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Forecast

March 25, 2022/report

March 25, 2022

For the second day in a row, warmest locations hit the 90 degree mark yesterday. Fresno, Hanford, and Lemoore are crowned with the top scores. Average temperatures for this time of year hover around the 70 degree mark. Temperatures will very slowly come down, although temperatures this weekend will remain unusually warm. Marine air is trying to push through the Delta. Winds at Travis AFB are currently gusting to 28 mph. However, the marine layer is too shallow to tug that modified sea breeze all the way down the valley.

 

Strong upper level high pressure continues to stretch from the eastern Pacific Ocean, across California and into the interior west. The high has flattened somewhat over the Pacific Northwest. Readings today and Saturday will still warm into the mid to upper 80s, falling into the lower 80s Sunday as the high begins to collapse ahead of a low pressure system currently out over the Pacific. It will begin to approach the coast Sunday night. Models show the center of circulation with this storm moving across south-central California Monday evening. It will be borderline to see  if the coolest and most unstable part of the low moves overhead during mid to late afternoon. If it does, isolated thunderstorms will percolate with localized heavy rain and small hail Monday afternoon and evening.

 

Showers will continue Monday night with the back side of the storm clearing the Sierra Nevada by early Tuesday. The low should be over Arizona during the day Tuesday then accelerate over the Texas panhandle by Wednesday. Upper level high pressure will fill in behind the exiting low for several days of dry weather. There will be high clouds mixing in with the sunshine through Saturday. They pose no threat of precipitation

 

Forecast: Outside of occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through tonight. Partly cloudy Saturday and Saturday night. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. Showers Sunday night, mainly after midnight. Periods of showers Monday and Monday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. A chance of a few lingering showers early Tuesday morning, otherwise mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday. Clearing Tuesday night but remaining mostly cloudy in eastern Tulare County and Kern County through Wednesday morning. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Friday.

 

Short Term:        

Madera 87/51/86/51/86 Reedley 88/50/87/52/80 Dinuba 86/51/85/52/79
Porterville 88/52/86/52/81 Lindsay 87/50/86/51/80 Delano 89/54/86/53/81
Bakersfield 88/61/88/59/82 Taft 85/65/84/61/80 Arvin 89/55/88/54/82
Lamont 89/54/87/55/82 Pixley 86/51/86/52/82 Tulare 86/50/86/51/81
Woodlake 87/50/86/50/81 Hanford 88/53/87/52/79 Orosi 87/51/86/52/79

 

Seven Day Forecast

Monday

Showers likely

47/80

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy

44/67

Wednesday

Mostly clear

42/68

Thursday

Mostly clear

43/75

Friday

Mostly clear

43/73

 

                               

Two Week Outlook:  April 1 through April 7: This model indicates a dome of high pressure will be right along the Pacific coast, resulting in somewhat above average temperatures. The chance of precipitation during this period will be very low.

 

April:  April is a transition month as we move from springtime weather to early summer weather at the end of the month. This model indicates above average temperatures over the southern half of the Golden State with near average temperatures over northern and central California. Precipitation will range below average.

 

April, May, June: This model shows above average temperatures over the Desert Southwest, stretching westward to California. With high pressure generally in control, expect below average precipitation…which doesn’t mean much now that we’re headed into the dry season.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and early evenings through Saturday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Sunday will be out of the east to southeast at 5 to 12 mph, increasing to 8 to 15 mph Sunday night with stronger gusts. Winds Monday will be out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to near 30 mph possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Winds Monday night will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph, diminishing after midnight.

 

Rain:  A complex low pressure system will begin to spread precipitation over central California Sunday night, mainly after midnight. Most of the model information this morning show the center of circulation somewhere near Santa Maria by Monday evening. Even though this system isn’t particularly cold, it appears to have decent dynamics. Add some daytime heating to this scenario, and some isolated thunderstorms could be triggered Monday afternoon and evening. Quantitative precipitation estimates from blended model information indicates there’s a good chance of .25 to .50 from Fresno County south. Heaviest precipitation from this event will be over southern California where 1 to 2 inches is possible over the mountain areas from San Luis Obispo County southward to the Mexico border. Interestingly enough, this model shows Bakersfield having the potential to pick up .50 with Porterville .66. Dry weather will return by Tuesday morning with the remainder of the week remaining dry.

 

Frost:  Expect above freezing temperatures indefinitely.

 

Actual Humidity range Yesterday: Delano, 79%/29%  Porterville, 82%/28%.  Midafternoon dew points:  Mid to upper 40s.  Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 40%.  Bakersfield: Today: 80%/. Tomorrow, 50%.

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.19, Parlier 1.00, Arvin 1.17, Orange Cove 1.00, Porterville 1.01, Delano 1.02. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford, 55, Parlier 59, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 60, Delano 57. *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 69/45.  Record Temperatures: 85/32

Cooling Degree Days This Season.  9 +9. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  5.45 or -3.36.  Monthly  .20 -1.30

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season, 4.54 or  +0.5.  Monthly,  .87 -.05

Average Temperature this month: 56.5 -0.6 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 973, Parlier, 1129,  Arvin, 953, Belridge, 1016, Shafter, 934 Stratford, 1116, Delano, 1113, Porterville, 1157.  courtesy UC Davis  

Sunrise. 6:53, Sunset, 7:15, hours of daylight, 12:20

Yesterday’s weather:

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  87 /  52 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  89 /  51 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  90 /  59 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  90 /  57 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  90 /  54 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  88 /  59 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  87 /  54 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  88 /  53 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                      24h            Seas            %          LY              %             Ave             365

STOCKTON                      0.00    8.36    75    7.84    70    11.19    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00    8.23    82    7.12    71    10.03    12.27

MERCED                        0.00    6.31    66    6.97    73     9.55    11.80

MADERA                        0.00       M     M       M     M     8.81    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    5.45    62    6.44    73     8.81    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    5.30    80    4.13    63     6.59     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    4.54    88    2.58    50     5.18     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    4.50   118    1.62    43     3.80     4.84

SALINAS                       0.00    6.41    60    5.70    53    10.69    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    7.55    71    6.73    63    10.64    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.38    56    6.86    60    11.37    13.32

Next report: March 25 pm

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.