March 26, 2022
Visible satellite imagery at this hour is rather interesting from my chair. Our developing low is located roughly 800 miles to the west of the northwest California coast and is moving east/southeast. The current visible picture almost looks like the eye of a hurricane. It’s not, of course, but it is indicative of an intensifying Pacific storm. We will have to deal with several elements with this storm. As it approaches the central coast Sunday afternoon, pressure differences between the high deserts and rapidly falling pressure off shore may kick up some strong, gusty southeast winds in the extreme south valley. This would be places such as the bottom of the Grapevine, Mettler, Taft, and the Arvin/Edison area. Winds of 40 to 50 mph cannot be ruled out. Also, some gusty southeast winds may become a problem along the west side of the valley, especially up the Interstate 5 corridor where areas of blowing dust would be possible. Gusts to near 40 aren’t out of the realm of possibility.
Challenge number 2 will be the chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Some models this afternoon are showing the coldest and most unstable air sliding southeastward just to our southwest. This means the most ideal conditions for thunderstorms will be just to our west, reducing the chance of thunderstorms. However, I would be a fool to take the chance of thunderstorms out of the forecast.
The next challenge is rainfall amounts, which is discussed below in the rainfall summary.
Models show the center of circulation just west of Monterey Monday morning and over southern San Luis Obispo County Monday evening. It will be over the Yuma region by midday Tuesday. Heaviest precipitation will be from southern San Luis Obispo County southward to the Mexico border. It’s’ been quite some time since southern California has enjoyed a good soaking, so they’re overdue. Dry weather will return early Tuesday morning and will continue through the remainder of next week. temperatures will only reach marginally above average, which is in the lower 70s this time of year.
Forecast: Mostly clear through the late evening hours with high clouds at times. Partly cloudy after midnight. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. Showers spreading in from the west Sunday evening. Showers Sunday night through Monday night with a small risk of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. A chance of showers before roughly 8:00am Tuesday. Otherwise, expect clearing skies with the exception of Kern County and eastern Tulare County which will remain mostly cloudy through Wednesday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Saturday.
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Short Term:
| Madera 51/80/53/65 | Reedley 52/81/52/66 | Dinuba 51/81/52/65 |
| Porterville 51/82/50/67 | Lindsay 49/80/51/64 | Delano 52/82/53/65 |
| Bakersfield 58/85/53/68 | Taft 60/80/55/65 | Arvin 53/84/54/68 |
| Lamont 53/85/52/70 | Pixley 51/82/49/65 | Tulare 50/81/48/66 |
| Woodlake 50/81/49/65 | Hanford 52/80/50/66 | Orosi 50/81/49/65 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 mph tonight. Sunday’s forecast is pretty complex. I look for certain types of configurations that lead to high wind in the south valley. The configuration for Sunday afternoon and night is pretty close as a deepening upper level and surface low approach the coast near Monterey with falling barometric pressure while high pressure remains over the high deserts and the Great Basin. This could potentially put the squeeze play on down the canyons of the Tehachapi Mountains down to the valley floor Sunday afternoon and night. I would not rule out winds approaching 50 mph in real estate near the base of the Kern County mountains. once the low begins to move on shore, pressures will equalize and the winds will die off. Another area of concern is the Interstate 5 corridor where gusts to near 40 mph are possible. The remainder of the growing area can expect winds out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts. By Monday evening, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts, diminishing after midnight. Winds Tuesday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph, becoming light and variable Tuesday evening.
Rain: Rain will be reaching the central coast by late Sunday afternoon and will begin to spread into the valley from the west after midnight Sunday. Periods of showers will continue Sunday night through Monday night with possibly some lingering showers in the south valley through the morning commute. A small chance of isolated thunderstorms will be with us from mainly midafternoon Monday through the evening hours. Localized heavy rain and small hail are the main concerns. The south valley still shows up as the region with the heaviest rainfall potential. Blended model information this afternoon spits out a number of .57 at Porterville and .35 at Bakersfield with near half inch totals in much of Kings and Tulare Counties. Precipitation further north is expected to be lighter. Again, the main event with this storm will be in southern California. Dry weather will return Tuesday and continue through the remainder of next week.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and for at least the next week.
Next report: March 27