulare County and Kern County, which will remain partly cloudy through midday Sunday.
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Short Term:
| Madera 39/73/40/75 | Reedley 40/74/42/75 | Dinuba 38/72/40/74 |
| Porterville 39/74//41/76 | Lindsay 38/73/40/76 | Delano 42/74/43/75 |
| Bakersfield 49/75/47/76 | Taft 51/72/51/73 | Arvin 44/74/45/76 |
| Lamont 43/74/45/77 | Pixley 40/73/42/75 | Tulare 38/72/41/74 |
| Woodlake 39/73//41/75 | Hanford 41/73/42/76 | Orosi 38/73/41/74 |
Wind Discussion: Winds through the early evening hours will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 25 mph, mainly along the west side. These winds will decrease during the evening, becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds Thursday through Friday night will be generally less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and early morning hours. Winds Saturday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts, becoming out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts possible, diminishing Saturday night.
Rain: Saturday afternoon and Saturday night is still the bulls-eye for the only rain event we’ll see for probably the next 10 days. On the east side of the valley along a Porterville/Tipton line, a quarter to one-third of an inch seems possible with local amounts as high as a half-inch. Along the western side of Merced, Fresno, and Kings Counties, around a tenth to a quarter of an inch is likely with a tenth or two over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will begin Sunday and continue for at least the following seven days, and possibly ten days.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and for at least the next week.
Next report: March 17